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Stormlover74
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7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Looks like the visibility is going down a little bit outhere. Still very smoky when looking into the distance. Visibility was around 8 miles at ISP around 1pm, now it's down to 3 miles

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

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25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

Definitely the smokiest I’ve seen thus far today in Brightwaters 

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49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

Interestingly, I was on the north shore when I posted that. Seems that there's pockets of thicker smoke in certain areas. Visibility down to 2.5 miles at ISP, though it doesn't look as bad now as it was before (I'm back on the south shore now), the smoke was thick earlier. I was very surprised given how clear it was around noon/late morning

And yes, the sea breeze would bring in more smoke as there's less mixing out

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it.

The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. There is growing potential for a significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday.

The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing.

The SOI was +8.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.628 today.

On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.598 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.449 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal).

 

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we'll get more smoke at some point

"On many of the fires we don’t even try. A number of these fires are huge boreal gobblers (I am currently assigned to a 250,000 ha fire, well over 600,000 acres and you could fit  the org. chart on one side of a beer can).

The only thing that is going to put out this fire out and many across the country is winter, 5 months from now. It’s going to be a long, smoky summer for everyone."

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32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not everyone 

Teachers had to go in tomorrow and high school was open. Not anymore. 

From Newsday:

New York City schools said students in certain grades and schools will switch to remote learning Friday, due to the poor air quality, while others were taking it off anyway for staff development.

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The next 8 days are averaging    71degs.(62/80) or Near Normal.

Month to date is    66.8[-1.9].       Should be about     68.9[-1.0] by June 17.

Reached 75 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:   71-75, wind nw. to s., variable clouds, 60 tomorrow AM.

60*(68%RH) here at 7am{was 59 at 6am}.      62* at 8am.      65* at 11am.      67* at Noon.     68* at 1pm.      71* at 3pm.      74* at 3:30pm.

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63 and clear for now.  Looks to cloud up later today with some scattered showers possible but not widespread..  Trough and subsequent (#3) ULL/cut off lift out and flow goes around to the SW (westerly) pushing us back towards to normal.   With enough sun Sunday (6/11) and Mon (6/12) could over perform mid / upper 80s in the warm spots. 

Next ULL cuts off (#4) under the advancing expansion of the ridge 6/13 - 6/17 into the Great Lakes and slowly moves into the northeast.  Southerly flow could deliver meaningful rain in the period Tue (6/13) and later in the week.    Clouds look to be nearby but any clearling will see a warmer more muggy result.

Beyond there ridging is moving east but a persistent weakness into the east coast will continue the tendency to cut off ULL underneath the ridge.  

Ridging looks to potentially build towards the final 8 - 9 days of the month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

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Records:

Highs:


EWR: 102 (2011) earliest 100 degree reading
NYC: 97 (1993)
LGA: 99 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1957)
NYC: 47 (1980)
LGA: 49 (1980)

 

Historical:

 

1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland.

1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary)

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19 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

WX/PT

When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc.

WX/PT

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