WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 First VDM from mission 5. No eye observed at this time. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 11:59ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 5Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:18:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.61N 85.17WB. Center Fix Location: 115 statute miles (185 km) to the ESE (109°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,351m (4,432ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.24 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 12kts (From the SE at 14mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 11:11:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 37kts (From the NNE at 42.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix at 11:13:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 11:27:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 191° at 56kts (From between the S and SSW at 64.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 11:39:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:39:00ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (289°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Mission 6 extrapolated down to 983.9mb but again, the caveat is that this was extrapolated at ~12,000ft. Nothing earth shattering about FL winds or SFMR so this is probably too low. Dropsonde would confirm. Stepping away for a bit unless there's something really interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Satellite is suggestive of Idalia forming an eye . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Still has that elongated area of convection from SSW-NNE. It has some work to do still as far as organization. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 NOAA3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, Hotair said: Satellite is suggestive of Idalia forming an eye . Negative. The cloud tops are casting a shadow that is given the appearance of an eye. No eye is developing yet, according to recon. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Not quite sure where the shear is decreasing narrative has come from. Currently the storm is dealing with moderate shear which is tilting the core despite the strong convection. We've observed several wrap up attempts that have failed so far, which is likely due to this ~15-20kts of shear, and some dry air still showing up around 800 hPa on dropsonde data. There has been no observed decrease in vertical wind shear over the past 24 hours ahead of the system or over the system. Idalia will remain under similar conditions as it lifts into the gulf. We may see a period of little to no shear as the flow switches direction while the tough approaches (likely when we will see the strongest chance for RI). From there the trough will begin to increase vertical shear again, this time southerly. However, favorable synoptic interaction with the equatorward entrance region of the jet streak that will be traversing the eastern US at this time will likely offset the negative effects of this southerly shear as Idalia approaches landfall thanks to diffluence. Just speculating here, but I wonder if this southerly shear and dry air behind the system at landfall would eat away at the back eyewall upon approach, as we have seen with so many other gulf "halficane" landfalls in recent years EDIT: Fixed poleward to equatorward 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Not quite sure where the shear is decreasing narrative has come from. Currently the storm is dealing with moderate shear which is tilting the core despite the strong convection. We've observed several wrap up attempts that have failed so far, which is likely due to this ~15-20kts of shear, and some dry air still showing up around 800 hPa on dropsonde data. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF There has been no observed decrease in vertical wind shear over the past 24 hours ahead of the system or over the system. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF Idalia will remain under similar conditions as it lifts into the gulf. We may see a brief period of little to no shear as the flow switches direction while the tough approaches (likely when we will see the strongest chance for RI). From there the trough will begin to increase vertical shear again, this time southerly. However, favorable synoptic interaction with the poleward entrance region of the jet streak that will be traversing the eastern US at this time will likely offset the negative effects of this southerly shear as Idalia approaches landfall thanks to diffluence. Just speculating here, but I wonder if this southerly shear and dry air behind the system at landfall would eat away at the back eyewall upon approach, as we have seen with so many other gulf "halficane" landfalls in recent years This is excellent. To wit, it does not appear the pressure is dropping per latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 TV reminding folks how far Ian track was from actual LF 72 hours out. I do believe the steering patterns are a little better behaved this time given the multi model consensus, but no one inside the cone should let their guard down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hotair said: TV reminding folks how far Ian track was from actual LF 72 hours out. I do believe the steering patterns are a little better behaved this time given the multi model consensus, but no one inside the cone should let their guard down Yeah Charlie ended up farther down the coast too like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Yeah Charlie ended up farther down the coast too like that. Is there history on the direction of this miss. These two examples are both to the right -- is that a known bias or just a coincidence for these two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: Is there history on the direction of this miss. These two examples are both to the right -- is that a known bias or just a coincidence for these two? I feel like most storms have moved east, but that's just a feel, nothing quantitative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hotair said: Euro ensembles from @HurricanesJames show tight overlap. Would love to see the op run plotted on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall" Now sonde #9 is labeled as in the eye. VDM will be telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Is the storm becoming less vertically tilted Or *when is it forecast to be * because until that gets sorted, strengthening is almost always slow/steady in my experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 There is still a decent amount of spread in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) with regards to impacts on the SE coast. The exact track will determine impacts not only at the coast, but inland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just putting this model image out there, from August 20, eight days ago, for this exact time stamp. Compare to current satellite...this is why Euro always reigns supreme. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Models mostly predicted this system would have issues until it got into the gulf Monday night and Tuesday. It has done well to get down to 990 mb, but, as others have noted, it has yet to be able to wrap the convection around the surface center. It continues to try, but so far it's just a series of strong cells trying hard to hold onto the center while being pushed back south/southeast by some dry, shearing flow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Just putting this model image out there, from August 20, eight days ago, for this exact time stamp. Compare to current satellite...this is why Euro always reigns supreme. Just 50mb off for Franklin. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just 50mb off for Franklin. lol well Euro always has trouble with intensity. But this is when GFS was seeing nada in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, cptcatz said: lol well Euro always has trouble with intensity. But this is when GFS was seeing nada in the Caribbean. Yeah GFS missed Idalia. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Well, I know we're not supposed to talk about the NAM for tropics -- or much of anything else -- but it is showing a pretty striking trend to the west and slower on its 12z run. Given that King Euro crept west at Oz and the hurricane models did at 6z, I think something might be going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 As 12z suite comes in, thinking about the ~50 n mi average track error at 48h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah GFS missed Idalia. Which is surprising considering the GFS loves to spin up anything coming from a CAG. Completely missed the signal. 13 minutes ago, TPAwx said: As 12z suite comes in, thinking about the ~50 n mi average track error at 48h Probably a nail biter to the end. Good thing is that the steady northward movement now should help smooth out any stall related hiccups we may have seen on track guidance. 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. Agree. I don’t think we see a major shift at this point, but as the NHC says, the parallel movement up the west coast of Florida means any deviation has a major impact. Would not be surprised if this entered the Atlantic as a minimal hurricane if it comes into Florida south enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north. With her reluctance to move north in wonder if we get into a scenario where the trough leaves her behind a little as the models are hinting at just offshore. For practical impacts along the east coast inwonder if a slight miss by the trough equals less east turn and we see a closer to the coast track say Charleston to lookout or so? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Still 65mph at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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