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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I am more inclined to believe the 2m temps in this type of setup vs the radiational cooling nights. The warmest 2m temps are the NAM right now which is your -5 to -6 range. GFS is maybe barely colder. Euro is wild with -10 or colder.

I went back and looked at Vday 2016 and the Euro was going like -11 or -12 at BOS, so it ended up a couple degrees too cold, but not too far off. GFS was awful in that one....was like 5F too warm 36 hours out. Though I know the model has been upgraded since then. The MAV guidance was hilarious though....it was like 8-10F too warm. Too much climo on a 24 hour forecast i guess. :lol:

HRRR is -10. Part of me wonders that when the real strong CAA levels off on 300 winds, Logan sometimes will take 4 hrs to drop 1F. That's why earlier I was unsure of colder than -6, but with guidance still gung ho, -7 or -8 definitely looks close to a lock. Not that it matters a whole lot. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is -10. Part of me wonders that when the real strong CAA levels off on 300 winds, Logan sometimes will take 4 hrs to drop 1F. That's why earlier I was unsure of colder than -6, but with guidance still gung ho, -7 or -8 definitely looks close to a lock. Not that it matters a whole lot. 

-35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

-35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference.

What was 925 back in 2016 at Logan?

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Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school.  Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time.  Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary.  She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut!  I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school.  Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time.  Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary.  She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut!  I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events.

Live free or die baby.

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school.  Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time.  Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary.  She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut!  I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events.

Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…).

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What was 925 back in 2016 at Logan?

Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere.

The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short.

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6 minutes ago, adam038 said:

Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…).

Damn-I have a meeting at the university at Noon.  WAs look forward to weenieing out on my car thermometer especially on the way home.  Hopefully no cancellation.

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere.

The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short.

I had this saved on my ipad. H95

image.gif

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24 minutes ago, adam038 said:

Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…).

 

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Damn-I have a meeting at the university at Noon.  WAs look forward to weenieing out on my car thermometer especially on the way home.  Hopefully no cancellation.

I doubt any Universities cancel.  The public schools that cancel are prob more concerned with little kids at bus stops etc.   plus if busses can’t start…

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47 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school.  Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time.  Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary.  She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut!  I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events.

Most school district in most Department of Public Works are completely out of touch with the weather, outside of what they hear from broadcast Mets, TWC or the NWS p/c forecasts. 

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Most school district in most Department of Public Works are completely out of touch with the weather, outside of what they hear from broadcast Mets, TWC or the NWS p/c forecasts. 

My wife’s super already told them they would have a full school day.  That’s a relief. 

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had this saved on my ipad. H95

image.gif

Nice, so that def is in line with 925 cracking -30C....we basically have:

Euro/HRRR: Rivaling (or even slightly exceeding on HRRR) 2016

GFS: Just a tick below? Though for CNE/NNE, it is a little colder....slightly warmer in SNE.

NAM: Several ticks warmer than 2016

 

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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife’s super already told them they would have a full school day.  That’s a relief. 

The big Western Mass cities have all canceled for tomorrow.  Springfield, Holyoke and Chicopee.  My gut tells me that Northampton and Greenfield will probably cancel also.  Greenfield has a lot of kids that walk to school, so it will be interesting to see what happens. 

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