WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 That was fast 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. I know, just a little funny to see. They telegraphed it at 11am by saying it could happen at anytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. I've recently relocated to the cape fear region and am curious as to what intensity it can bring up this way. It's steady forward motion and coast riding gives me hope for at least a few TS force gusts Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 HAFS A and B both suggested a slow evolution of the vortex with persistent runs with convection lopsided just to the east. Some runs even losing and redeveloping the LLC, though the most recent runs have not lost it. The main point is that neither have shown significant intensification until the TC is lifting NNE through the SE GOM into Tuesday. We'll just have to see if this plays out IRL. Also, data should be injected from reconnaissance flights today into the parent universal GFS to get an even better handle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It’s no surprise that the vortex is tilted, and that’ll limit the risk of rapid intensification in the near term. That said I’d watch the development of shallow convection near the center. Sometimes that can be a precursor for greater convective activity that can organize the center. I’m guessing we see it in spurts however given the apparent northerly shear that’s currently tilting Idalia. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Sorry for the banter but are we going to see any effects in central NC? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach. IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z GFS is almost identical to ECMWF and EPS. Rides GA/SC coast and then turns east at Cape Fear out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 38 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020. I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, shaggy said: I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago. Beautiful place! We stayed in North Topsail two weekends ago and took a drive down to Wrightsville Beach for the day. North Topsail had a lot of construction and renovations going on. Read something they got hit by like an EF2 tornado or something during one of the tropical events couple years back. Stay safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z UKMET: about same as 0Z with landfall NW part of FL Big Bend moving NNE followed by turn to NE/ENE going through south central and then SE GA. Then it goes offshore near CHS, SC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 86.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2023 0 19.8N 86.1W 1003 24 0000UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.4N 85.3W 1001 29 1200UTC 28.08.2023 24 21.4N 85.5W 1001 33 0000UTC 29.08.2023 36 22.6N 85.8W 1001 36 1200UTC 29.08.2023 48 24.2N 86.1W 1000 34 0000UTC 30.08.2023 60 25.8N 85.5W 999 38 1200UTC 30.08.2023 72 28.6N 84.6W 995 49 0000UTC 31.08.2023 84 31.2N 82.7W 993 39 1200UTC 31.08.2023 96 33.2N 78.8W 993 43 0000UTC 01.09.2023 108 33.4N 75.0W 995 48 1200UTC 01.09.2023 120 33.8N 72.0W 999 46 0000UTC 02.09.2023 132 33.2N 69.2W 1001 43 1200UTC 02.09.2023 144 32.8N 68.4W 1003 37 0000UTC 03.09.2023 156 33.6N 65.9W 1003 35 1200UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.6N 64.5W 999 47 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The center drop is suggestive of a very healthy circulation despite being exposed right now. I would expect a big convective burst soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The 12Z GFS is another trend toward the Euro solution. The timing of the trough that picks up Idalia will be crucial to whether this is a Forgotten Coast or Nature Coast strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start.. If it is or isn't, it initializes about 6 mb too high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I’d probably wait until the 00z suite because the models will have data on not just right now but how Idalia evolved over the course of the day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 FWIW, Euro is stronger and maybe a touch east? Definitely stronger as the low heads toward the FL/GA coast. 989mb at Savannah at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb. It is significantly stronger and a bit further SE than recent runs. It then goes offshore 50 miles S of Savannah (mid-GA coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Almost to Bermuda by Friday morning. Is this quicker exit than before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb. It is significantly stronger and a bit further SE than recent runs. It then goes offshore 50 miles S of Savannah (mid-GA coast). Thanks for cleaning up my sloppy geography 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Almost to Bermuda by Friday morning. Is this quicker exit than before? It looks a lot faster by my eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 High altitude sampling flight underway. We'll see if it has any meaningful impact on the track and intensity guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What about Hermine in 2016? We lost an oak tree during an outer band here in Gulfport, Florida in Tampa Bay. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine I think there have been others as well. EDIT: "Since 1968, no hurricane has made landfall between Tampa and Florida's big bend. " I guess the key word here is "between". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Just now, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: If IMBY posts aren’t allowed I’ll delete, however curious if anyone knows how soon we’ll see watches and warnings? Im new to Tampa and run a business in level 1 evacuation zone that would require a bit of prep to close. Seems like we won’t have much time to prepare. Sand bags are available now in Pinellas County: https://thegabber.com/td-10-update-3-pinellas-sandbag-locations/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Prospero said: What about Hermine in 2016? We lost an oak tree during an outer band here in Gulfport, Florida in Tampa Bay. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine I think there have been others as well. Indeed, Hermine was a solid H with 981 mb near landfall in the Big Bend. Beware of inaccurate Tweets. He even shows Hermine landfalling into the upper part of the Big Bend! If he means "between exclusive" instead of "between inclusive", then that's different. But "between exclusive" would be just a rather short portion of the coast centered on Spring Hill at a difficult angle to have a landfall. In that case, I don't think there's even been a TS crossing since 1968 (excluding 1968, itself, which had Gladys). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Indeed, Hermine was a solid H with 981 mb near landfall in the Big Bend. Beware of inaccurate Tweets. He even shows Hermine landfalling into the upper part of the Big Bend! If he means between exclusive instead of between inclusive, then that's different. But between exclusive is just a short portion of the coast at a difficult angle to have a landfall. I was here in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes and we had a ten foot storm surge even with Agnes some miles out into the Gulf. Tropical Storm Debbie flooded some businesses in downtown Gulfport, Florida. Here's a night clip of the Gulfport Casino showing where Beach Blvd meets Gulf Blvd during Debbie: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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