Hurricane Idalia

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

I’m aware of the Tampa bubble which has evaded hurricane landfalls in the region for many decades.   I was not aware until tonight that the last major hurricane to hit the Big Bend was back in 1896!   If Idalia slams into the region as a Cat 3 or 4 it will be the first time most of the current structures in that area get tested by a proper storm 

 You may be forgetting Easy of 1950, which hit Cedar Key as a cat 3.

[purduewx80]

17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar.

[beanskip]

Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.

[USCG RS]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not in the EM workspace, but having a patchwork county evacuation scenario like that is confusing.

I am. You're right. 

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

Regarding the EM Workspace, there is a rationale behind it, although it might be a bit premature.

--) To begin with, there are specific operations that need to be gradually discontinued. These winding-down operations do take time, but they also allow for the minimal required personnel to be present.

--) Airlines can ensure that none of their aircraft get stranded there if developments unfold rapidly.

--) This approach reduces the risk of individuals being trapped and guarantees that if the situation takes a negative turn, there won't be a last-minute rush at the airport, which could lead to people being caught there as the storm approaches.

--) It enables the airport to swiftly open up for emergency operations and planning.

--) Let's not overlook the matter of liability...

[beanskip]

8 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.

For Tallahassee/St. Marks/Apalachicola Bay, this is is a huge shift, more in line with the hurricane models and GFS. Another move or two like this and that area moves from the left to right side (or straight shot) of the storm. Night and day difference. The west trend has been clear all day -- I guess if it isn't going to hit Tampa Bay it must be fake news ... whatever. 

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a pair of rotating hot towers on the last couple of IR frames. One of them rotating through the shear vector. Might be time to head to the happening bunker.

[Nibor]

Radar from Mexico also shows what looks like wrapping around the center.

[dan11295]

In general there was an overall westward shift in the models at 18z. Obviously better for Tampa. As mentioned above, won't take much more of shift to be a major problem for Apalacheee Bay and Tallahassee. Even though TLH is inland, Idalia will be moving quick and that area hasn't seen the core of a strong hurricane in a very long time.

[Hotair]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 You may be forgetting Easy of 1950, which hit Cedar Key as a cat 3.

You are absolutely correct.  I stand corrected.  

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That's a very tight circulation!!!  Once that wraps around the center and gets say 40 miles north of the Western Tip of Cuba this is going to take off!!  I have not yet looked at water vapor map the only limiting factor could be dry air on the west and northwest side if it is there. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

In general there was an overall westward shift in the models at 18z. Obviously better for Tampa. As mentioned above, won't take much more of shift to be a major problem for Apalacheee Bay and Tallahassee. Even though TLH is inland, Idalia will be moving quick and that area hasn't seen the core of a strong hurricane in a very long time.

Yeah, Hermine was barely a Cat 1 and shut down Tallahassee for a week. Something like this would be beyond catastrophic given the pervasive tree canopy. 

[BYG Jacob]

Pressure dropping like a rock

[Nibor]

[NavarreDon]

Pressure dropping like a rock

Recon data certainly suggests we have a cane imo.


.

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

Pressure dropping like a rock

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

[NeffsvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Pressure dropping like a rock

 

And -10 mb from model guidance assuming 979 is accurate.

Edit: not sure if I believe it. NOAA marked the eye an hour ago at 988. Wilma has the record for pressure frop @ -4.2 mb per hour. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say either this is unprecedented or the data is invalid. Because it's not even in the eye so one would expect the pressure to be even lower.

[BYG Jacob]

15 minutes ago, Hotair said:

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

Hard to say, that measurement isn't from the eye or CoC. It could very likely be lower, I don't think we'll get a definitive answer until the storm pulls away from Cuba

[Hotair]

There’s lots of chatter now that latest models have shifted LF guidance about 30 miles West.  But didn’t these runs initialize with a 20 to 30 mile westerly offset ? 

[Looking to the skies]

Eye trying

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Hotair said:

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

IR was expected tonight. 

[CoastalWx]

Still lopsided on satellite. I’d like to see the shear relax some more.

[TradeWinds]

6 minutes ago, Hotair said:

There’s lots of chatter now that latest models have shifted LF guidance about 30 miles West.  But didn’t these runs initialize with a 20 to 30 mile westerly offset ? 

Looks like tighter clusters mostly but many of the more western tracks show the cane moving NNW starting now or even should have by now. Time will tell. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still lopsided on satellite. I’d like to see the shear relax some more.

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

[Windspeed]

Wow, the recent convective burst over the past hour is just nuts! It's one of the more explosive ones I can recall. Uncertain if perhaps a little terrain / frictional influenced. No surprise at the resulting pressure drop regardless.

[Hotair]

Operator on ham radio saying heavy rain, lightning and 50 mph gusts also some flooding in Pinar Del Rio Cuba. Power is off.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

It’s trying. 

[Eskimo Joe]

From a WPC met

 

 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, Hotair said:

You are absolutely correct.  I stand corrected.  

But your point is still a good one. No major in that region in 73 years means increased vulnerability if a major were to hit there.

[Amped]

The center may have wobbled or reformed a little to the southeast judging by both radar and recon obs.  

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s trying. 

Indeed, finally seeing a consistent burst of deep convection and it appears that deep convection is wrapping the core now. Marketable improvements upshear, I suspect what is happening now is that column is trying to get vertical which should happen very soon, once it clears Cuba.

IMO...the environment ahead is the best environment an Atlantic tropical system has had since Michael. All systems are go, once it clears Cuba, for RI. Some indication I seen in previous runs of the COAMPS that suggests a potential period of explosive intensification once it gets over the loop current tomorrow afternoon.