Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

brown lawns, withered gardens, and sad weenies. i can't wait 

forky did you have anything to do with this? As always …..

 

[Dark Star]

It almost seems that the 2-4 week forecasts are becoming more accurate lately?  Then again, our below normal pattern still generated slightly above normal temperatures, and the average is based on the previous 20 years which is above normal?

[forkyfork]

 

 

[forkyfork]

 

[forkyfork]

this cold front is very upsetting 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/10/2024 at 9:06 AM, forkyfork said:

the holy grail of heat would be a derecho that knocks out everyone's power before the core of the heat moves in

why cant we get strong westerly flow anymore? we only got one day of heat here

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this cold front is very upsetting 

southerly flow is very upsetting, what can you do about nuking the Atlantic Ocean?  It's polluted anyway let's get rid of it.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/15/2024 at 9:20 PM, forkyfork said:

 

 

Notice how we're getting left out here, can you make a cosmic blowtorch strong enough to evaporate the Atlantic?

Asking for a friend.

[donsutherland1]

This is a difficult post to make. However, it is a necessary one given the importance of data integrity and possibility others may not be fully aware of what is going on.

As winter approaches and JB issues his seasonal forecast (probably a cold and snowy one, especially if he locks in his most recently hinted 2013-14 and 2014-15 analogs), one should beware that he has developed a tendency in "invent" data for lack of a better word to describe his practice. In short, if he makes claims about data to verify parts of his seasonal forecast, which follows two catastrophically bad winter seasonal forecasts, one should verify the claims.  They can no longer be taken at face value.

For example, below are recent claims he made about Phoenix. Almost certainly, they were made to dismiss the magnitude of its growing heat based on multiple tweets toward that end. For perspective concerning the heatwave story to which he reacted, last year he dismissed what would become the record 31-day heatwave cited by AP. Early on, he expected it to fall short of the record (18 days at the time). Once it occurred, he asserted that the previous record 18-day 1974 heatwave was more severe. In fact, the 31-day heatwave was hotter on all objective measures: average high, average low, average mean, highest maximum and highest minimum temperatures.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is a difficult post to make. However, it is a necessary one given the importance of data integrity and possibility others may not be fully aware of what is going on.

As winter approaches and JB issues his seasonal forecast (probably a cold and snowy one, especially if he locks in his most recently hinted 2013-14 and 2014-15 analogs), one should beware that he has developed a tendency in "invent" data for lack of a better word to describe his practice. In short, if he makes claims about data to verify parts of his seasonal forecast, which follows two catastrophically bad winter seasonal forecasts, one should verify the claims.  They can no longer be taken at face value.

For example, below are recent claims he made about Phoenix. Almost certainly, they were made to dismiss the magnitude of its growing heat based on multiple tweets toward that end. For perspective concerning the heatwave story to which he reacted, last year he dismissed what would become the record 31-day heatwave cited by AP. Early on, he expected it to fall short of the record (18 days at the time). Once it occurred, he asserted that the previous record 18-day 1974 heatwave was more severe. In fact, the 31-day heatwave was hotter on all objective measures: average high, average low, average mean, highest maximum and highest minimum temperatures.

-July 2023 was by far the hottest month of any on record with 102.7. Old record: 99.1 Aug 2020. 
- June 1974 18 days: hottest SINGLE day avg 100.5

- So we know they’re not even close. The only Q I’d have is how much of the difference could be attributed to increased UHI:

-Metro was 1.1 million 1974 but was 5.7 million 2023.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23099/phoenix/population

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-July 2023 was by far the hottest month of any on record with 102.7. Old record: 99.1 Aug 2020. 
- June 1974 18 days: hottest SINGLE day avg 100.5

- So we know they’re not even close. The only Q I’d have is how much of the difference could be attributed to increased UHI:

-Metro was 1.1 million 1974 but was 5.7 million 2023.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23099/phoenix/population

Without doubt, UHI plays a prominent role. Unfortunately, Phoenix has no nearby USCRN sites for closer comparison. I suspect that most of the pre-2000 warming was due to UHI, but most of the 2000-present warming is due to climate change.

