August 2023

[SACRUS]

73 / 69 about 0.75 in the bucket the last 30 hours or so.  pmostly cloudy now but some breaks in the clouds later today after some scattered / isolated showers move through.  Clearing out and drying out Wed (8/9) / Thu (8/10). Warm mid upper 80s.  850s are about 12C-14C so perhaps a stray 90 with enough sun but likely upper 80s does it.  By Thu evening the next round of storms is moving through as trough moves east and butts up against the W Atlantic Ridge.   Storms Fri (8/11) morning then clearing with a warmer weekend and looking mainly dry although scattered storms wouldnt surprise me coming back into the forecast,

 

The western atlantic ridge hit a delay west of Bermuda and the latest forecasts dont have the westward push prior runs had.  Mon (8/14) - Tue (8/15) trough moves through and lifts out. Strong heat skirts by the area to the south in pulses 24 hours out and repeat afew days later.

 

  Beyond that 8/17 and onwards later in the month - overall warm to hot (at times 90s a day or two), humid and storms chances.  The way beyond has the EC ridging but we'll need to track the seasonal tendency to adjust that west and the W. Atlantic Ridge nearby.

 

  

[SACRUS]

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2001) - heat dome was estabished
NYC: 99 (2001)
LGA: 98  (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1989)
NYC: 54 (1903)
LGA: 59 (1989)

Historical:

 

1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month.

1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 

 

[SACRUS]

 16 years ago tornado in Staten Island and Bay Ridge Brooklyn

 

 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

just another day at the office....

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
903 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Preliminary Storm Surveys Scheduled for multiple locations...

The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ will
conduct storm surveys today for the following locations:

Chadds Ford and Glen Mills in Delaware County Pennsylvania
Hockessin and Newark in New Castle County Delaware
Afton Village and Midway Manor areas in Lehigh County Pennsylvania
Milford in Hunterdon County New Jersey

The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved 
through the area on August 8 2023.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by This Evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/phi
 

[MANDA]

Just a run of the mill T-Storm last evening.  Nothing even close to severe.  Picked up .51" of rainfall for a daily total of 1.20".  I'll take it.  Had some rumbles of thunder and some flashes of lighting.  Winds BRIEFLY gusted to about 30 mph.  Pretty much as expected for my area. Bow echo over SNJ was impressive.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Nibor said:

Really wish the nws put more prioritization on knyc. Such an important spot in the world and a fair amount of data output gets scrutinized. 

The excessive tree growth over the temperature sensor has resulted in the longest streak not going over 98° in Central Park history at 4000+ days. 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature <= 98 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2023-08-07
1	4037	2012-07-19 through 2023-08-07
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

 

Data for July 19, 2012 through August 8, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	103
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	103
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	103
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	102
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	101
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	101
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	101
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	101
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	100
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	100
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	99
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	99
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	99
CT	PUTNAM LAKE	COOP	99
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	99
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	99
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	98
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	98
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	98
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	98
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	98
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	98
NY	MATTITUCK	COOP	98

[winterwx21]

A couple beautiful days coming up this week (Wednesday and Friday) where dewpoints drop to the high 50s, as we continue this pattern of numerous low humidity days that we've had since the end of July. In between we get a higher humidity day on Thursday with some rain. 

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A couple beautiful days coming up this week (Wednesday and Friday) where dewpoints drop to the high 50s, as we continue this pattern of numerous low humidity days that we've had since the end of July. In between we get a higher humidity day on Thursday with some rain. 

It's not bad today either

[MANDA]

41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A couple beautiful days coming up this week (Wednesday and Friday) where dewpoints drop to the high 50s, as we continue this pattern of numerous low humidity days that we've had since the end of July. In between we get a higher humidity day on Thursday with some rain. 

No complaints from me.  Pleasant temperatures and humidity and ample rainfall.  Can't beat it with a stick.  I do feel bad for folks in the deep south and southwest U.S.  They have been taking it on the chin this summer.  Brutal.  Now way I could "exist" in those conditions.

