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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Angry Scooter

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Excuse me while I take my undies off for wind chills in CAR.

Lol poor guy has 2 kids dying for snow. Meanwhile he is throwing the remote at Jim  Cantore and zipping the mouse across the room after viewing the EPS.

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Aside from the inconvenience and half the weekend indoors, you get the myriad unknown mechanical, electrical and plumbing failures to boot. 

This shit sucks. 

If this happens more than twice this season I’m packing and headed south. 

With the geese?

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Aside from the inconvenience and half the weekend indoors, you get the myriad unknown mechanical, electrical and plumbing failures to boot. 

This shit sucks. 

If this happens more than twice this season I’m packing and headed south

Following the geese?

Agree though. Useless weather for most. Luckily these are becoming less frequent and shorter. 

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I realize y'all be jokin' but ... I'll still say I'm not sure about 'shorts weather' next week. But with the state of hypertension in younger generations alarming in medical journals to NCBI papers ... that'll cook up enough body heat to think it is LOL

No, but I see it returning to 38 to 48 type temperature tendency ...  2-meters in the deterministic models are really still capped at or < 40, so I'm willing lean a bit on those sources as (likely) poorly handling the BL aspects. So supplying a modest positive correction.  But that does not look like a 'balmy' time when supplying that fix.  I think there's been some romanticism around the notion of this cold incursion having a handsome noteworthy turn around ... Objectively, I'm wondering why-for folks are thinking this? 

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2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

So is the consensus that Euro is right at this point?

It will be the most correct if we're talking about runs from yesterday....but it could still be a smidge too cold. But GFS was clearly too warm and it trended a lot toward Euro so now the differences are small.

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Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough.  Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F.
"...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer  PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) 

Studies on the HWA show similar results.  Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE.  I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone.  Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife.  Bring it!

 

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