Hurricane Idalia

[cptcatz]

So the strongest winds are in the NE eyewall.  Flight level recorded 71 kts, dropsonde recorded 68 kt at surface, although it had some mid-80's in between.  Still not overly impressive.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The third recon pass this morning is also 978 mb, so Idalia remains in a holding pattern.  Landfall is only 24 hours away, so it will really need to step on the gas later today.

A lot of the intensity models haven't strayed from strong 2 borderline 3.

[ROOSTA]

Regardless of intensity at LF. Surge will still be the biggest takeaway. 
I'm concerned with the quick spin-ups which will be prolific and during the night for my area.
SURGE, WINDS, TORNADO'S
-----
GRLEVEL product- Use the Marker, place it in the center of the eye, then overlay with the range ring.
Last dozen or so scans A SLIGHT W of due N track. 

[NERMAN]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the intensity models haven't strayed from strong 2 borderline 3.

HWRF, HMON and HAFS all still showing a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 as of 6z. They've been rock-steady. 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is definitely a reasonable take structure doesn't seem fully stacked yet. Forward speed may be hindering it a bit since it can't get it structure setup? 3 seems to be the upper limit at this point unless we get heck of a surprise. Definitely trying its best to get organized quick though.

 Hurricane Ida had a similar pressure 24 hrs from landfall and it easily made Cat4. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, NERMAN said:

HWRF, HMON and HAFS all still showing a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 as of 6z. They've been rock-steady. 

HWRF and HMON aren't my go tos really. HAFS I don't have a lot of experience with. 

[WxWatcher007]

HWRF is being retired by HAFS, but I think they’re all excellent. There’s just a lot of uncertainty on where this tops out. 

[PackGrad05]

6Z GEFS and EPS are almost identical and tightly packed.  

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

 Hurricane Ida had a similar pressure 24 hrs from landfall and it easily made Cat4. 

I agree including michael they all had similar upbringings. The difference may come down to structure those were near or at hurricane status by the time it was crossing cuba this was still a developing tropical storm. That little bit of difference could easily mean a slightly lower upper value given very similar backgrounds.

[NavarreDon]

No expert here but looking at the water vapor, it looks like dry air might still be feeding into the SW side of Idalia?


.

[Radtechwxman]

Satellite presentation improving. Idalia may just be making some internal changes before taking off. Starting to get deeper convection wrapping on western side now which has been severely lacking. Definitely seeing signs of eye trying to pop as well. 

[WxWatcher007]

Closed eye now per recon

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

[Eskimo Joe]

Winds appear to be catching up to pressure falls.

 

 

[Nibor]

The hurricane models hwrf hmon hafs a/b all really show deepening this afternoon. I think the forecast is on track. 

[WxWatcher007]

You can see it in the dropsondes. Especially the latest NE eyewall one. 

[NERMAN]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The hurricane models hwrf hmon hafs a/b all really show deepening this afternoon. I think the forecast is on track. 

Yep, all showing Big Bend landfall. Euro caved to the west. I'd like to know which intensity models aren't showing this strength to compare. 

[eaglesin2011]

 

can defiantly see the overall size starting to increase.. means more precip in a wider area .. especially down the road

[hawkeye_wx]

The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass (50 minutes).  The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase.  It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure.

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass.  The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase.  It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure.

Looks like we may be getting an attempt to clear out the eye as well

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass.  The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase.  It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure.

Rotating upshear too. If it can solidify the eyewall the intensification pace should pick up substantially.

[CoastalWx]

110kts NHC. I can buy that.

[beanskip]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?cone#contents

 

I'm rather flabbergasted by this map.

The cone doesn't even include St. George Island?

And barely touches TLH?

Wow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

110kts NHC. I can buy that.

I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means  maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means  maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity.

I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall.

Yea, writing up now and I can't rule out 5. You guys know me and am not about hype, but this will be bad.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means  maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall.

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. 

Stand by....just gimme a few

[Tezeta]

We should have a separate thread for amateur forecasts and those who want to make every post about theirs

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. 

Steinhatchee seems a good place to post up for now. I agree it could be a bit NW of that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We should have a separate thread for amateur forecasts and those who want to make every post about theirs

I made one post...and then one more because someone asked.