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Def getting weaker 

Kudos to those who stuck to their forecast of little support nearer the coast.  The "thing" just died.

[Stormlover74]

75/65 with a refreshing breeze. Starting to see breaks in the clouds

And just like that it's completely sunny

[Volcanic Winter]

57 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Kudos to those who stuck to their forecast of little support nearer the coast.  The "thing" just died.

Yeah, I had little more than a cool looking shelf cloud pass overheard with a couple distant rumbles and some rain. Maybe one moderate wind gust. Wasn’t really even a strong thunderstorm at that point, let alone severe. 

I’m about 15 miles inland from the shore. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I had little more than a cool looking shelf cloud pass overheard with a couple distant rumbles and some rain. Maybe one moderate wind gust. Wasn’t really even a strong thunderstorm at that point, let alone severe. 

I’m about 15 miles inland from the shore. 

It’s really all about investment and innovation in models like the HRRR and HRDPS that make a big difference with convection forecasting. Models in the past couldn’t produce this level of accuracy. 

 

 

[Brian5671]

Non event here outside of yesterday AM's inch of rain...

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s really all about investment and innovation in models like the HRRR and HRDPS that make a big difference with convection forecasting. Models in the past couldn’t produce this level of accuracy. 

 

 

I'm curious as to why they decided to go with a watch for areas in slight or marginal risk. It seemed as though they expected those storms to survive the trek east but the models mostly showed them dying out. Obviously western and South jersey it was a different story

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm curious as to why they decided to go with a watch for areas in slight or marginal risk. It seemed as though they expected those storms to survive the trek east but the models mostly showed them dying out. Obviously western and South jersey it was a different story

I guess that they were just being cautious. They have been forecasting long before these models have improved so much. So they extended the watches further east in case the models were weakening the storms too soon.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s really all about investment and innovation in models like the HRRR and HRDPS that make a big difference with convection forecasting. Models in the past couldn’t produce this level of accuracy. 

 

 

Just a fantastic job, Mets didn’t believe it since the instability numbers right to the coast were supportive

[cleetussnow]

I am starting to look forward to winter.  

[lee59]

Great westerly breeze today,  81 degree high.

[Will - Rutgers]

beautiful night on tap

[donsutherland1]

Fair weather will continue through tomorrow before showers and thundershowers could return to the region.

Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August.

The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week. Tucson saw its record 53-day streak of 100° or above temperatures end. Baton Rouge's record 10-day stretch of 100° temperatures also ended. Nevertheless, Del Rio reached a daily record 109°, marking the 4th consecutive day it has reached or exceeded its pre-2023 August monthly high temperature record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -24.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.832 today.

On August 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.536 (RMM). The August 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.648 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2001) - heat dome was estabished
NYC: 99 (2001)
LGA: 98  (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1989)
NYC: 54 (1903)
LGA: 59 (1989)

Historical:

 

1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month.

1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 

 

It looks like 2 or 3 surges of heat the first one borderline heat around the 12th-13th then a little more from the 17th or 18th-19th a break and then more heat from the 21st perhaps. The GFS is kinda nuts. I'm following the EPS mostly.

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

 

8/8

 

EWR: 84
PHL: 84
ISP: 83
JFK: 82
TEB: 81
LGA: 81
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
NYC: 80
New Brnswck: 78
TTN: 77

[psv88]

84 today

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     78degs.(70/87) or +2.

Reached 82 yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   84-88, wind w., m. sunny, 74 tomorrow AM.

70*(74%RH) here at 7am.    75* at 10am.     78* at Noon.       80* at 1pm.     82* at 2pm.      84* at 3pm.       86* at 3:30pm.      87* at 4pm.       89* at 4:30pm.    90* at 4:45pm.(38%RH)     Reached  91*(37%RH) at 5:15pm.      87* at 7pm.      82* at 8pm.

