Kevin Reilly Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned! Looking at the water vapor map looks like the main vortex is a naked swirl for now a bit of NNE shear... also I am assuming the upper level low over Louisiana will be the feature that drags Depression #10 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Some evidence of minimal TS intensity on the latest set of obs from recon but it’s still early in the flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Should have Idalia very shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 995.4mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Holding at TD 10 at 11am Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and convective banding features are still not very well defined. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These data should provide valuable information on the structure of the cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models. The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days. In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S. will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center. The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast, have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today. 2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of Youth. 3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 11 am stays at TD. I don’t like criticizing the pros much but I do not understand at all why this hasn’t been upgraded. Pressure and SFMR are in full support.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Dropsonde shows center pressure ~995mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 That's a pretty good surface pressure for a young, disjointed system with a naked center. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 000 WTNT65 KNHC 271513 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 That was fast 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. I know, just a little funny to see. They telegraphed it at 11am by saying it could happen at anytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. I've recently relocated to the cape fear region and am curious as to what intensity it can bring up this way. It's steady forward motion and coast riding gives me hope for at least a few TS force gusts Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 HAFS A and B both suggested a slow evolution of the vortex with persistent runs with convection lopsided just to the east. Some runs even losing and redeveloping the LLC, though the most recent runs have not lost it. The main point is that neither have shown significant intensification until the TC is lifting NNE through the SE GOM into Tuesday. We'll just have to see if this plays out IRL. Also, data should be injected from reconnaissance flights today into the parent universal GFS to get an even better handle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It’s no surprise that the vortex is tilted, and that’ll limit the risk of rapid intensification in the near term. That said I’d watch the development of shallow convection near the center. Sometimes that can be a precursor for greater convective activity that can organize the center. I’m guessing we see it in spurts however given the apparent northerly shear that’s currently tilting Idalia. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Sorry for the banter but are we going to see any effects in central NC? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach. IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z GFS is almost identical to ECMWF and EPS. Rides GA/SC coast and then turns east at Cape Fear out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 38 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this. Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I am hoping for some outer bands like I saw in Isiais in 2020. I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, shaggy said: I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago. Beautiful place! We stayed in North Topsail two weekends ago and took a drive down to Wrightsville Beach for the day. North Topsail had a lot of construction and renovations going on. Read something they got hit by like an EF2 tornado or something during one of the tropical events couple years back. Stay safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12Z UKMET: about same as 0Z with landfall NW part of FL Big Bend moving NNE followed by turn to NE/ENE going through south central and then SE GA. Then it goes offshore near CHS, SC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 86.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2023 0 19.8N 86.1W 1003 24 0000UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.4N 85.3W 1001 29 1200UTC 28.08.2023 24 21.4N 85.5W 1001 33 0000UTC 29.08.2023 36 22.6N 85.8W 1001 36 1200UTC 29.08.2023 48 24.2N 86.1W 1000 34 0000UTC 30.08.2023 60 25.8N 85.5W 999 38 1200UTC 30.08.2023 72 28.6N 84.6W 995 49 0000UTC 31.08.2023 84 31.2N 82.7W 993 39 1200UTC 31.08.2023 96 33.2N 78.8W 993 43 0000UTC 01.09.2023 108 33.4N 75.0W 995 48 1200UTC 01.09.2023 120 33.8N 72.0W 999 46 0000UTC 02.09.2023 132 33.2N 69.2W 1001 43 1200UTC 02.09.2023 144 32.8N 68.4W 1003 37 0000UTC 03.09.2023 156 33.6N 65.9W 1003 35 1200UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.6N 64.5W 999 47 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The center drop is suggestive of a very healthy circulation despite being exposed right now. I would expect a big convective burst soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The 12Z GFS is another trend toward the Euro solution. The timing of the trough that picks up Idalia will be crucial to whether this is a Forgotten Coast or Nature Coast strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start.. If it is or isn't, it initializes about 6 mb too high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I’d probably wait until the 00z suite because the models will have data on not just right now but how Idalia evolved over the course of the day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 FWIW, Euro is stronger and maybe a touch east? Definitely stronger as the low heads toward the FL/GA coast. 989mb at Savannah at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb. It is significantly stronger and a bit further SE than recent runs. It then goes offshore 50 miles S of Savannah (mid-GA coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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