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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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GSP talking about a low that forms off the Texas coast next Tuesday and they'll  be watching that carefully with the low staying south and east of the mountains with the cold temps will have to keep an eye on that next Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, the weather channel showing heavy snow for Asheville next Tuesday night time frame.  Still a glimmer of hope.  

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22 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

GSP talking about a low that forms off the Texas coast next Tuesday and they'll  be watching that carefully with the low staying south and east of the mountains with the cold temps will have to keep an eye on that next Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, the weather channel showing heavy snow for Asheville next Tuesday night time frame.  Still a glimmer of hope.  

- It would be better if it were about a day earlier so that the cold air has less time to modify.

- 12Z UKMET and Euro are good examples.

- The UK has a nice Gulf low, but by the time it starts to bring its precip into the SE, 850s are already warming to above 0C ahead of it at the end of the run (Tue at 8AM). It also had a weak precursor wave just east of FL early on Mon (3/20) due S of the mid-Atlantic Arctic high that remained too suppressed and weak to get precip far enough NW into the sub 0C 850 mb air.

- If future runs were to show a stronger and further NW offshore SE precursor low on 3/20, that could easily produce wintry on its own. The 12Z Euro hinted at that with small areas of mixed precip over S AL and C GA/SC (even in the afternoon in SC) on 3/20 from its precursor.

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2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

The Ship never came. 

 The ship hasn't quite left the dock. It is giving the ducks one last chance to board early next week. Will they board early next week or will they be left behind til next winter?

 I just did a check of old maps for the two week periods centered on March 20th going back to 2000. I was looking for a similarly tracking GOM Miller A type low with a Canadian high to its north when over the E coast with a SLP comparable to what's progged for early next week (~1035 mb). The closest I could find was 3/13/2017. The high was about that strong but it wasn't quite as cold preceding the low vs what's progged. My point is that the projected setup is highly anomalous for this period. I'll try to check before 2000 later. 
 

 The 18Z EPS had more activity offshore FL with the predecessor low fwiw.

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 The ship hasn't quite left the dock. It is giving the ducks one last chance to board early next week. Will they board early next week or will they be left behind til next winter?
 I just did a check of old maps for the two week periods centered on March 20th going back to 2000. I was looking for a similarly tracking GOM Miller A type low with a Canadian high to its north when over the E coast with a SLP comparable to what's progged for early next week (~1035 mb). The closest I could find was 3/13/2017. The high was about that strong but it wasn't quite as cold preceding the low vs what's progged. My point is that the projected setup is highly anomalous for this period. I'll try to check before 2000 later. 
 
 The 18Z EPS had more activity offshore FL with the predecessor low fwiw.

Honestly everything lately seems to be highly anomalous. Can we just get some normal weather ?


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4 hours ago, Blizzard22 said:


Honestly everything lately seems to be highly anomalous. Can we just get some normal weather ?


.

 Anomalous is more interesting to me from a forecasting and observational perspective. Different strokes for different folks.

 The 0Z UKMET through 144 adds a new scenario of the precursor low moving slowly NNE off FL almost directly toward the cold high instead of OTS. This results in a cold rain moving north earlier into SE GA and then S SC on 3/20. None is wintry temperatures in the 40s) but I wonder what the later frames will show that go out another 24 hours assuming it gets to NC. The cold is retreating but I'm not sure it will do so quickly enough to avoid some form of wintry in NC on the later frames.

Edit: Interestingly, the 0Z Euro has a similar change to the 0Z UKMET with the precursor low moving NNE instead of further offshore. This leads to light snow in parts of upstate SC and NC.

 This change in these two models is making me wonder if we're eventually going to get an up the coast nor'easter out of this as the dominant low as opposed to a more classic GOM low. Could the very warm waters of the SW Atlantic lead to this?

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11 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower.

 

Hell, I did that in January.

If we're being honest, we knew back in December that this wasn't going to be a good winter for the SE.

PAC = hamster on cocaine = poorly performing winter.

 

 

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Overnight models looking surprisingly good for the lowlands. We may close in on a solution a little quicker this time around (for better or for worse) with a less progressive flow.

sn10_024h-prob01.us_ma (3).png

I’m not billing up the threat but that’s easily the best look anywhere outside of the mountains has seen this year at this timeframe from the GEFS

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m not billing up the threat but that’s easily the best look anywhere outside of the mountains has seen this year at this timeframe from the GEFS

Agreed. A lot to overcome this time of year of course. This is what we needed in February. Either way perhaps threading the needle may be possible.

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Not sure any of y’all are following but it’s worth it to give the NE Forum a look today. Their Obs thread for the most recent storm is extremely impressive, many places got 30-40+” of paste. Incredible pictures 

When I lived in VT, the big ones were almost always in March. I took these in 2017 on 3/14 and 3/15:
 

 

buried.jpg

5inches.jpg

17310301_10104145632775599_7675407594632136651_o.jpg

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50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That last one looks fake. Like a zoomed in photo of one of those mini Christmas villages.

It really does but it is very real and those pines hold the snow well. It was taken on the north side of Burlington VT if I remember correctly

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