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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? 

(genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance)

Not sure but the GFS op has been doing horribly so...

And usually the ens follows op but the fact that it's holding out gives me a good feeling along with EPS/Euro which we know are better... We'll see tho

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? 

(genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance)

The ensemble mean consistently outperforms the Op model beyond about D4. But doesn’t mean that’s 100% true. If the Op runs remain outliers around D5, I’d start to wonder if it’s on to something. 

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7.

GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.

The plot thickens.  One thing that makes me nervous is when the op holds serve…with similar solution…like 12 and 18z…0z will be interesting.  

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.

I don’t have time (nor do I think it’s worth it) to dig deep into it but from a quick eyeball of the individual members it doesn’t seem any are true cutters. There are 2 that amplify too soon for our purposes but still track west to east under us and bring some frozen precip to the northern parts of this forum at least, but the big snow is PA line north. Then there are a bunch of op euro looking solutions that miss just to the southeast with the best snow. The rest seem to be a camp that fails to get its act together between a northern and southern wave. The northern wave weakly slides over the top and the southern is suppressed.  Some of those might be giving the impression of a cutter.  But they aren’t big snows anywhere just a split system with a weak wave to our west. It has a lot of spread which is to be expected at this range. 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today.

I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between.

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

No reason to post the GEFS snow maps….

Honestly looking at the individual members this run is identical to 12z. The difference in the mean is at 12z there was one member with 30-40” directly over us.  This run there are 2 crazy members like that but one misses just north and one just south and so the mean looks less impressive. But looking at the scope it’s a very similar spread and the probabilities of snow look about the same.     

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Honestly looking at the individual members this run is identical to 12z. The difference in the mean is at 12z there was one member with 30-40” directly over us.  This run there are 2 crazy members like that but one misses just north and one just south and so the mean looks less impressive. But looking at the scope it’s a very similar spread and the probabilities of snow look about the same.     

yeah and honestly the probs actually slightly increased

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between.

Yes but it had that same spread at 12z it was just masked on the mean by that one member that dropped 40” over DC lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Fixed

Gimme 50 on the GFS/CMC.  Bristow sucks.  We can’t snow even if you built a snowglobe around the entire area and shook it.  It would take a really big hand to do that but that’s also not relevant. 

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