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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 To add to what you said, Atlanta had a high on 4/25/1910 of only 39. After March 26th (going back to 1879), they have had highs below 40 only three times: 39 on 4/3/1987, 36 on 4/5/1891, and 39 on 4/25/1910. So, the 4/25/1910 very cold high really stands out in the record books for how late it is.

  This accumulating snow so late in April could easily be a once in several hundred year event and could even be a once in a thousand year event.

Edit: The old Atlanta newspapers that I read (on microfiche at the public library) and copied forecasted rain and warmer temperatures on April 25th, not snow and colder. April 24th was 18 BN (high of 56 and low of 38) and they thought that that was to be the coldest day of the cold snap. So, this was a big surprise even to the meteorologists!

Great read. Love old weather history especially when it pertains to cold and snow. Thank you.

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5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

 For much of the SE US, most winters are below the mean. Example: Since 1950, only 1/3 of all seasons had above the mean snowfall at Atlanta. In El Niño seasons, 44% had above the mean snowfall. Whereas that is below 50%, it being well above 33% means El Niños are actually somewhat relatively snowy. Neutral are similar. But La Ninas are much less snowy with only ~20% of Atlanta winters above the mean.

 Example: This map makes it look like El Niño is a hindrance to snow at Florence, but it isn't at all.
So, this map is deceptive for the SE US.

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9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For much of the SE US, most winters are below the mean. Example: Since 1950, only 1/3 of all seasons had above the mean snowfall at Atlanta. In El Niño seasons, 44% had above the mean snowfall. Whereas that is below 50%, it being well above 33% means El Niños are actually somewhat relatively snowy. Neutral are similar. But La Ninas are much less snowy with only ~20% of Atlanta winters above the mean.

 Example: This map makes it look like El Niño is a hindrance to snow at Florence, but it isn't at all.
So, this map is deceptive for the SE US.

It is very deceptive :sun:

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It is very deceptive :sun:

 Indeed. Macon is another example. Six of the 26 El Niño seasons since 1950 had above the 1.0" mean. Whereas that's only 23% of them, only 13 of all 74 seasons or only 18% of all since 1949-50 have had above the mean. So, the 23% of El Niño seasons is actually higher than the 15% for other seasons (La Niña and neutral, combined). La Niña really brings it down with only 7%. So, going from La Niña to El Niño more than triples the chance at Macon for an above the mean snow for the season. Neutral is similar to El Niño as is the case for Atlanta.

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3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It is very deceptive :sun:

 Asheville is another good one to analyze since they get so much more snow on average:

- 32 of all 74 seasons (43%) since 1949-50 above their 12.7" mean

- A whopping 16 of 26 El Niños (62%) above the 12.7" mean vs

- Only 8 of 29 La Niña (28%) vs

- 8 of 19 neutral (42%)

 So, going from La Niña to El Niño more than doubles the chance vs the prior winter for a snowy winter at Asheville.


15 seasons since 1949-50 had 20"+:

 - 7 of 26 El Niño (27%)

 - 5 of 19 neutral (26%)

 - 3 of 29 La Niña (10%)

 So, the chance for a very snowy winter at Asheville nearly triples from prior winter when going from La Niña to El Niño.

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On 4/27/2023 at 6:31 PM, wncsnow said:

Next weekend looking wet too. 

I'm tired of rain every weekend  :angry:   I don't want to use a vacation/pto day just to go play in mby :(  On the bright side, there is no drought and the waterfalls look amazing :wub: 

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Although it rained quite a bit the last few weeks it's dried out completely in a few days due to the incessant wind. It has gusted over 40 mph for 3 days straight. That's rare even in Winter..

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/26/2023 at 9:43 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

It is impossible to do any worse than this previous winter, literally. Whatever we get will likely be better :).

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16 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Maybe some slightly spicy weather tomorrow. Anything to break the monotony (although I confess, it has been rather nice)

spcd2cat.us_ma.png

I have to leave town for work so this will verify and then some. There was an ENH upgrade this morning.

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

I have to leave town for work so this will verify and then some. There was an ENH upgrade this morning.

Looks like it will be rolling through pretty late anyway and looks like the type to weaken past the mountains, especially with limited destabilization during the day.

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On 5/19/2023 at 5:13 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Looking increasingly likely that this system will bring soaking rain to the Carolinas. I for one welcome the moisture. May see some isolated flooding, especially in the Eastern mountains/escarpment

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Highs Saturday and Sunday may not get out of the low 50's.  That would be 30 degrees below average and easily set records for low maximums.   The pool is opening this weekend at the country club.  Think we'll hold off a week.  Probably won't be difficult to get chairs though...

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The forecast for KSAV is for a 24 hour high in the middle 60s on Saturday. That would be a record low high just below the record of 68 set in 1972, another incoming El Niño year.

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35 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I am absolutely loving this late spring weather! Curling up beside the fireplace and binging Netflix for Memorial Day is a vibe. 

I just want one official forecast discussion to refer to weather conditions as "a vibe", lol 

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