Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: The limiting factor here isn't really SSTs. Don't listen to certain unproductive posters on here crap on it because of that. The real limiting factor is dry air. The 12z hurricane models all have a skeletal type of hurricane, devoid of convection on the right side mainly, making landfall. This already can be seen in the current radar appearance, struggling with some convection on the east side. That being said it's constructing a legit core and I am really interested of where this goes over next several hours. I think 60-70 knots at landfall. This is 100% correct strong blocking high pressure is sending down the dry air off the Northern Mid Atlantic Coasts up to Novia Scotia here in SE PA the dewpoint is 46 so there is that now the dews are rising here though but still we sit 450 miles north of the center and there is 46-degree dewpoints here so there has to be an affect I would think down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Area of highest winds seems to be expanding rather than increasing. Consistent with most models in this regard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Still lots of shear over Ophelia, but a pretty strong weakening trend in shear values. It's pretty easy to tell why this has managed to wrap up it's core a bit 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Norfolk Airport, over 250 miles+ away, is sustained at 40 MPH gusting to 53 MPH. Impressive wind field and on ground verification. Even Wallops Island, Delaware is sustained at 36 gusting to 51. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 When do the worst of the winds start for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Norfolk Airport, over 250 miles+ away, is sustained at 40 MPH gusting to 53 MPH. Impressive wind field and on ground verification. Even Wallops Island, Delaware is sustained at 36 gusting to 51. Wallops Island is in Virginia. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 No change on the 8pm advisory.8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22Location: 33.3°N 76.6°WMoving: NNW at 12 mphMin pressure: 984 mbMax sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: No change on the 8pm advisory.8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22Location: 33.3°N 76.6°WMoving: NNW at 12 mphMin pressure: 984 mbMax sustained: 70 mph Pressure lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Norfolk Airport, over 250 miles+ away, is sustained at 40 MPH gusting to 53 MPH. Impressive wind field and on ground verification. Even Wallops Island, Delaware is sustained at 36 gusting to 51. @WestBabylonWeather RIP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Rip wabs power for the rest of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said: When do the worst of the winds start for central NC A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: This is 100% correct strong blocking high pressure is sending down the dry air off the Northern Mid Atlantic Coasts up to Novia Scotia here in SE PA the dewpoint is 46 so there is that now the dews are rising here though but still we sit 450 miles north of the center and there is 46-degree dewpoints here so there has to be an affect I would think down the coast. Yep. Those dew points should effectively affect things down the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am NWS says we’ve had a gust to 31 but I have yet to see a limb move 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Kind of a skeletal look due to the dry air, and I think this is temporary, but this is the most organized we've seen the COC. I think it's temporary organization but it's reasonable, for the moment, it's at 75 MPH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Kind of a skeletal look due to the dry air, and I think this is temporary, but this is the most organized we've seen the COC. I think it's temporary organization but it's reasonable, for the moment, it's at 75 MPH. Compared to the models the center looks like it is east of where they had it on the model runs at 12 and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: You can clearly see the high-pressure gradient winds Kitty Hawk North to Lewes Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Area of highest winds seems to be expanding rather than increasing. Consistent with most models in this regard. Yep, I'd expect this over time as the storm becomes a mid latitude like low north of the VA / NC Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Kind of a skeletal look due to the dry air, and I think this is temporary, but this is the most organized we've seen the COC. I think it's temporary organization but it's reasonable, for the moment, it's at 75 MPH. As expected, this was temporary and the eyewall feature collapsed. However, it made the storm slightly more symmetrical as a whole while doing so. This is important to note for surge and potential frictional convergence enhancers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 TEAL72 is up out of Keesler for the next recon stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 what a beaut 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Winds still at 70mph11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22Location: 33.6°N 76.8°WMoving: NNW at 12 mphMin pressure: 984 mbMax sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 3 hours ago, chris21 said: Wallops Island is in Virginia. Wallops will be good to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Been gusting into the 40s for 5 or 6 hours with maybe a few touching 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Surf City NC: Pier Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Still at 984 on the latest recon pass. Fresh convection popping up in the western half with a decent amount of lightning. Might get another small drop in pressure before landfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 We have had some power outages here in SEVA. Newport News Intl top wind gust has been 39 MPH so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Frictional convergence making an organized structure at the last moment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 000 WTNT61 KNHC 231020 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA... Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h). SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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