AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 better phasing this run for a proper 50/50 low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is stronger confluence a good thing tho? (thinking about suppression) yeah, if there's no confluence this system has no shot. rather be worried about suppression than a lack of cold air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs I will put money on none of them this far out. We always do this to ourselves. When will we learn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: i'm just posting a map lmao Well to be honest, it does set up the Jan 12/13 event nicely by becoming the 50/50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance) I would pray to god that the OP caves to the ENS. if not, it's a horrible ensemble lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance) Not sure but the GFS op has been doing horribly so... And usually the ens follows op but the fact that it's holding out gives me a good feeling along with EPS/Euro which we know are better... We'll see tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance) The ensemble mean consistently outperforms the Op model beyond about D4. But doesn’t mean that’s 100% true. If the Op runs remain outliers around D5, I’d start to wonder if it’s on to something. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: Not sure but the GFS op has been doing horribly so... Yeah we need to look no further than last month's debacle...Dang thing ain't get it right until D5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: As @brooklynwx99 and @AtlanticWx have said, more confluence over the northeast and a taller Rockies ridge this GEFS run. But also more hints of phasing in northern stream energy around D6-7. GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. pressure map has less cutters which is weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. The plot thickens. One thing that makes me nervous is when the op holds serve…with similar solution…like 12 and 18z…0z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 No reason to post the GEFS snow maps…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The plot thickens. One thing that makes me nervous is when the op holds serve…with similar solution…like 12 and 18z…0z will be interesting. Remember last month when it "held serve" with a great solution before finally caving at like D5, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. I don’t have time (nor do I think it’s worth it) to dig deep into it but from a quick eyeball of the individual members it doesn’t seem any are true cutters. There are 2 that amplify too soon for our purposes but still track west to east under us and bring some frozen precip to the northern parts of this forum at least, but the big snow is PA line north. Then there are a bunch of op euro looking solutions that miss just to the southeast with the best snow. The rest seem to be a camp that fails to get its act together between a northern and southern wave. The northern wave weakly slides over the top and the southern is suppressed. Some of those might be giving the impression of a cutter. But they aren’t big snows anywhere just a split system with a weak wave to our west. It has a lot of spread which is to be expected at this range. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Remember last month when it "held serve" with a great solution before finally caving at like D5, lol Yes yes I do. We have lots of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 CURRENT MID-ATLANTIC BRISTOW BULLSEYE MONEY LINE -EURO/EPS/GEFS -140 -GFS/CMC +225 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: CURRENT MID-ATLANTIC BRISTOL BULLSEYE MONEY LINE -EURO/EPS/GEFS -140 -GFS/CMC +225 I hope you mean Bristow not Bristol. Then we all lose. They win of course. But it’s not relevant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope you mean Bristow not Bristol. Then we all lose. They win of course. But it’s not relevant here. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: No reason to post the GEFS snow maps…. Honestly looking at the individual members this run is identical to 12z. The difference in the mean is at 12z there was one member with 30-40” directly over us. This run there are 2 crazy members like that but one misses just north and one just south and so the mean looks less impressive. But looking at the scope it’s a very similar spread and the probabilities of snow look about the same. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Honestly looking at the individual members this run is identical to 12z. The difference in the mean is at 12z there was one member with 30-40” directly over us. This run there are 2 crazy members like that but one misses just north and one just south and so the mean looks less impressive. But looking at the scope it’s a very similar spread and the probabilities of snow look about the same. yeah and honestly the probs actually slightly increased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between. Yes but it had that same spread at 12z it was just masked on the mean by that one member that dropped 40” over DC lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Looks better up top, but still not Euro-esque That’s always a great start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: CURRENT MID-ATLANTIC BRISTOW BULLSEYE MONEY LINE -EURO/EPS/GEFS -140 -GFS/CMC +225 Give me the GFS Jan 9th and EURO 11th-15th parlay +480 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Fixed Gimme 50 on the GFS/CMC. Bristow sucks. We can’t snow even if you built a snowglobe around the entire area and shook it. It would take a really big hand to do that but that’s also not relevant. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 45 minutes ago, Solution Man said: CURRENT MID-ATLANTIC BRISTOW BULLSEYE MONEY LINE -EURO/EPS/GEFS -140 -GFS/CMC +225 Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Interesting outcomes should an event unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing. You guys are funny AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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