September 2023

[winterwx21]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Getting crushed now in cranford Garwood area

Epic storm wow

Cells starting to pop up in eastern Somerset county and southwestern Middlesex county. It has missed this area so far, but I think it's looking more likely that we're gonna get hit soon. 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to get skipped here as storms are forming to my west 

I'm hoping the stuff in developing in southern Middlesex county will get us. It has really blossomed on the last couple radar frames. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

I'm hoping the stuff in developing in southern Middlesex county will get us. It has really blossomed on the last couple radar frames. 

Wanted to cut the grass so I won’t be disappointed if it does miss my location. Plenty of more opportunities the next few days 

[elektricshock]

I’m going to an outdoor concert in Forest Hills from 7-10 tonight… what do we think the odds are of it happening?

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm hoping the stuff in developing in southern Middlesex county will get us. It has really blossomed on the last couple radar frames. 

Yeah just got home and  it's thundering to the south

Those storms over the watchung mountains fired up and went poof in about 10 minutes

[Brasiluvsnow]

It absolutely poured here in New City,,,,,,had some nice sized hail as well along with some loud thunder boomers,,,,,this is fine for today but I need it to stay mostly dry tomorrow because I have people coming to my house ---models look much drier for tomorrow just sayin 

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah just got home and  it's thundering to the south

Those storms over the watchung mountains fired up and went poof in about 10 minutes

Yeah the ones over the watchung mountains fall apart quickly and then new ones pop up. The stuff moving up through Middlesex county is getting close now. Hoping to get a good watering. 

[Euripides]

There is one cell that has been sitting over the same area since these flared up. It is just south of 195 so thinking Jackson and other towns around them which includes Great Adventure

So flooding likely a concern the longer it parks itself.

[BlizzLuv]

Finally started raining in Hillsborough about 10 minutes ago. We need the rain here. Just a moderate shower....no high wind or hail, etc yet.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Euripides said:

There is one cell that has been sitting over the same area since these flared up. It is just south of 195 so thinking Jackson and other towns around them which includes Great Adventure

Yeah they've got to be over 2-3" there

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the ones over the watchung mountains fall apart quickly and then new ones pop up. The stuff moving up through Middlesex county is getting close now. Hoping to get a good watering. 

Looks like just some showers

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like just some showers

Yep. It really weakened. I'm just getting some moderate rain. Better than nothing. What a difference in how it feels out there too ... the temp is down to 75. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. It really weakened. I'm just getting some moderate rain. Better than nothing. What a difference in how it feels out there too ... the temp is down to 75. 

Same. Probably get the mow in later 

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Same. Probably get the mow in later 

It picked up to low end heavy here. A decent downpour but it didn't last long. Looks like I'm at least getting enough to water the vegetable garden. Almost a quarter inch. Hopefully you can get your mow in. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

As per usual everything hits a brick wall right around the city. We haven’t had more the. A few showers on the uws. Let’s see if that changes 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here before the storms moved thru.

Current temp 72/DP 69/RH 93%

[BlizzLuv]

Well...there was one flash of lightning and thunderclap that hit hard, bright and close to our house. Scared the crap out me and sent the cat scurrying out of my office. Haven't seen him in 15 minutes...lol

[gravitylover]

Good stuff! I was out and it got dark, all the lights were kicking on as the wind whipped up. When it started raining it was violently whipped in torrents with the lightning flashing all over. There's about 1.5" there now but 5 miles east, here at home, it's .2-.4 and east of here it drops off more before it ramps back up. 

[IrishRob17]

Rocked last night and again this afternoon with half inch hail, up to 2.56" over the past 24 hours with more storms popping up around here. 

[bluewave]

An 80° first week of September is pretty impressive.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 7	Missing Count
1	1973-09-07	83.1	0
2	1961-09-07	82.4	0
3	1953-09-07	81.4	0
4	2018-09-07	81.1	0
5	2023-09-07	80.2	0

[ForestHillWx]

Solid storms out west, rain, frequent thunder and lightening. Seems like they keep back building by flemington. 

[Rjay]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

An 80° first week of September is pretty impressive.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 7	Missing Count
1	1973-09-07	83.1	0
2	1961-09-07	82.4	0
3	1953-09-07	81.4	0
4	2018-09-07	81.1	0
5	2023-09-07	80.2	0

Fake heat. Fake sensor. Cherry picked site.  Too much blacktop.  It actually didn't feel that bad.  

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fake heat. Fake sensor. Cherry picked site.  Too much blacktop.  It actually didn't feel that bad.  

It's hoodie weather with these sun angles...

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It's hoodie weather with these sun angles...

Mid-late next week will feel cold despite near normal temperatures. 

And yes despite the record heat it still doesn't have the same punch as June through mid August due to those lower angles. 

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fake heat. Fake sensor. Cherry picked site.  Too much blacktop.  It actually didn't feel that bad.  

let's see the weekly average on sunday

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fake heat. Fake sensor. Cherry picked site.  Too much blacktop.  It actually didn't feel that bad.  

The only people that dismiss a site here are those talking about a tree canopy in Central Park. all you have to do is land Newark airport and see why it’s a hot hole. Low flat slab in swampland surrounded by industry.

 

 

 

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mid-late next week will feel cold despite near normal temperatures. 

And yes despite the record heat it still doesn't have the same punch as June through mid August due to those lower angles. 

Will feel cold? Ok, as long as the hoodies stay in the closet because anyone with traditional values knows that hoodies stay in the closet/drawer for at least another month, if not two. 
Up to 3.51" since yesterday, @Rjay can take this severe and rain anytime he is ready. 

[forkyfork]

28 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The only people that dismiss a site here are those talking about a tree canopy in Central Park. all you have to do is land Newark airport and see why it’s a hot hole. Low flat slab in swampland surrounded by industry.

how many nyc residents live in a forest?

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region, including New York City, reached 90° today. However, cooler weather will be moving into the region. That cooling trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week. In addition, showers and thundershowers will be possible tomorrow and Sunday.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm. The ensembles favor recurvature, but the outcome is not yet cast in stone. An area running from eastern New England to Atlantic Canada could face the highest risk of landfall should Lee fail to recurve away from the North American continent. The picture should begin to clear during the weekend into early next week.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -3.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.934 today.

On September 6 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.602 (RMM). The September 5-djusted amplitude was 2.200 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.6° (2.4° above normal).

 

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Will feel cold? Ok, as long as the hoodies stay in the closet because anyone with traditional values knows that hoodies stay in the closet/drawer for at least another month, if not two. 
Up to 3.51" since yesterday, @Rjay can take this severe and rain anytime he is ready. 

0.0 baby!