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November Mid/Long Range Discussion


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3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20

AO goes negative 11/24

Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range.

Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away.. 

Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day. 

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17 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November.

No such thing as guaranteed 

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10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

that's true but it's pretty much guaranteed when you have that type of signature and u have a whole tpv lobe coming down with a storm

Looks like it will be chilly for a spell.

The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see.

Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.

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48 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November.

This will be our first test to see if we'll see a juiced up, cold verification or bust.

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19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like it will be chilly for a spell.

The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see.

Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.

When it likely doesn’t snow later this month in most places here (except the mountains + favored far NW places), get ready for the complaints that “the pattern didn’t deliver and get ready for a winter of disappointment” posts.  The reality is this is way too early in the season for the majority of us.  

I am just really happy to see that it’s not wall to wall pac puke right now.  

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

When it likely doesn’t snow later this month in most places here (except the mountains + favored far NW places), get ready for the complaints that “the pattern didn’t deliver and get ready for a winter of disappointment” posts.  The reality is this is way too early in the season for the majority of us.  

I am just really happy to see that it’s not wall to wall pac puke right now.  

I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter.

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1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November.

We have a major winnah.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter.

I hope you guys get completely destroyed, by cold and by snow! You are overdue and it is HIGH TIME! Why not get an early start?!!!!!

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think its gonna snow way earlier than normal for lowlanders. Accumulating? Maybe not. But the cold coming isnt a joke either. Its gonna be shocking for some people the week after Thanksgiving is going to be straight up winter.

I just re-upped my WxBell subscription so I’ll bill you if you’re wrong. :P 

 

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54 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Look whats dropping in from Central Canada after Thanksgiving brother. No joke its COLD.

gfs_T2m_us_28.png

For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. We don't want some shot of cold air directed right over us like last winter because it just jacks up the pattern and we get stuck in cold and dry for a few days.

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. We don't want some shot of cold air directed right over us like last winter because it just jacks up the pattern and we get stuck in cold and dry for a few days.

Such an early cold shot though. I will take it right now. Pretty much everything is lining us up for a nice winter. As long as PSU gets a god damn inch we are good. :)

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west.

Haven't we played that game multiple times the last few years?  The cold gets trapped in the west and can't make it over the mountains while we toast.  The eastern CONUS loses either way.  I enjoyed the Christmas cold shot last year for what it was.  I definitely enjoyed it more than the 2015 torch.

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3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Haven't we played that game multiple times the last few years?  The cold gets trapped in the west and can't make it over the mountains while we toast.  The eastern CONUS loses either way.  I enjoyed the Christmas cold shot last year for what it was.  I definitely enjoyed it more than the 2015 torch.

Yes that can happen, but typically it's reserved for a La Nina year where the southeast ridge is pumped up and just deflects everything away from us.

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