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January 2023


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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Boston will probably get nyc avg this winter with the city getting 0.0 

They'll probably get 2-3" easy today, outside shot at 4". A reminder of how much easier it is for them to get decent snow than us. Frustrating. They're way below average like here but their snow average and NYC are what they are for a reason. I think Central Park finally does get some kind of snow event where it accumulates but we need changes. 

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22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here

9/30 members give NYC over a foot of snow in the next 16 days. not sure why futility is even being mentioned 

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But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They'll probably get 2-3" easy today, outside shot at 4". A reminder of how much easier it is for them to get decent snow than us. Frustrating. They're way below average like here but their snow average and NYC are what they are for a reason. I think Central Park finally does get some kind of snow event where it accumulates but we need changes. 

Geographically it makes sense, they are a snowball's throw away from Maine which is like the arctic tundra compared to us lol.

 

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10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is not correct. You can have a good period not produce snow like you can have a bad period like Feb 2018 produce snow.

Sure they can produce (in a relative sense) but there is a cap of around 4 inches in bad patterns.  I've seen that before several times.  But in a global climate that is becoming warmer and less snowy everywhere (not just here) this is the kind of thing we should expect to be happening more frequently.

 

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


All I know is, we have been hearing about great patterns that are going to produce a lot of snow and cold here for 3 months now. The hype started in mid-November, some even hyping “historic” patterns, here we sit less than 8 days away from the beginning of February with absolutely nothing whatsoever to show for it. At some point this winter has to put up or shut up. We have been kicking the can down the road and moving the goal posts forward in time for too long now. To expect some miracle pattern to just suddenly develop in February is unrealistic IMO. The clock is ticking, in 8 days, just 1 month left of met winter

The ironic thing is it isn't just us, this has been happening in large parts of the world that expects snow and relies on snow.  That removes the "luck" part of the argument for me.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Moderate has a chance.  I don’t think it’ll be strong.  Generally the ENSO models would show a bit more consensus over 1.0 by now although they sort of bombed on the 2015-16 El Niño showing it being weak to moderate at this stage.  That said there were other strong indicators that they were probably underdone and many were sounding the alarm of a strong El Niño 

I wonder what the chances are of a 2002-03 or 2009-10 type of el nino.  Granted, getting to high end moderate doesn't mean it's going to be cold or snowy, 1994-95 and 2006-07 were like that too.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The ironic thing is it isn't just us, this has been happening in large parts of the world that expects snow and relies on snow.  That removes the "luck" part of the argument for me.

 

Obviously everything happens for a scientific reason, however I view it as a "missed opportunity" when we have a favorable setup and we fail. Like last year when south of us got crushed. December where of the 2nd storm was a little weaker the 3rd would have produced.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sure they can produce (in a relative sense) but there is a cap of around 4 inches in bad patterns.  I've seen that before several times.  But in a global climate that is becoming warmer and less snowy everywhere (not just here) this is the kind of thing we should expect to be happening more frequently.

 

The issue I am taking is not that it's getting warmer, it's that I feel as though EVERY reason we don't snow or it's warm is ultimately attributed to warming.

Two things can co exist. We CAN be warmer and we CAN be in a low snowfall period that has happened in the past.

Why can't both be true? 

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20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility. 

you have to take what the guidance is giving you. the pattern progression shown by all major ensembles is good, and downplaying it because of what happened weeks ago isn’t a good way to forecast.

by that logic, those that forecasted the Blizzard of 2016 would’ve been called crazy since that winter was so warm beforehand

persistence always looks genius until it falls flat on its face

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The issue I am taking is not that it's getting warmer, it's that I feel as though EVERY reason we don't snow or it's warm is ultimately attributed to warming.

Two things can co exist. We CAN be warmer and we CAN be in a low snowfall period that has happened in the past.

Why can't both be true? 

I just wish one of these marine heatwaves (which it’s hard to argue CC isn’t causing) can happen in a good place for us to get snow lol. It’s been routinely cooler than average the past 3-4 winters off the West Coast which promotes troughs there. If we had a marine heatwave there it would help pump the PNA ridge. The marine heatwaves off the East Coast pump the SE ridge and the one near the N Australia coast promotes the poor MJO phases and enhance the Nina signal. 

CC isn’t directly creating our lousy winter, it’s a plus on top of what we’re seeing. We’re just at a latitude where we can’t routinely expect banner winters, and statistically we’re due to regress to our long term average from the 40-60”+ bonanzas we had in the last 25 years. Can’t go on forever. 

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42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


All I know is, we have been hearing about great patterns that are going to produce a lot of snow and cold here for 3 months now. The hype started in mid-November, some even hyping “historic” patterns, here we sit less than 8 days away from the beginning of February with absolutely nothing whatsoever to show for it. At some point this winter has to put up or shut up. We have been kicking the can down the road and moving the goal posts forward in time for too long now. To expect some miracle pattern to just suddenly develop in February is unrealistic IMO. The clock is ticking, in 8 days, just 1 month left of met winter

It’s not often I agree with you but this is spot on. I personally think we do not get the futility record though.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the chances are of a 2002-03 or 2009-10 type of el nino.  Granted, getting to high end moderate doesn't mean it's going to be cold or snowy, 1994-95 and 2006-07 were like that too.

 

I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too. 

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11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too. 

Don't remember where I read that. But it's because of the walker circulation. 

LaNina.png.c8734496964b483aa7609ed2ea2aabc4.png

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