Hurricane Idalia

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now.

Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity. 

Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Still cat 2 at 11pm  .   958

[WxSynopsisDavid]

They now have landfall intensity at Category 4

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all.

Yes, I am not saying it will halt (unless it truly is ERC), but these little structural nuances are probably why it has yet to really rip a hole in the atmosphere as of yet.

Still time.

[wncsnow]

I'm still amazed there is a sub 960 mb cane in the Gulf and it's not a major

 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Still cat 2 at 11pm  .   958

11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29
Location: 27.7°N 84.5°W
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

They now have landfall intensity at Category 4

Wouldn't take much of a leap to get there. 

[Windspeed]

It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification prior to landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch.

[HKY_WX]

Water vapor is often good in these scenarios when you're watching eyewall dynamics. I think we're about 2 or 3 hours from it truly clearing out.

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all.

Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls.   This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification theough landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch.

Really interesting but NHC states intensification will continue on landfall bringing intensity to Cat 4 as it landfalls. Seems to be specifically calling for a frictional-induced RI at landfall.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, Amped said:

Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls.   This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything.

Seems to be a climo with these gulf canes approaching Florida. Ian at one point had this feature if I recall correctly.

[LakeEffectKing]

11 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall...

RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away.

 

11 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. 

Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI.

[MattPetrulli]

26 minutes ago, hlcater said:

It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now.

Moat just filled in and inner eyewall is intensifying, so you're probably right.

[schoeppeya]

Pretty incredible radar presentation right now 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 

Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI.

I’ll take that bet and say another 20mb drop. If I’m wrong a round of shots on me? But this has to be one of the more impressive inner structures and eyewalls we have seen recently. 

[BYG Jacob]

First time I've seen Idalia with intense convection around the entire eyewall

[Windspeed]

Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI.

That doesn't seem unreasonable with this presentation...

Things can change quickly for a TC when the mid-to-upper atmospheric environment cooperates. Idalia was still tilted and struggling a little over 24 hours ago.

[Prospero]

The tide is creeping up on Captiva Island. As the night goes on and Idalia moves away the wind gets stronger on Sanibel and Captiva.

https://www.muckyduck.com/beach-cam/?utm_source=SanCapChamber&utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

That doesn't seem unreasonable with this presentation...

Things can change quickly for a TC when the mid-to-upper atmospheric environment cooperates. Idalia was still tilted and struggling a little over 24 hours ago.

Can’t recall a cane that was tilted like that, a TS, undergo the struggles it endured earlier today to bomb out like this and be knocking on Cat 4 intensity. I’m sure some of you can remember an analog, and I’ll be interested to know and study it if provided.

[RU848789]

As feared and somewhat expected, the NHC is now forecasting that Idalia will be a 130 mph Cat 4 storm at landfall in the Big Bend area, about 20 miles ESE of St. Mark's and 35 miles NW of Steinhatchee (i.e., the middle of freakin' nowhere, with no towns within 10 miles of landfall including inland of there - which is not a bad thing) tomorrow morning around 8 am EDT. Other than the intensity, the only other change was a minor shift of the track about 10 miles further NW than earlier today at 5 pm. Good luck tomorrow to anyone in the path of this storm.  Surprised nobody posted the discussion.  Here it is...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/292056.shtml?

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming 
increasingly more organized.  The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is 
becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery 
consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong 
convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.  
Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure 
is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb.  Flight-level and 
SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the 
aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.

Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of 
north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving 
between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and 
ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles.  The system is expected 
to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall 
along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to 
eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the 
northeast U.S. coast.  The 12-hour track forecast point for this 
advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model 
consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.  It 
should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and 
HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west.

After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast 
of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours.  Uncertainty in the 
track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of 
the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the 
regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea.  Given 
the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow 
southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days.

Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable 
thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening 
seems likely up to landfall.  The new official intensity forecast 
calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall.  This is 
fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model 
simulations.  After the center moves back over the Atlantic, 
significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to 
the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind 
shear.

Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of 
Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet 
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere 
between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida. 
Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along 
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in 
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by 
local officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 27.7N  84.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 30.0N  83.9W  115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST
 24H  31/0000Z 32.3N  81.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/1200Z 33.5N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  01/0000Z 33.8N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 33.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 32.9N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 32.0N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 31.0N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

[Chinook]

tropical tidbits says the recon is still in progress. It seems like it has been going on since 8PM or something

[Prospero]

If you know Clearwater Beach, you'll realize how high the tide is now and the surge is just beginning. I think noon tomorrow is the Blue Moon peak tide. It might be a doozy all long the Gulf Coast.

https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/

 

[MN Transplant]

Curious about how Valdosta will fare.  65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. 

[MattPetrulli]

Presentation has become extremely impressive really quick. Reminds me of Ida's presentation. I am thinking 120-125 knots at landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like the goalposts are narrowing with the GFS ticking east again.

[NYweatherguy]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Curious about how Valdosta will fare.  65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. 

It's moving at 18mph now and should speed up at that point. It's probably 3 hours from landfall at that point. 

[Blizzard22]

2 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said:

It's moving at 18mph now and should speed up at that point. It's probably 3 hours from landfall at that point. 

So lets say it makes landfall at 130 mph and is in Valdosta 3 hours later. Could that mean Valdosta could potentially see 100 mph sustained winds ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Curious about how Valdosta will fare.  65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. 

TWC has a crew there.