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2023 - tracking the tropics

mcglups

By mcglups,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And even if it hits, it will be nothing we haven't seen several times over the course of the last decade or so.

I'd be happy with a 50-60+ tempest. It's boring lately lol.

 

For the record, I am referring to a powerful impact, not a side brush with 40-50 on the Cape. Still possible there.

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kdxken
kdxken

"0z hurricane models are way offshore. " "they actually got closer compared to 18z  " American Weather - for when you life depends on it.

hudsonvalley21
hudsonvalley21

Sorry, had to do it.   

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro. So I guess a closer whiff?? Wheeeeeeee!

 

In all seriousness, we have 2-3 days to nail this, but I'm not a fan of what I see. I feel like some are really working themselves up to disappointment. 

 

If it comes, you can bump the posts all you want and have a collective circle jerk with the posts. 

I won’t be bumping anything except empty IPA cans into the recycling bin . I just don’t see why some folks (not saying you) have to try and get out in front and guarantee no hit and that they know the end game in terms of track and intensity. I mean the models don’t know . So how do they? As of now I feel it’s a 25% chance of a LF hurricane into SNE . That means a 75% chance of it not happening. I’ll be disappointed of another year off my life with no cane if that happens.. but I am by no means “expecting” or calling for a hit . 

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd be happy with a 50-60+ tempest. It's boring lately lol.

 

For the record, I am referring to a powerful impact, not a side brush with 40-50 on the Cape. Still possible there.

I’m out and block island and am looking forward to the surf with this thing, which appears to be the only given at this point. 

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WeatherHappens

WeatherHappens

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The gfs was abysmal on Idalia in FL.. and we all know it’s well documented east bias . With the EPS and GEFS all continuing west the last 4 days.. anyone claiming they know the end result is very foolish. All the players are on the field for this one. My advice.. don’t knee jerk off an op 

I respect your optimism. I hope you are right.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I won’t be bumping anything except empty IPA cans into the recycling bin . I just don’t see why some folks (not saying you) have to try and get out in front and guarantee no hit and that they know the end game in terms of track and intensity. I mean the models don’t know . So how do they? As of now I feel it’s a 25% chance of a LF hurricane into SNE . That means a 75% chance of it not happening. I’ll be disappointed of another year off my life with no cane if that happens.. but I am by no means “expecting” or calling for a hit . 

I'm just asserting my thoughts. Not trying to pee in anyone cheerios, and honestly....I hope I am wrong lol.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

There was one storm I don't recall the year or the name. Every single model had the system being influenced by a trough entering the Lakes and of course the Atlantic High. It sat and meandered for what seemed like a never ending loopy-loop right off the NC coast. Written off as a fish. Well, even the best forecast, models, synoptic set-up can run amuck. I bet dime to dollar few believed what the ECMWF initially showed for Sandy it was an outlier, so far out (in a different universe) it was written off.

As strong as these tropical system get I remember reading somewhere that UL LL Dynamics dictate track dependent on the strength, size, location. But of course grasshopper. 
 
I have to go look that storm up..."I'LL BE BACK"
  

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted

It's def not a classic look. If it were, the odds would obviously be higher.

I'm at 55% OTS/25% Atlantic Canada/20% New England, with eastern NE favored more than some type of direct SNE hit.

As for intensity, obviously it'll be weaker and not a major lol, but that was never on the table unless this got to the Bahamas and rode up the coast--which wasn't going to happen with the first trough. That said, this far out idk how we can accurately predict intensity when we don't know heading/location, speed, and how far along in ET transition this would be in. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hate to see it. Folks getting worked up over a storm that models aren't even showing a hit or even close really. Normally you want to see the D10 fantasy faux strikes at least.

Those hits are great for a Typhoon Tip memorial dopamine drip, but always lead to a hell of a crash--as we saw all last "winter". 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm just asserting my thoughts. Not trying to pee in anyone cheerios, and honestly....I hope I am wrong lol.

Just using climo tracks a storm at Lee's position has about a 25% chance of hitting land anywhere in the US at any intensity, dropping to about 15% for a hurricane, and 10% for a major. 

If you want to talk CT specifically, 5% chance of hitting at any intensity. 

The interesting thing is that the probabilities of a New England landfall of any intensity don't start to increase about 10-15% until a storm is near the coast north of HAT. Also the old adage at BOX was that they don't worry about a tropical system until it's in the Bahamas, and there is a little pocket of 20% north of the Bahamas. I would say a 1 out of 5 chance of a landfall 3-4 days away is a good time to start the briefings.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, OceanStWx said:

Just using climo tracks a storm at Lee's position has about a 25% chance of hitting land anywhere in the US at any intensity, dropping to about 15% for a hurricane, and 10% for a major. 

If you want to talk CT specifically, 5% chance of hitting at any intensity. 

The interesting thing is that the probabilities of a New England landfall of any intensity don't start to increase about 10-15% until a storm is near the coast north of HAT. Also the old adage at BOX was that they don't worry about a tropical system until it's in the Bahamas, and there is a little pocket of 20% north of the Bahamas. I would say a 1 out of 5 chance of a landfall 3-4 days away is a good time to start the briefings.

Hard to think tropical with this shear

eps_shear_mean_conus_204.png

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As mentioned, the 0Z EPS had 6 members with US hits (4 ME and 2 MA) just through 240, which was already the largest # of hits of any complete EPS run yet, and with the post 240 portion still not then out. 

 The post 240 portion showed another 4 hits (3 MA and 1 ME meaning a total of 5 ME and 5 MA) for a full 0Z EPS total of 10 (20%), which doubles the previous run highest hit total of 5 (10%) that was from the run 24 hours earlier.

 Summary of EPS (0Z and 12Z) runs' CONUS hits:

0Z 9/7: 10 (20%) (9/15-18) (5 ME, 5 MA)
12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) (ME 9/15 & 9/17, MA 9/18)
0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)
12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)
0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)                                             
12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)            
0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

 

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