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Rtd208
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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected. 

The HRRR and HRDPS have been doing a great job with convection. Maybe the introduction of AI plus the Euro eventual 5km resolution upgrade will improve convection forecasts past 48 hrs.

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/ECMWF_Roadmap_to_2025.pdf

 

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A line of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will push across the region this evening. Drier weather will follow tomorrow and continue through midweek.

Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August.

The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week. Today, Laredo reached an August monthly record-tying 111°. El Paso reached 109°, its third consecutive day above the pre-2023 August monthly record of 108°. Del Rio (109°), San Angelo (109°), and San Antonio (105°) all set records.

New Orleans reached 100° for a record 3rd consecutive day. Baton Rouge reached 100° for a record 10th consecutive day.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -27.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.254 today.

On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.506 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

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