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November Mid/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second

Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues. 

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31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second

The models are like the budget passers! They never deliver what they say when they say the will and kick the cold and potential storms down the road. Here we go again! I have seen this time and time again! HOWEVER, I would not mind seeing some flakes next week.. but soon we may get barely any precip and it could be a dry frontal passage! I hope not! My pessimism is rising. 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues. 

Ya.. I DO NOT like the trends. Not saying models have it figured out, but lately, when they do, things turn dry and less cold. 

 

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53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second

Notably the GEFS has not had these crazy swings like that last 2 runs of the GFS, although it certainly has tended to weaken the big Tuesday/Wednesday low pressure.

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16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This board can seriously f*cking suck sometimes.

Look, it is the same every year! When things look like they are trending wrong for our need of rain, cold, snow.. people are going to speak up. This is a definite trend on the last few model runs. Dryer systems has been a trend for many months now, so we should not be surprised. It stinks when we see these things happen, and we will express that. I agree I need to be less emotionally charged, but these Thanksgiving colder outlooks have failed multiple times the last few years. I think this should make me and others to take changes with caution. It stinks! Changing airmasses and patterns are likely to have problems! You do not need to stick around.. and but I will work on better posts! :)

 

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23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We're already in mid-winter form.

Canceling winter before it even starts.

In a -PDO/+ENSO battle like this season, there's going to be a lot more of this.

At least it won't be boring like last winter.

Just look at the models... STJ is becoming more and more active.

This is what I'm focusing on. I love seeing the Nino start to flex, so from there we can have a little more confidence in things progressing in a fashion that many of the smart folk are foreseeing.

It's November, so it's not supposed to snow IMBY, nor in the backyards of most of us on here. We need Manchester to get an inch in the next few weeks, but otherwise we just keep an eye on the progression of the atmospheric response to the Nino and hope for the best!

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is what I'm focusing on. I love seeing the Nino start to flex, so from there we can have a little more confidence in things progressing in a fashion that many of the smart folk are foreseeing.

It's November, so it's not supposed to snow IMBY, nor in the backyards of most of us on here. We need Manchester to get an inch in the next few weeks, but otherwise we just keep an eye on the progression of the atmospheric response to the Nino and hope for the best!

Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25??

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25??

Winter is canceled for the foreseeable future till nuclear winter kicks in. 

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