 

 

[steve392]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

The excessive tree growth over the temperature sensor has resulted in the longest streak not going over 98° in Central Park history at 4000+ days. 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature <= 98 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2023-08-07
1	4037	2012-07-19 through 2023-08-07
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

 

Data for July 19, 2012 through August 8, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	103
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	103
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	103
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	102
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	101
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	101
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	101
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	101
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	100
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	100
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	100
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	99
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	99
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	99
CT	PUTNAM LAKE	COOP	99
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	99
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	99
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	98
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	98
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	98
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	98
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	98
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	98
NY	MATTITUCK	COOP	98

Why hasn't the NWS done anything about it?  I mean why try to keep temps down on paper at Central Park but all the other outliers are at the actual temps?

[MANDA]

Stellar morning of weather for early August.  Temperature of 62, DP upper 50's and a bit of a gusty breeze with clear skies.  Considering how hot and nasty it could be at this time of year this is just great weather!

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Why hasn't the NWS done anything about it?  I mean why try to keep temps down on paper at Central Park but all the other outliers are at the actual temps?

The story made news about 20 years ago when the tree growth over the ASOS became obvious. But there hasn’t been any more media interest since then. So we just cover the story on this forum.

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

 

Recent story in 2021 showing the tree growth and how the weather instruments had no trees over them in the old days.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/new-york-city-arguably-has-the-most-unique-weather-observations-in-america

Excessive tree growth has caused NYC to significantly decline on the heatwave list since 1971. NYC was near the top for heatwaves during the 1971-1980 period of 10 warm seasons. It has dropped to the bottom of the list on the most recent 10 season period from 2014 to 2023. 

# of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves 

1971-1980

EWR………………..………….23

NYC………………………..….21

Freehold-Marlboro….…..19

New Brunswick……………18

LGA……………………………..12

POU…………………………….12

# of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves + increase since 1971-1980

2014-2023

Freehold-Marlboro……..52…..+33 

Newark………………………41……+18 

New Brunswick…………..38……+20 

LGA…………………………….28……+16

POU…………………………….28……+16

NYC…………………………….20……..-1

 

[SACRUS]

 

76 /60 and quite a great summer day.   Mid and upper 80s on NW flow with 850 MB Temperatures 12C- 14C. Thu (8/10) clouds and storms move in by the PM a widespread near or > 1 inch amounts.   Beyond there a more humid/warm weekend with storms chances Sat night and perhaps into Sun morning.  A similar progression to early Jul.  Warm and humid and where/when sun is out it warms up quickly and possible chance near 90. Mon (8/14) warm and drier before Trough moves through and out Tue (8/15) - Wed (8/16). 

The western Atlantic ridge builds west to a point much less than initially modeled but a trough does come down into the WC with heights coming up into the east or an overall warm / humid to hot at times period 8/17 - late month.  Strong heat is nearby and could make it to or just near the area.  Looks above normal or the period perhaos ridge moves over and forced onshore later in the period.  Tropics of course need to be watched with strong W. Atl Ridge near by forcing storms west.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records 8/9:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (2001) surge of heat continued under the heat dome
NYC: 103 (2001) 
LGA: 104 (2001)


Lows:

 

EWR: 58 (1944)
NYC: 57 (1989)
LGA: 61 (1962)

Historical:

 

1878 - The second most deadly tornado in New England history struck Wallingford CT killing 34 persons, injuring 100 others, and completely destroying thirty homes. The tornado started as a waterspout over a dam on the Quinnipiac River. It was 400 to 600 feet wide, and had a short path length of two miles. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Tropical Storm Beryl deluged Biloxi with 6.32 inches of rain in 24 hours, and in three days drenched Pascagoula MS with 15.85 inches of rain. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and over the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma producedwind gusts to 92 mph at Harrah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in Arizona deluged Yuma with record torrential rains for the second time in two weeks. The rainfall total of 5.25 inches at the Yuma Quartermaster Depot established a state 24 hour record, and was nearly double the normal annual rainfall. Some of the homes were left with four feet of water in them. Seventy-six cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lake Charles LA equalled their record for August with a low of 61 degrees. Canaan Valley WV was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)