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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This is a good loop to see some of the changes that have occurred within guidance over the past few days.

Notice the changes with the lobe around the Hudson, the lead wave in the main through becoming more amped, and changes with the ridging near the East Coast and along the West Coast.

So Mondays little disturbance that raced up north into Canada killed us?  That disruptive the lobe around Hudson?

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7 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

I'm not a MET but I have to think the GFS is undoing the precipitation to the west of a rapidly strengthening low?

Interesting. Could it be drought feedback (looked like the vast majority of the CONUS was at least abnormally dry in the most drought monitor), coupled with the fact that this is true, Arctic air [very cold and dry]?

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4 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:
12 minutes ago, mimillman said:
This is a fair forecast

We dont need much to it get back to ne illinois. Baby steps and a slight trajectory change upstream and you have something. Model bleed has slowed for now.

I'd say we're in the scabbing over phase rn, now we just need rapid cellular reconstruction and the wound shall heal. Still have a couple days.

Edit: Don't care if it's a pipe dream, some of us troll about palm trees and some of us default to the worst from day 1 so I'm gonna cram my shamelessly tone deaf optimism into every one of your faces 

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Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters.  This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about?

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17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Minor changes in pressure has significant changes in the low places on the ensembles. 

sfcmslp-meanmem.us_mw.png

 

More then likely outcome but just looking at that and the placement of other features ( 500mb/700mb etc I have a difficult time buying that track that far north? Via the placement of the other features I would expect to see the slp down towards the se part of the state! 

Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong? Thanks! 

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59 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

18z GFS QPF through late Friday PM early Saturday AM... suppose you could have Chicago somewhere in a 6-8" range if we stick with a 15:1 average ratio or so

gfs-deterministic-illinois-total_precip_inch-1868800.png

15:1? Why stop there!
 

If you want hopium just go straight to 30:1. Oh man, this thing is going to bury all of us!

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46 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters.  This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about?

Voice of reason…/\

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20 minutes ago, sielicki said:

15:1? Why stop there!
 

If you want hopium just go straight to 30:1. Oh man, this thing is going to bury all of us!

Not sure what you're getting at, as RC explained in the first thread these snows are unlikely to be 10:1 but will also struggle to reach the kind of ratios that spit out higher numbers via the Kuchera method. Somewhere in the ballpark of 15:1 ratios appears appropriate for this storm.

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11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Psst - he doen't do wind. :rolleyes:

 

???? Is that post you quoted in another thread? I went to look for it in this thread and natta?.:unsure:

 

**Edit***

I found it.. And yeah you are right I am not a fan of the wind especially not with the kind of cold involved. I enjoy being out in it and the wind makes it hard to do 

 

 

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