Volcanic Winter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It seems you folks are setting the bar rather low. Personally ..I'm not worried for the NYC s-forum, not on Jan 10 - not from what I'm looking at. Will revisit Feb 10... Observed pressure and wind patterns in the deep layer troposphere signal an ENSO break-down may be underway. The recent attempt by multi-guidance source on MJO propagation through ( albeit low amplitude) phase 8-1-2 is already in a constructive interference with a firehose Pacific anachronistic NINO flow. A planetary wave reshuffle toward a NE Pac AB circulation mode is not altogether a terrible fit for a longer resolution, as longitudinal flow tends to precede the materialization of ridging. That's the pattern modulation... where's the goods? Agreed, but we set the table first. Noting some recent GFS cycles did take a primitive stab at an index scaled event ...way out toward 270 - little or no actual deterministic value at the this time. Give it a week. It only takes one event in/when the global pwat budget is what it is. You could bang out a foot in 6 -9 hours from clipper/NJ model low and still see the sun sun set. I love reading your analyses, Tip. I definitely feel I've learned a lot from you since I began reading the NE subforum recently (especially your thoughts / musings on the MJO). Appreciate coming here offering some re-assurance, tough season for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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