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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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19 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Besides this saturday/sunday, the next 10-15 days look below normal.  

We always focus on the above normal temps but never give the below normal temps much attention....unless there is something frozen with them.

Average to slightly below temps is a win in my book during this time frame. That is any year.  

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6 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

Too far out to mean anything yet but the last third of the 6z GFS looks great. That blocking is absolutely insane leading up to the holidays. 

The period from Christmas to the second week of Jan and then again at the end of January to mid Feb have had my attention for a while. I’ve had my fingers crossed that there’s no can kicking coming and it holds firm. :ph34r: 

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15 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The period from Christmas to the second week of Jan and then again at the end of January to mid Feb have had my attention for a while. I’ve had my fingers crossed that there’s no can kicking coming and it holds firm. :ph34r: 

EPS and GEFS have been pretty consistent in torching from December 17th through Christmas. What are you seeing that shows a flip? 

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EPS and GEFS have been pretty consistent in torching from December 17th through Christmas. What are you seeing that shows a flip? 

What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh 

 

edit: sorry I’m grumpy and hangry this morning. There are several things that I see. I don’t have time right now to go over it, but I’ll give more details after work. 

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20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

This is not a torch. I'll take phase 7 for now. You do realize that we will be going into phase 8 during peak climo. 

Fair, torch is hyperbole and I'm optimistic on January FWIW. But this explains why the favorable window won't open until the very end of December at the earliest.

Screenshot_2023-12-08-14-56-47-683.jpg

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5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh 

Sorry I should’ve elaborated- 17th through the end of the run periods (which happened to be Christmas). I wasn’t questioning your statement I was saying it looks like the entire lower 48 will be AN from the 17th-on using the ensembles. Was simply curious what you saw beyond that. 

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That +EPO is going absolutely bonkers and looks worryingly stable even well into January on the weeklies. Makes it way harder to get any cold air into North America. We're gonna need the PNA to do some heavy lifting. Hopefully we can get lucky towards peak Niño climo in February and actually get the Atlantic and Pacific to work together for what feels like the first time in eternity.

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sorry I should’ve elaborated- 17th through the end of the run periods (which happened to be Christmas). I wasn’t questioning your statement I was saying it looks like the entire lower 48 will be AN from the 17th-on using the ensembles. Was simply curious what you saw beyond that. 

I know and I was super grumpy and hangry and read it wrong. My apologies sir. I believe the MJO will be entering phase 7 by mid month and phase 8 by the end of the month with 1-3 Jan into Feb. If we have to be in 4-6 with a strong Nino during the winter, I'd much rather have it in Nov-Dec.  The -NAO should return by the first of the year as well and hopefully the long range is correct and it stays that way. The players should be on the field come Jan and we'll see where it goes, but I'm extremely hopeful and excited about how things should be unfolding for us. :snowing: 

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3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas.  This coincides with pattern change many have referenced.  Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see.  

That system at Christmas is what will set our table as we head into peak season B) 

 

 

At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it  :P 

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