Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

 JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI.

 Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

 The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has not only reversed its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

And the north pac is progged even hotter (more deeply negative PDO)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

He is stirring up a "Witches' Brew" of analogs for which the selection seems more astrological than scientific in nature. 1995-96 was a much weaker La Niña event than is currently forecast with a PDO+. 2010-11 featured extreme blocking. 2013-14 was a Neutral ENSO event. 2014-15 was an El Niño winter. It should be noted that every strong La Niña since 1950 featured a negative PDO. These discontinuities suggest that there is no objective framework behind the analog selection. Very likely, his desire to forecast a cold and snowy winter (possibly as an argument that winters aren't warming, an argument he lost long ago) is the guiding force driving his emerging winter idea. That his past two winter forecasts have been debacles does not seem to have discouraged him from trying again. Random chance may sometimes intervene, but the lack of an objective forecasting framework assures that he won't see consistent forecasting success.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI.

 Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

@donsutherland1 
He doesn’t care, that’s the thing. He will find some way, somehow to use the coldest and snowiest analogs he can no matter what. It’s kind of like how he kept repeating over and over, even into December, that the El Niño was becoming a Modoki and used 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. 

And he has a real big problem if he’s going to argue for a big -NAO/-AO winter (i.e. 95-96, 10-11), possible volcanic stratosphere and +QBO aside, the solar max we are in very, very strongly argues against it. As you stated, in the last 45 years, since 79-80, every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had, without exception, has occurred during a solar minimum with low sunspots and low geomag. That’s not a coincidence.

Further, SSWEs are extremely unlikely during a La Niña with a +QBO and high solar, in fact, that combination is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW, with El Niño, -QBO, low solar being the most likely to produce one

[etudiant]

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not.

So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions.

So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

He is stirring up a "Witches' Brew" of analogs for which the selection seems more astrological than scientific in nature. 1995-96 was a much weaker La Niña event than is currently forecast with a PDO+. 2010-11 featured extreme blocking. 2013-14 was a Neutral ENSO event. 2014-15 was an El Niño winter. It should be noted that every strong La Niña since 1950 featured a negative PDO. These discontinuities suggest that there is no objective framework behind the analog selection. Very likely, his desire to forecast a cold and snowy winter (possibly as an argument that winters aren't warming, an argument he lost long ago) is the guiding force driving his emerging winter idea. That his past two winter forecasts have been debacles does not seem to have discouraged him from trying again. Random chance may sometimes intervene, but the lack of an objective forecasting framework assures that he won't see consistent forecasting success.

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

Also, it’s suggesting more of a central based (coldest anomalies) or Modoki La Niña 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N)

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N)

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N)

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (snowfall also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N)

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N)

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N)

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Yes that's the one 2010-11 was compared to 1916-17

Interesting that 1917-18 was historically cold but 1916-17 was snowier.  Although both were great winters in their own right.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

 

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

But was the reason for the extreme blocking the same as what we had in 1916-17? And has such extreme blocking always been historically rare, or is it only this rare in our new climate OR is it that in our new climate we need this kind of extreme blocking to get very high snowfall totals? Getting at least 50" of seasonal snowfall seems to require it.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But was the reason for the extreme blocking the same as what we had in 1916-17? And has such extreme blocking always been historically rare, or is it only this rare in our new climate OR is it that in our new climate we need this kind of extreme blocking to get very high snowfall totals? Getting at least 50" of seasonal snowfall seems to require it.

There's no definitive answer in the literature. While 50" seasons remain possible at decreasing frequency, there will likely come a time when such blocking is necessary to assure the kind of sufficient cold for a 50" season.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

HM sounded the alarm at the beginning of November, 2010 that the troposphere and stratosphere were “talking” and massive, sustained high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking was coming. Again, IMO, this was due to both the solar state and the extremely east-based nature of the La Niña in the early to mid part of that winter. As soon as the event moved into the western ENSO regions by the end of January and was no longer east-based, the blocking completely folded like a deck of cards and fell apart, then winter ended for all intents and purposes in February 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again 

I wonder why -NAO are now much more likely in Spring in  a solar maximum year rather than in winter?  Next winter looks like it will lack blocking for all intents and purposes just like this winter has and the one before it, but why are we getting these blocks in Spring now which did not happen in the 1990s? If you look at solar maximums from the 1990s, like 1991, we had a positive NAO for most of the year so every month was well above normal (22 out of 24 above normal months.)

 

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder why -NAO are now much more likely in Spring in  a solar maximum year rather than in winter?  Next winter looks like it will lack blocking for all intents and purposes just like this winter has and the one before it, but why are we getting these blocks in Spring now which did not happen in the 1990s? If you look at solar maximums from the 1990s, like 1991, we had a positive NAO for most of the year so every month was well above normal (22 out of 24 above normal months.)

 

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure 

[Will - Rutgers]

billions of years of evolution determined i had the highest possible chance of survival if i was pitifully allergic to tree pollen.  my ancestors seducing cave women while sneezing, sniffling, rubbing their eyes.  seems an unlikely story

[BxEngine]

Hi @Rjay

[TheClimateChanger]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure 

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

[snowman19]

On 5/8/2024 at 10:14 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

I still remember the one winter, forgetting which one, when the record low arctic sea ice started….all the epic busted forecasts calling for major -AO blocking because the open waters were supposedly going to add moisture and cause record arctic snowpack and lead to -AO all winter. There had to be at least 5 of them. The weenies jumped all over that theory and it failed, big time

 

@donsutherland1 I’m sure you remember that debacle well lol

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just awful. And we have our townwide garage sale Saturday in which we're participating. Probably going to be damp and 40s while setting up. I'm not even sure its going to be worth it

btw does anyone need a large hutch? We can't even give it away let alone sell it 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had less onshore flow than this spring.Since with more more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had much lower instances of backdoors. Since we had more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

btw does anyone need a large hutch? We can't even give it away let alone sell it 

that and armoire's....no one puts a TV in those anymore.   Unloaded a huge Ethan Allen one for $20-I was figuring I might have to pay someone to take it...

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that and armoire's....no one puts a TV in those anymore.   Unloaded a huge Ethan Allen one for $20-I was figuring I might have to pay someone to take it...

nobody wants china and I guess stores everything in their kitchen no need for china cabinets and hutches anymore unless they're antiques

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

nobody wants china and I guess stores everything in their kitchen no need for china cabinets and hutches anymore unless they're antiques

yep-newer construciton homes often have no Dining Room anymore...just a bigger kitchen with a larger seating area....we are more casual that a generation or two ago...

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-newer construciton homes often have no Dining Room anymore...just a bigger kitchen with a larger seating area....we are more casual that a generation or two ago...

yep we just took down the wall between the kitchen and DR. Will still have a formal dining but will be totally open

[FPizz]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

yep we just took down the wall between the kitchen and DR. Will still have a formal dining but will be totally open

Our dining room is more casual now since we put a bar in it and hung a tv.  We use way more now with those additions to it.

[forkyfork]

i don't want anyone talking to me when i'm cooking