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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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Given that there is a tiny chance at something next week, we'll go ahead and open up the 2023 iteration of the thread. I doubt it will amount to much of anything (perhaps a better chance in the Carolinas and far SEVA) but we'll see. 

General mid to long range discussion can go in here, as can discussion about past events etc. In past years this has also served as a bit of an "on the fly" obs thread for events that are too small to warrant a separate thread. Pretty casual rules in this annual thread. Looking forward to our usual folks 

And as always - attached is the @WxWatcher007 tier system for our severe threats here in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. 

58b726d83a08c_WxWatcherPredictionSystem.jpg.c523087658b1c2c3925b48f876fe5c63.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Given that there is a tiny chance at something next week, we'll go ahead and open up the 2023 iteration of the thread. I doubt it will amount to much of anything (perhaps a better chance in the Carolinas and far SEVA) but we'll see. 

General mid to long range discussion can go in here, as can discussion about past events etc. In past years this has also served as a bit of an "on the fly" obs thread for events that are too small to warrant a separate thread. Pretty casual rules in this annual thread. Looking forward to our usual folks 

And as always - attached is the @WxWatcher007 tier system for our severe threats here in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. 

58b726d83a08c_WxWatcherPredictionSystem.jpg.c523087658b1c2c3925b48f876fe5c63.jpg

Man, this scale still works lol

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4 minutes ago, George BM said:

I'm wondering if limited, slightly elevated CAPE will be enough for a few hear thunder tomorrow evening.

12z NAM nest reflectivity actually looked semi decent between 4 and 5z tomorrow night. Worst time of day for something to come through...but sure beats the boring weather around here. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I know it will change hundreds of times between now and then...but I've seen the CFS flash some peaks of a ring of fire pattern for peak climo in May-July. We'll see...

Getting pretty tired of this hunt for snow. 

Give me a negatively tilted trough w/ a surface low tracking up the Apps spine during spring and a classic ROF pattern for the second half of May through the summer every year. This is the way to win. :thumbsup:

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  • 2 weeks later...

While this is research being conducted in the mid-south - it is into the way we tend to get our infrequent spinnys over this way - thought you all might like to read it:

https://dailymemphian.com/subscriber/section/metro/article/34141/noaa-studying-deadly-tornadoes-in-southeast-united-states

Quote

 

Tornadoes are deadlier in Mid-South; NOAA wants to know why

As clouds gathered over Memphis on a recent morning, scientists gathered between rows of radars in the National Weather Service parking lot and released a weather balloon that was whisked away on a 100,000-foot journey.

Wednesday, Feb. 8, was the ceremonial start to the second round of data collection that will help scientists understand tornado formation in the Mid-South — an understudied region. Tornadoes cause more deaths in the Southeast than anywhere else in the country.

The program, called PERiLS — or Propagation, Evolution and Rotation in Linear Storms — is the largest tornado field study in more than a decade. This study is focused in the Mid-South, covering seven states from the Gulf Coast to the Missouri bootheel, and from the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley to the foot of the Appalachian Mountains. 

In 2015, Congress called on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to conduct a southeastern counterpart to its Great Plains tornado studies, known as VORTEX, to better understand the deadlier nature of tornadoes in the region. PERiLS is the continuation of that project. 

NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and the National Science Foundation are funding the three-year-long, $9 million study in partnership with nine universities.

“We are collecting an unprecedented data set to better understand tornadic storms in the Southeast, the environments in which they form and the damage they leave behind,” said Anthony Lyza, PERiLS coordinating scientist.

Historically, tornado research has been concentrated in the Great Plains, in part because the flat landscape and sparse tree cover makes monitoring easier. Years of studies in what’s known as “Tornado Alley” have helped scientists understand tornado formation in supercell storms, but tornadoes that emerge from squall line storms, which form ahead of cold fronts, are more common in the Southeast.

Squall lines produce shorter-lived and weaker tornadoes than supercell storms, but they often happen at night or during the early morning, catching people by surprise. Compared to other tornado-prone regions, there’s a higher population density in the Southeast and more mobile homes, which makes the storms more dangerous for residents.

The storms’ quick development also makes it difficult for meteorologists to warn the public.

“They’re hard to predict, so they have the potential to cause a lot of damage in these communities,” said Karen Kosiba, the National Science Foundation’s lead scientist for PERiLS. 

For the next three months, the scientists will deploy dozens of instruments — a combination of radars, weather balloons and wind profilers, among other tools — to collect real-time data. They’ll pinpoint areas of the storm ripe for tornadoes and position their equipment to take measurements throughout the duration of the storms.

Modeling data is valuable in meteorology, but Brian Carcione, the National Weather Service’s regional science and training branch chief, said on-the-ground data collection is critical to understanding tornado formation in squall line storms.

“It’s an entirely different thing to have all this information so close to the storms,” Carcione said. “That provides a layer of information that forecasters can use to improve warnings.”

Air temperature plays a role in tornado formation. In supercell storms, cold air dictates the speed of the updraft and the strength of the rotation. In squall lines, the role of cold air is less understood, according to Christopher Weiss, a PERiLS researcher and professor at Texas Tech University. His team will deploy probes that measure air temperature, which should reveal its influence on tornado formation.

After the data collection ends in May, a year-long analysis is expected to reveal new information about tornado formation in the region. If they can understand the characteristics of squall line storms that produce tornadoes, they can predict them with more accuracy and issue warnings. 

“Ultimately, the important thing is to save lives,” said Cory Hancock, the National Science Foundation’s public affairs specialist.

 

 

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On 2/12/2023 at 1:28 PM, North Balti Zen said:

While this is research being conducted in the mid-south - it is into the way we tend to get our infrequent spinnys over this way - thought you all might like to read it:

https://dailymemphian.com/subscriber/section/metro/article/34141/noaa-studying-deadly-tornadoes-in-southeast-united-states

 

Yup. Historically our best tornado days in these parts come from either tropical remnants, or a powerful Dixie Alley outbreak. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and April 27-28, 2011 are perfect examples of each scenario. 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Marginal risk for today for some of us. 

The best signal is for those north of the DC Beltway, but most of the CAMs do show convection rolling through during the early to mid afternoon hours.   The soundings to me support small hail more than they support strong winds, so I'm not sure about the 5% wind threat, but I'll take it for late February.

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