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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct.

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct.

Most models are basically showing around 2” of QPF just to the north of NYC now it’s just what p-type falls and where.

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Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1

This is where I do my scientific analysis and increase the basis that you mention and concurrently decrease what Anthony mentions to get my forecast.


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3 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically?


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I think the Euro is considered the #1. Would that be correct?

That said, the Euro (as per what Don explained/posted a few posts back)...I suppose isn't spitting out as much snow as we think it is

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3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast.

From this morning’s AFD:

By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to
rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model
guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop
over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will
result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast
may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a
bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal
areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from
sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday.

There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the
transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the
cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening
transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the
Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W
Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool
air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some
southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday.

There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the
area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and
through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to
be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation
lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough
passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for
plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point
should be minimal.

 

I'd be fairly scared if I was them about going big at all with snow right now near the coast but I'd probably at least cover with 1-2 inches possibly for now

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3 minutes ago, Jaguars said:


Right. That was my hunch, seems a bit miserable and eager to spread it.


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Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. 

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30 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically?


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Depends on a lot of things. There are verification scores available but usually the Euro is a strong model. 

I’m North of 84 so I do think this has a good shot for me. The past two weeks have also felt the most wintry of the whole winter. Very odd. January was just awful though for winter. 

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Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. 

It’s like the Wall St permabear always calling for the imminent crash. Yes they’ll eventually be right, but what’s the opportunity cost in between? I guess it’s fun carrying an umbrella when it’s sunny just to “be right” a week later.


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7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. 

He is definitely more knowledgeable than me so I give him a nod there.  But my God, the constant, incessant anti snow, least snowy solution is so agenda driven.  Rain, sun and mild are all bowing to his alter. 

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

He is definitely more knowledgeable than me so I give him a nod there.  But my God, the constant, incessant anti snow, least snowy solution is so agenda driven.  Rain, sun and mild are all bowing to his alter. 

I bet he always thinks the stock markets going to go down too 

I know these pessimistic types :)

 

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9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Depends on a lot of things. There are verification scores available but usually the Euro is a strong model. 

I’m North of 84 so I do think this has a good shot for me. The past two weeks have also felt the most wintry of the whole winter. Very odd. January was just awful though for winter. 

This is such a wildly convoluted set up I probably wouldn’t trust anything at the moment.  Chances are you can throw out the NAM GFS and probably just mix the euro and the Canadian but as we saw on the 6z RGEM it barely even has any snow in Boston. the problem is the RGM is a fairly lousy model past 48 too with a set up such as this.  It can do well with simple systems beyond 48 but when it comes to convoluted phases and coastal systems with phasing and captures it can be pretty terrible past 48.   

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2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. 

Good morning ILW. I fully agree, personally, with your first sentence. However, if and when S19 evaluates a potential system and “woofs” ….. I’ll be speed walking to Trader Joe’s. …. That’s if I’ve made it to the head in time. Stay well, dry, wet, or white/frozen. As always …

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