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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extended period is in theory more straight forward now that NHC has initiated advisories on what is expected to become tropical storm and or hurricane Idalia which I mistakenly referred to as Gert yesterday morning. Overall the system is expected to affect our area late Wednesday into Thursday. At this time threats don`t look too bad with the stronger winds mostly offshore. As for heavy rain, there could be a few hours and or bands but dry air entraining into the system from the south and west could limit this. The concern I see is that the steering currents are becoming really weak at our time of arrival of just thereafter so the remnants could wash out over or near the area. Just putting it out there. Next weekend will hopefully be dry and a bit refreshing with the airmass in the wake of the system.

 

^^  Earlier discussion from NWS Wilmington is wondering about whether Idalia will stall out or not

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6 hours ago, calm_days said:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extended period is in theory more straight forward now that NHC has initiated advisories on what is expected to become tropical storm and or hurricane Idalia which I mistakenly referred to as Gert yesterday morning. Overall the system is expected to affect our area late Wednesday into Thursday. At this time threats don`t look too bad with the stronger winds mostly offshore. As for heavy rain, there could be a few hours and or bands but dry air entraining into the system from the south and west could limit this. The concern I see is that the steering currents are becoming really weak at our time of arrival of just thereafter so the remnants could wash out over or near the area. Just putting it out there. Next weekend will hopefully be dry and a bit refreshing with the airmass in the wake of the system.

 

^^  Earlier discussion from NWS Wilmington is wondering about whether Idalia will stall out or not

 I'm becoming increasingly concerned down here for potential huge impacts if a worst case scenario of a major hurricane FL landfall and subsequent track too close to this area were to materialize. In that worst case scenario, it would likely be difficult to deal with due to complicating family circumstances (disability related). Not a pretty situation as it looks now for here Wednesday/Wednesday night:

From NWS at CHS:

WEDNESDAY: MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE   DOMINATED BY IDALIA. 27/12Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST A BIT AND   A TAD FASTER. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING   PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS,   BUT IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TALK SPECIFICS WITH RESPECT TO   DETERMINISTIC WINDS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED   ON HOW IDALIA RESPONDS TO CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF   MEXICO AND HOW IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. SUFFICE TO DAY,   CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME DEGREE OF IMPACTS, POSSIBLY   SIGNIFICANT, WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND   SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM AND/OR   HURRICANE CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BECOME   AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY WITH ELEVATED HIGH TIDES EXPECTED AND A PRE   POTENTIALLY ONGOING. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCED THE RISK FOR FLASH   FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF   TIME TO PIN DOWN THE HEAVY RAIN, WIND AND TIDE FORECASTS, AND   HOW THEY WILL INTERPLAY. EXPECT A VARIETY OF HYDROLOGIC,   TROPICAL AND SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT   SOME POINT, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

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17 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Looks like we will be significantly above average next week, with a legitimate heat wave for almost the entire week. However, average highs are now dipping below 85, so significantly above average might still be below 90 in this period. 

90-95 for piedmont areas seems a good bet

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  • 2 weeks later...

Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west)

gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_20.png

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On 9/18/2023 at 12:14 PM, olafminesaw said:

Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west)

gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_20.png

Looks pretty close to a STS at hour 90 of the 12Z Euro centered off N FL. Note the 35 knot wind barbs off N FL/GA/SC and the good organization and low SLP of 1002 mb:
 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023091912&fh=90&r=swatl&dpdt=&mc=

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 If the 12Z GEFS suite were to verify pretty closely, the SE would have a decent shot at one of the coldest Octobers of the last few decades. Let’s say possibly 90% percentile cold in relation to the last 30 years or so. Going to be interesting to see if this model is onto something.

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