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Hurricane Idalia


hlcater
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1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. 

IMG_3179.jpeg

Definitely happening right now as we speak and will likely continue between now and say landfall.

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1 minute ago, Castaway said:

Start’n to whistle. 
 

I wonder how much turnover in the bath water it’ll do. If by chance, another hurricane were to track through in the similar area here. And how long it would prohibit RI on the next would be storm within the next weeks. 
 

From what I remember not long. Just a random quick thought. 
 

From this morning to now, it has been an impressive display to watch.

Up in the big bend, shelf and water depths are relatively shallow compared to the rest of the gulf. If this was moving slow, it’d churn up a good bit of the OHP. In this case, not as much with the storms forward speed. 

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5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

This 18z Euro track is meterological chicken if I've ever seen it -- I mean it basically trucks due north until the very last second, then it gets pulled NE, then it kind of turns back NNE. That's going to make for some tense radar-watching in the morning. 

GifofEuro.gif

~15 mile SE change in track vs 12Z Euro. Landfall still in Taylor county but central rather than NW. Entire track inland is similarly shifted slightly SE.

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The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO.  It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet.  And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide.  The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours.

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3 minutes ago, Mello said:

The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO.  It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet.  And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide.  The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours.

What else would it be then? 

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4 minutes ago, Mello said:

The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO.  It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet.  And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide.  The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours.

You felt the need to announce that talking about a pinhole eye is premature but will likely be correct in an hour? 

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

What else would it be then? 

A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane.  Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye.

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18z UKMET has like the 18Z Euro shifted its landfall 15 miles SE along with the remaining SE US track. The 12Z UK landfall was in C Taylor Cty and the 18Z is in S Taylor Cty. Also, 18Z landfalls 2.5 hours sooner (7:30AM) vs 10AM on 12Z.

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7 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 

 

I'm measuring radius of about 6 miles at an altitude of about 16k feet per TBW radar

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5 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 

About 12 mi wide.

IMG_0387.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Mello said:

A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane.  Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye.

I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either. 

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58 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I see 1896 and 1950 but not 1985 for Cedar Key landfall:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png

My source was the wikipedia entry for Cedar Key and they state that 1985 Elena stayed offshore but still generated a damaging storm surge that had a major impact on the town (so no landfall). Also 2020 Eta came in around Cedar Key but damage was slight. 

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