Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm wondering if it's still raining at that point. Low pressure is still over southern MD Monday morning If so, it's really slow-other models have the low well north or east by Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If so, it's really slow-other models have the low well north or east by Monday AM It’s more west than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCPOW Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: CMC still showing a big soaker for saturday on the 12z run. Rain gets going mid morning. I hope not. We are taking the kids up to State College for the white out game on Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah like the euro it keeps going thru Wednesday As Allsnow said, we just can't get rid of this rainy pattern. I was hoping for a nice weekend, but what are you going to do. Will take advantage of the beautiful weather we have now during the week. I'm heading to Hunterdon County to do some hiking and will stop at Polar Cub for some ice cream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: As Allsnow said, we just can't get rid of this rainy pattern. I was hoping for a nice weekend, but what are you going to do. Will take advantage of the beautiful weather we have now during the week. I'm heading to Hunterdon County to do some hiking and will stop at Polar Cub for some ice cream. I've passed that place many times but never stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 the cmc track would bring a tornado threat up the coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The high pressure to the north might limit how far north the rain gets….just something to watch for now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, NCPOW said: I hope not. We are taking the kids up to State College for the white out game on Saturday night. Bring ponchos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCPOW Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Bring ponchos Already got them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I've passed that place many times but never stopped Give it a try sometime. They do a lot of great special soft serve flavors. I am gonna get soft graham cracker today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The high pressure to the north might limit how far north the rain gets….just something to watch for now you can see that on the Ukie and even the Euro, it only gets so far north before being shunted east. The CMC seems to be a western outlier at this point.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 My flight home sat night isnt looking so hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the cmc track would bring a tornado threat up the coast How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, David-LI said: How come? we get the unstable side of the storm along with good shear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: How come? High SRH values and backed flow. In general, the eastern part of any significant low pressure system has the highest probabilities for severe weather (that's obviously broad-brushing it a bit, but you get the idea). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Euro's going to be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Euro's going to be a miss It was a miss at 12z yesterday also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 weird to see the euro less organized than the others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Model mayhem time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Model mayhem time Feb 2010 just a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 There would be weenies lining up on the GW to jump if this were winter.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Eps is still close to the coast with over a inch on the mean for nyc fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I've passed that place many times but never stopped Best ice cream around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Icon fwiw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: weird to see the euro less organized than the others Euro hasn't been doing the best lately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Gfs has rain from Saturday morning through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Frigid 76 today. Lit the wood stove around noon to keep warm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will generally top out in the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Nights will see readings in the 50s in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia with 40s possible in some of the colder suburbs. Another storm could bring a significant rainfall to the region Saturday night into Sunday. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America as September concludes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -25.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.591 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.646 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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