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March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Still pretty big differences between gfs/Canadian/euro for dtw. Gfs/Canada is good. Euro/ukmet went nw on tonight's runs. Guess it's now cast time. I'd guess the bigger totals will be nw of detroit, although it's hard to go against the gfs as it's been more consistent than the euro 

06z NAM and HRRR both came a bit SE, so there's that...

EDIT: Also, the EURO and UKMET do seem to keep the ULL a bit deeper and closed off longer, which seems to result in a slightly healthier trowal (and is also why areas to the NW saw a bump in QPF and slightly warmer air impacts the Detroit area).

But it just goes to show how extremely sensitive this setup is with the marginal thermals.

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9 minutes ago, Harry said:

Damn gfs another tick further se. Ughhh. 

Track-wise, it looks to be the same as the 00z run...

The only real difference is the surface low's several MBs weaker as it moves through MO/KY/IN.

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8 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

 

Edibles. ahh.pngblessed.png

 

Maybe because I seem to have a high immune system but those rarely do much for me? Now those damn pens or  ( whatever they are called ) will put me on my ass. I was at a female friends house ( one who I liked ) and her dad, sister, brother ( First time I met them ) was over and the dad got me to try it. I about ran out of that house. I know my stupid mouth. I was fubared. They giggled thier ass off as I choked on it. Never again. Atleast not in that situation. Lol 

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Kind of chuckled at this from IWX...:lol:

FXUS63 KIWX 030956
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
456 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
A couple caveats do exist with this storm system and there seems
to be a higher than normal bust potential due to the continued
existence of uncertainty in the guidance. In areas with snowfall,
the snow will be the very wet variety with snow ratios of about
6:1 to 10:1, so this makes the removal of snow much harder to
shovel. Also, due to the wet nature of the snowfall there will be
much more compaction with this snow which can lead to misleading
snow measurements as once the snow falls and a measurement is
taken, the actual depth will be less than actual snow amounts that
have fallen. So keep this in mind. Another issue is that with this
forecast we have taken evaporational cooling into account to allow
for snowfall and this will not remain constant through the event
which will introduce the potential for rainfall mixing in at times
once the lower levels moisten up later this afternoon. So as I
said earlier that this is was a very difficult forecast. So I
guess what I am saying is be gentle with us if this system does
not exactly go according to plan.
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Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess 

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8 minutes ago, King James said:

Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess 

The bust potential is huge for many!!

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8 minutes ago, Lightning said:

The bust potential is huge for many!!

Feel like I have the greatest BOOM potential as well. Skilling is pretty bullish and that slug of moisture looks A+. Just got to get it to change over and keep pushing north 

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25 minutes ago, King James said:

Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess 

Yeah, no idea. 0z models looked really good, but everything at 6z went east. HRRR and RAP are bleeding east with every run. Kinda stupid this close in. Has shades of Feb 2016, but shittier thermals. Think my final call is 0-6". We'll hope for the best of course. :D

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1 minute ago, NYC10023 said:

2 pages of model discussion and not 1 screenshot of said models to visualize what is being discussed. This sub forum would be so much better if these were attached. :huh:

because the time for posting models has passed. It's nowcast time pretty much. And frankly, if I see another model run after the last 5 days with this event I might wretch.

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