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January 2023


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The next several days will be largely dry and mild. Afterward, a storm could bring some rain to the region Friday into Saturday. There remains a low probability of measurable snowfall in New York City, but such an outcome is not assured.

Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region. However, milder weather will follow quickly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +9.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.226 today.

On January 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.669 (RMM). The January 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.997 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

 

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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I’m still waiting for all the snow and cold you said was coming back in November. I had more fake snow under my Christmas tree than we’ve had in 3 months

Dude stop being a moron and admit the pattern looked good in late November into December .

There were plenty of meteorologists ( not only JB ) stating how good the pattern was.

Think before you post

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4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I cant remember a winter where we've gone this many weeks without any real threat and nothing on the horizon anytime soon. At least the models are getting better I guess at not getting our hopes up.   

At least the 12z gfs was warming up for summer with an east coast landfall threat

 

 

 

 

d7cfe1c8-27da-4538-ab25-6a8387271e93.gif

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The next several days will be largely dry and mild. Afterward, a storm could bring some rain to the region Friday into Saturday. There remains a low probability of measurable snowfall in New York City, but such an outcome is not assured.

Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region. However, milder weather will follow quickly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +9.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.226 today.

On January 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.669 (RMM). The January 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.997 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

 

Wow if that happens

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Dude stop being a moron and admit the pattern looked good in late November into December .

There were plenty of meteorologists ( not only JB ) stating how good the pattern was.

Think before you post

It did look good.  The interior cashed in a bit.  The coastal plain got nada.   It happens.  

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Dude stop being a moron and admit the pattern looked good in late November into December .

There were plenty of meteorologists ( not only JB ) stating how good the pattern was.

Think before you post

The warning signs were there.   The intial runs in late Nov were great but then future runs started showing the blocking too far south and linking up with the SE ridge at times.  (which is exactly what happened in the end)  

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The warning signs were there.   The intial runs in late Nov were great but then future runs started showing the blocking too far south and linking up with the SE ridge at times.  (which is exactly what happened in the end)  

Correct, many warned of the risk of the blocking linking up with the SE ridge due to the SST Atlantic anomalies

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Correct, many warned of the risk of the blocking linking up with the SE ridge due to the SST Atlantic anomalies

This is a new wildcards as well last couple of winters-makes alot of analogs from colder periods not as reliable.    I also heard a rule of thumb that when the SST's are above normal off the east coast, "hit and hold" cold is less likely.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:


I’m still waiting for all the snow and cold you said was coming back in November. I had more fake snow under my Christmas tree than we’ve had in 3 months

December wasn't that bad of a pattern, just a lot of bad luck near the coast but places in the NW parts of the subforum did decently. 

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On 1/8/2023 at 5:19 PM, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows the coastal low that I believe we need to deliver a miracle for us. It grazes Cape Cod at day 6 and then dumps heavy snow on downeast Maine.

 

On 1/8/2023 at 5:07 PM, eduggs said:

In the ideal scenario, a 3rd follow up wave (upper Midwest at day 4) phases with the southern wave, dropping into the backside of the trof, leading to amplification and negative tilting. If we can avoid an initial wave phasing and resulting SLP into western NY, there may be enough cold air relatively close by to tap into a coastal low. We would still need the trof to take on a significant negative tilt, without pinching off the cold air source, to wrap some moisture back into the cold air.

I believe a few ensemble members have shown something like this. But the UK, EC, and GFS are pretty far off.

The 12z CMC, EC, UK, and 18z ICON all get snow to our area or near NW this weekend in the manner I speculated about yesterday. Unfortunately the scenario is less than ideal because the early, initial phase and SLP to Ontario has pushed the initial antecedent cold air far to the NE and we are left waiting for fresh cold to seep in from the W.

IMO prospects for some snow have increased since yesterday. I do not believe this scenario is hopeless, although we would need a lot to go right. Inland, elevated areas would be favored and significant snow is unlikely. It would be nice to get the GFS on board, but it trended away at 18z.

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Every major midrange model - UK, CMC, EC, ICON, NAVGEM - with the GFS as the only exception, gets snow into or near our region on Saturday. That's 5 days out.

It's a tenuous setup for sure, but it's something. I haven't looked at individual ensemble members, but I'd suspect there are a few that drop significant snow for our region.

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7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Every major midrange model - UK, CMC, EC, ICON, NAVGEM - with the GFS as the only exception, gets snow into or near our region on Saturday. That's 5 days out.

It's a tenuous setup for sure, but it's something. I haven't looked at individual ensemble members, but I'd suspect there are a few that drop significant snow for our region.

Its got a chance but would be extremely thread the needle and would probably favor the catskills to New England region. I don't really care that the gfs doesn't show it but I'd think it's more of a real threat if the other models hold onto it 24 hours from now.   

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7 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Lol just looking at the thickness lines you can tell the storm is warm-core.

If you loop like 168hr - 216hr on the 12z GFS North Atlantic view it looks like two hurricanes moving westward in September. I don't remember seeing such well defined mid-level lows in that region during the winter, but I don't usually look for it either.

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6 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

The late January pattern change doesn't appear to be getting pushed back yet on the models. Does anyone think that the relatively Nino-like attributes of the current pattern make a typical (i.e. bad) Nina February less likely?

In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow 

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