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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HIE was 45° this morning

It was hot inside yesterday evening after 87F and dews into the 60s.  Temp was higher in many spots up north than they were in August.  But if I was dealing with window units then they’d be out and I’d be fine.  But flip the switch, cool and dry it out while eating dinner and the evening.

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Yeah, this synoptic evolution incoming is completely new ...

Should not be confused or compared, or assumed to be a part of the stagnated wet/humid/warm persistence of the last 90 days. 

This is a wholesale new pattern orientation that is setting up because of an obtrusion of +PNA. The restructuring of the pattern is taking place with rapidity, and this storm that winds up over Ontario and the colder regime coming in underneath and all that, is completely uncharted waters. 

Anyway, the behavior of this isn't like a slow moving trough along 90W with a persistent PWAT delivery. It's more like an active frontal boundary that is tipping negative but will progress quickly through. It may rain hard along an axis (est Berkshire/Greens) but it's outta of there probably in 4-6 hours maybe faster.  Showery everywhere else.  

I'm actually wondering if we may see a low top ribbon echo squall or broken feature thereof, with some heftier wind gusts.  There may also be a wind burst in the back side as the pressure well deepens and cuts W and sends an undebelly restoring force across NYS and C/NNE.   I've seen louder signals for that, but there is some look about this.

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty cool visible earlier this morning. It outlines exactly in SNE where the hills/ elevations are. Totally clear with fog everywhere else. I’ve never seen it so defined like this. 

 

0QICXqr.png

In the dank still up here, but it’s eroding. 
image.gif

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It was hot inside yesterday evening after 87F and dews into the 60s.  Temp was higher in many spots up north than they were in August.  But if I was dealing with window units then they’d be out and I’d be fine.  But flip the switch, cool and dry it out while eating dinner and the evening.

Looks like I am coming up just in time for the rain and cool down lol. Anyway what happened to the NNE threads?

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is a high-end anomalous air mass, at least in NNE.  Record warmth from Adirondacks/Whiteface to Greens/Mansfield to Whites/Washington.  So it's obviously a torch at the H85 level.

I'm a nerd and love seeing the elevational differences in different situations.  The lower levels this time of year seem to be the hardest to mix out... surface inversion hard to mix out in some drainages/valleys?  The spot that mixes the deepest aloft wins the surface temperature award?  The elevated mountain valleys going the same temps as the larger low valleys.  At full dry adiabatic rates, some of these temps would bring 90+ under 500ft.

Some high-end heat in the Adirondacks.  The fact that 2000ft in elevation was warmer than any day in August for a couple day stretch seems noteworthy.

ASRC.jpg.693fe47ec6c98628510f6abdc91787e8.jpg

Yes, I think you are right. This time of the year it becomes harder to fully mix out that low layer inversion, with the lower sun angle. It was also very calm - even the Mt. Washington summit had calm winds for a time (well, 1 mph officially).

For the record, the 86F at Saranac Lake tied October 3, 1941, and October 11, 1919, for the monthly record in the threaded history. Saranac Lake, of course, is a place with some elevational changes, so I don't know how representative those earlier records are. Since the station moved to the airport in 1998, the highest observed in October had been 80F, on October 5, 2007. So the last two days, were one of only 3 80+ days since 1998.

Additionally, Syracuse reached 89F, setting a new October monthly record. The existing record was only a few years old: 88F, 10/1/2019.

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is a high-end anomalous air mass, at least in NNE.  Record warmth from Adirondacks/Whiteface to Greens/Mansfield to Whites/Washington.  So it's obviously a torch at the H85 level.

I'm a nerd and love seeing the elevational differences in different situations.  The lower levels this time of year seem to be the hardest to mix out... surface inversion hard to mix out in some drainages/valleys?  The spot that mixes the deepest aloft wins the surface temperature award?  The elevated mountain valleys going the same temps as the larger low valleys.  At full dry adiabatic rates, some of these temps would bring 90+ under 500ft.

Some high-end heat in the Adirondacks.  The fact that 2000ft in elevation was warmer than any day in August for a couple day stretch seems noteworthy.