Although not a perfect proxy for Phoenix, Tucson has a nearby USCRN site (Tucson 11W). Summers have warmed at the USCRN site by 0.83° per decade since 2003 (beginning of its record). At Tucson, summers have warmed by nearly 1.26° per decade. As USCRN sites are on areas that are not being developed and have overall stable site characteristics, they provide a good measure for changes attributed solely to climate change. Comparing trends between the two sites, just under two-thirds of Tucson's summer warming (2003-2023) was attributable to climate change; nearly one-third was attributable to its expanding UHI.

To cross check, I looked further at Tucson's population change from 2003-2023. Population is a good proxy for UHI. Tucson's population rose 33.8%. That is almost identical to the share of Tucson's excess warming relative to the warming at the USCRN site.

[Roger Smith]

Just a reminder to the NYC crew to enter July temperature forecast contest tomorrow, with this weekend's timing I anticipate change of month will not be top of mind ... and contest is getting closer after June's scoring. 

[MJO812]

Hallmark has Christmas Shows right now.

[Euripides]

10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

classic enhanced day bust incoming (many people are now saying this)

Sigh as would just like a decent t-storm. It does not have to be severe.
Hoping to at least get some rain to add to the overnight batch for the trees and lawn.

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

classic enhanced day bust incoming (many people are now saying this)

 

13 minutes ago, Euripides said:

Sigh as would just like a decent t-storm. It does not have to be severe.
Hoping to at least get some rain to add to the overnight batch for the trees and lawn.

Good morning Will  Euripides. It should work out if we can get this fellow to give a repeat performance. Stay hopeful, as always …..

 

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

classic enhanced day bust incoming (many people are now saying this)

The kiss of death

[MJO812]

[David-LI]

Not sure I'm allowed to post this here. I created a Reddit community for NYC metro weather enthusiasts. I'd appreciate if you joined the community and shared posts there. Thank you.

https://reddit.com/r/nycweather

[stemwinder]

Overlooking the D&R Canal - Heard a Summer Cicada buzzing.  First time this year, as if we needed a reminder that it is high Summer.  

[forkyfork]

On 7/9/2024 at 1:53 PM, MJO812 said:

yay the mjo will dominate and torch the east again

[JerseyWx]

11 hours ago, stemwinder said:

Overlooking the D&R Canal - Heard a Summer Cicada buzzing.  First time this year, as if we needed a reminder that it is high Summer.  

Yeah it's been mighty quiet in the cicada department.  Heard my first one last week.  Definitely  a solid reminder it's summer.

[stemwinder]

10 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it's been mighty quiet in the cicada department.  Heard my first one last week.  Definitely  a solid reminder it's summer.

Of all things, I definitely heard a katydid tonight.  To me, it's way ahead of schedule, but I may be misremembering things.  A sure sign of a warm summer.  Thing was yakking furiously, as it does on warm nights.

[Nibor]

https://imgur.com/a/LaZRbDB
 

Witnessed a Peregrine Falcon swoop in and feast on a Pigeon down at Astoria Park tonight. 

[JerseyWx]

14 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Of all things, I definitely heard a katydid tonight.  To me, it's way ahead of schedule, but I may be misremembering things.  A sure sign of a warm summer.  Thing was yakking furiously, as it does on warm nights.

Yeah it definitely is.  Usually they come out after my birthday in early August, and then you start hearing them more alongside the crickets too.

[Dark Star]

T'was pretty much a blown forecast for this week. 

[FPizz]

23 hours ago, Dark Star said:

T'was pretty much a blown forecast for this week. 

@qg_omega nailed it actually 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

@qg_omega nailed it actually 

Showery weather all week, beginning Tuesday evening hardly nails it...

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Showery weather all week, beginning Tuesday evening hardly nails it...

For many area's it rained 1 day for a few hours the first 4 days of the week.  

[Dark Star]

49 minutes ago, FPizz said:

For many area's it rained 1 day for a few hours the first 4 days of the week.  

Sorry, the offiical forecast did not call for spotty isolated showers, and all the maps and projections on this site also showed a rather wet week.

[MJO812]

Alot of sharks are popping up near out latitude