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January 2023 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Somehow it got down to 1 degree in DeKalb last night. I swear the point and click low was a solid 10 degrees (or more) above that.

 

ETA: Yep, per the Zone forecast:

De Kalb-
Including the cities of DeKalb and Sycamore
814 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

.REST OF TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 11. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 

 

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4 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

After todays snowfall Minneapolis is up to 55.5” on the season. Extended looks cold and dry, but sometimes on the backside of these arctic highs we see WAA snow. Will be a zzzzz period for sure over the next week. No extreme cold just a typical annual Minnesota cold snap. 

h333 GFS has your next beefy jerky storm

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-25 to -30 across the Arrowhead region this morning. Looking at my anomaly chart for Jan, 1880 is the record year at 7.35 (1901-2000 base), so we are going to be rivaling that, I do believe, for our region. Can't wait to see what it ends up being. Datasets are updated throughout the month so it may take that long to get the final result. Prelim data is usually pretty close tho.

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Picked up 0.5" of snow this morning, which brings my January total to 11.6" and the season to date 19.6". Made up quite a bit of ground the last 8 days.

 

DTW will finish January with 11.7" of snow bringing their season to date 19.2".

 

I do think it's cool how so many people made snowmen during the packing snow last week. Every day I stumble across new ones.

 

 

FB_IMG_1675107203415.jpg

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-6 last night.  Coop went as low as -2.  Tonight's low is forecast at -15.  That's getting awful close to the too cold threshold for these particular birds.  I've never used a heat source in their coop but am tempted to tonight even tho my gut says don't.  All I have is a heat lamp(which'll do the trick)... if I choose to use it I'll stay awake all night to make sure nothing goes awry. If only the wind had a tad more northerly component, I'd have solid cloud cover and be off the hook.

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Tonight feels like a major overperformer with cold in the northern parts of the subforum. Especially in the areas of recent snowfall the last few days, and up north where they have 12"+ OTG. Basically no wind, clear skies, and fresh, semi-deep to deep snowpack. You can't have a better combo for radiational cooling and cold air drainage. Black River Falls is already down to -19 and that's the 10pm obs with several hours of CAD to go. Madison is down to -2 with the fresh snowpack around there. There are probably going to be spots breaking -25 tonight in the usual CAD areas.

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Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. 
 

ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover. 

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Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. 
 
ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover. 
Incorrect on the cloud cover. It was clear everywhere until basically sunrise. And I wouldn't say the cold underperformed. We were slightly too cold at RPJ, we had ORD at -1 to -2, and we never had RFD tagging 10 below. We went below MOS guidance. The Euro was overdone with the coverage of teens below zero (and the GEMs are always overdone), but getting 7 sites to -10F or colder in our late AM updated RTP is not really underperforming imo.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=LOT&product=RTP&site=lot

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Incorrect on the cloud cover. It was clear everywhere until basically sunrise. And I wouldn't say the cold underperformed. We were slightly too cold at RPJ, we had ORD at -1 to -2, and we never had RFD tagging 10 below. We went below MOS guidance. The Euro was overdone with the coverage of teens below zero (and the GEMs are always overdone), but getting 7 sites to -10F or colder in our late AM updated RTP is not really underperforming imo.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=LOT&product=RTP&site=lot

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for responding, as always.  I don't mean underperformed relative to NWS forecasts - I just mean underperformed relative to what should have happened given the situation and time of year.  And, the fact that cloud cover really wasn't an issue makes it even worse. Unfortunately UHI always kills things, even in the suburbs.  We just don't radiate well unless there is a very deep snowpack and the high is in an absolutely perfect place...and, even then, it's not always guaranteed.  I thought we'd easily hit -8 to -10 imby, but we only dropped to -5.

Many people here seem to care about forecasts...and obviously you need to at the NWS.  But I only care about outcomes. I'd love nothing more than a forecast of 2" of snow to go horribly wrong, and we end up with 10".

After looking into this further, the airmass itself wasn't really that impressive - thicknesses were only around 520.  So, my expectations may have been a bit too high for this morning.

I just hoped we were set up for an optimal starry night with some crazy temp drops - but it just didn't happen.  Our MSN poster had a low of -17, with some -20s nearby...but nothing close to that here.  That's what I'm referring to.   

Dare I bring up the 1/31/2019 debacle at ORD...4 years ago today. :ph34r:

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