ASRC.jpg.693fe47ec6c98628510f6abdc91787e8.jpg

At the Mount Washington summit, the high was 61F and the low 53F yesterday. Both of these values were the second highest observed in the month of October. Unlike Whiteface, Mount Washington reached 30F on the 26th of September; however, this is the first year not to have dropped below 30F by this point in the calendar year. There were some apparent issues with the equipment, so some missing data is noted. However, it was earlier in the summer and highly doubtful there would be anything colder than the 9-26 reading.

image.png.268029b06d88049823e6959261ed0e63.png

 

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, this synoptic evolution incoming is completely new ...

Should not be confused or compared, or assumed to be a part of the stagnated wet/humid/warm persistence of the last 90 days. 

This is a wholesale new pattern orientation that is setting up because of an obtrusion of +PNA. The restructuring of the pattern is taking place with rapidity, and this storm that winds up over Ontario and the colder regime coming in underneath and all that, is completely uncharted waters. 

Anyway, the behavior of this isn't like a slow moving trough along 90W with a persistent PWAT delivery. It's more like an active frontal boundary that is tipping negative but will progress quickly through. It may rain hard along an axis (est Berkshire/Greens) but it's outta of there probably in 4-6 hours maybe faster.  Showery everywhere else.  

I'm actually wondering if we may see a low top ribbon echo squall or broken feature thereof, with some heftier wind gusts.  There may also be a wind burst in the back side as the pressure well deepens and cuts W and sends an undebelly restoring force across NYS and C/NNE.   I've seen louder signals for that, but there is some look about this.

Uncharted waters?  How is it uncharted? 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

People are using AC? Even you Diane?

Holy shit.

Only my bedroom. I have a small one bedroom house and the last owner converted the attic space into a bedroom. It gets ridiculously hot since there is no good ventilation and all the heat from the house rises into the upper space. I haven't used it in the main part of the house. 

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

At the Mount Washington summit, the high was 61F and the low 53F yesterday. Both of these values were the second highest observed in the month of October. Unlike Whiteface, Mount Washington reached 30F on the 26th of September; however, this is the first year not to have dropped below 30F by this point in the calendar year. There were some apparent issues with the equipment, so some missing data is noted. However, it was earlier in the summer and highly doubtful there would be anything colder than the 9-26 reading.

image.png.268029b06d88049823e6959261ed0e63.png

 

Do you also report when there is record cold observed?  Or second lowest readings?

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We use Ac in the bedroom at night. Bedroom is super warm. I don't mind it cold as long as I can wrap myself up. I usually end up looking like a caterpillar getting ready to become a butterfly. One of these days I expect to wake up as a butterfly and flutter around the house :lol:  

Just don't fly into a spider's web or your worst nightmare will come true.

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What about June?

The post was in response to @powderfreak's post about a lack of a freeze on Whiteface Mountain. I was sharing the coldest reading of the early fall season at Mount Washington. June cold would be considered late spring. Honestly, July could go either way and normally it wouldn't matter because 99% of the low elevation locations in the country have probably never had a July freeze, but Mount Washington regularly drops below freezing in all months of the year. Tldr: the July 1 cutoff was used to show the coldest reading so far this late summer/fall.

The fact that it hasn't dropped below 34F on the Whiteface Mtn. summit, or below 30F on the Mount Washington summit, is pretty significant. It's been as cold as 28F by this point of the calendar year, even in the Boston urban heat island.

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We use Ac in the bedroom at night. Bedroom is super warm. I don't mind it cold as long as I can wrap myself up. I usually end up looking like a caterpillar getting ready to become a butterfly. One of these days I expect to wake up as a butterfly and flutter around the house :lol:  

You're more likely to wake up to be a spider and crawl out of bed.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty cool visible earlier this morning. It outlines exactly in SNE where the hills/ elevations are. Totally clear with fog everywhere else. I’ve never seen it so defined like this. 

 

0QICXqr.png

You definitely are in CENTRAL CT if that pic shows your elevation 

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