January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

Oh. And Merry Christmas to my Southern neighbors and friends that celebrate!

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Not a huge ask. But we honestly don’t even need all of that to see a solid snowfall or to have an above average winter. The problem for us the past few years is that pretty much every single setup has been a wild game of chess which requires threading the needle— phases, TPV splits, perfect ridging, Miller B’s, etc. The MidAtlantic doesn’t do complicated well. How many fails do we need to experience for folks to understand this? If ONE piece of the puzzle doesn’t evolve exactly as needed, it’s over for 90+% of the CWA. Storms either cut west or come together too late for our latitude, and weenies are left heartbroken because a few runs 7-10 days out showed flush hits.

All we really need in these parts is the Bob Chill setup: An entrenched cold dome with energy sliding W to E (even NW to SE) underneath us. Some of our best wintry periods in the past 10-20 years have come from simple setups during peak climo (late Jan thru late feb)

Give us a nice cold dome (preferably bleeding down from north of here — Quebec for instance - not the Midwest) and an active jet that brings energy from the west coast to the Delmarva, and let’s roll the dice.

Snowmaggedon in feb 2010 is an easy example. It evolved from a pretty simple pattern. Pt 1 evolved from energy that moved from Baja CA to Delmarva which overran a fresh cold airmass, and part 2 evolved from a clipper that intensified off the coast. All made possible by an entrenched cold air mass and a jet that pushed storms just south of here.

I’d take the simple BCP (bob chill pattern) over the pattern we just had any day of the week. We just had what many would call the “ideal setup” -NAO/AO, +PNA, -EPO and it resulted in nothing more than snow tv for a few hours for most of the sub. Too many moving parts - so we need a near perfect evolution at 500/H5 for areawide snowfalls to materialize. That setup is typically great for NYC to BOS, not DC to PHL.

It’s pretty clear that marginal events go our way less often nowadays - whether its a result of GW or not is anyone’s guess. Because of this, we don’t really want complicated. Complicated typically means marginal. Keep it simple, and snow will come in due time. I’d rather rack up several easy 3-6/4-8” type storms from a simple pattern to reach or exceed climo than try to bank on seeing a KU to save winter because we’re attempting to thread the needle for 3 straight months.

Pretty spot on. The MA has never done “complicated” well as far as I can remember. 

In fact, anytime a forecaster referred to an incoming system as “complex” - that’s an automatic red flag imo. 

[87storms]

Whatever happens, the upcoming moderation in temps sounds pretty good lol.  I agree with the standard west/east, overrunning pattern.  That's our easy way to get snow.  I've learned over the years to look at the h5 pattern first and I really haven't seen a single good one this season (note, I haven't paid attention to every system).  What I've noticed is it seems like the models tend to adjust to a subpar h5 look as we get into the short range (e.g., we usually don't want the 540 line up in the Midwest unless we have a pretty good antecedent airmass in place).  Regardless, we still have 2 months of prime climo left.  If there's been anything that's occurred over the last year it's that there has been cold available, so an amplifying wave (or even a clipper) that digs far enough south could get it done (late January and early Feb 2010 had a couple of sneaky events before the Snowmaggedon/Mauler combo).

[Solution Man]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh. And Merry Christmas to my Southern neighbors and friends that celebrate!

Merry Christmas my friend 

[Eskimo Joe]

We're going to the Greenbriar Jan 5 to 8. Guess we can rule out any snow?

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're going to the Greenbriar Jan 5 to 8. Guess we can rule out any snow?

I don’t know if there will be snow…but have a cup of cheer

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh. And Merry Christmas to my Southern neighbors and friends that celebrate!

Merry Christmas to you as well!!  Or if you prefer to go all out Pagan, happy Saturnalia!! 

[Daniel Boone]

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t know if there will be snow…but have a cup of cheer

Cup of beer

[cbmclean]

Merry Christmas to my foster weather family.

[BristowWx]

24 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Merry Christmas to my foster weather family.

Merry Christmas.  Now get out.  Just kidding.  You’ll get snow before we do.  Book it!

[Heisy]

Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today

Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge.

On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast

Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion


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[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today

Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge.

On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast

Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion


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Road trip!

[Solution Man]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t know if there will be snow…but have a cup of cheer

Merry Christmas brother 

[RDM]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Pretty spot on. The MA has never done “complicated” well as far as I can remember. 

In fact, anytime a forecaster referred to an incoming system as “complex” - that’s an automatic red flag imo. 

Yup - lived here since 85 apart from some excursions overseas for the Gov.  In an environment where everything has to come together just right to succeed, if any one factor is off by a smidge then my antenna go to full gain.  

However, the temptation to hope, pray and gravel at the feet of the weather gods is  irresistible.  The hope is eternal, no matter how many times Lucy pulls the ball away at the last minute, we're still "there" hoping the "next one" will be "THE one" that thwarts the model indecisiveness and allows sheer will-power of the masses to violate the laws of physics and achieve the desired outcome!  Be it a MECS, SECS, HECS or the elusive BECS, we are as a group fixated on the dream of what may be, verses the more typical reality of what will be...   Perhaps the definition of blind trust and faith in eternal optimism.  

[Heisy]

Road trip!

I actually reserved a hotel morning before this event. It was near West Senaca. I cancelled last second. Was packed and everything. Turns out the location of my hotel probably got the least out of the entire region. They were too far S other day and too far N today. I would have been pissed. I don’t even chase snow well lol


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[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today

Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge.

On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast

Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion


.

Thanks! None of us had a clue there could be any potential for this period. It has not been discussed at all here.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Thanks! None of us had a clue there could be any potential for this period. It has not been discussed at all here.

Merry Christmas….you must have been a comedian in your previous life…

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Merry Christmas….you must have been a comedian in your previous life…

lol

Just effing with HI-Z a bit. He has a tendency to pop in here and make posts without reading any of the thread convo that came prior. If he had, I bet he would have made a different post- one that adds something to what has already been discussed.

 

[jayyy]

I actually reserved a hotel morning before this event. It was near West Senaca. I cancelled last second. Was packed and everything. Turns out the location of my hotel probably got the least out of the entire region. They were too far S other day and too far N today. I would have been pissed. I don’t even chase snow well lol


.

Would have been a bad place to stay for sure. When there are SW winds forecasted, staying in between downtown Buffalo and the airport is the best place to be. WNW winds aloft is more ideal for orchard park / west Seneca areas. That’s the norm, so they tend to see more LES throughout the winter over areas NE of the lake (downtown up to Niagara falls) but when the SW fetch DOES line up, downtown Buffalo and 15-20 miles north gets crushed due to an elongated fetch over Erie. SW winds happen less often, but they produce the heaviest rates. I lived up there during the “October storm”. Very similar setup. Unreal event to witness.

[jayyy]

Shoutout to @Cape for all of the mid to long term ensemble analysis! If we do get snow by the 10th, it’s because this gent willed it into existence.


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[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa DC snowfall in non Nino years where Manchester MD had similarly to this year virtually no snow through New Years. 
3.4”, 4.9”, 2.2”, 4.5”, 10.3”, 3.2”, 3.4”, 0.6”

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Shoutout to @Cape for all of the mid to long term ensemble analysis! If we do get snow by the 10th, it’s because this gent willed it into existence.


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I think Weather Will is 'willing' this one into existence lol. I just pointed out how it could work based on ensemble model depiction of h5 progression. Latest guidance still hinting things could get a little more interesting as early as the 8-10 window. My guess is mid month is probably more realistic, esp for the lowlands.

[MDstorm]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa DC snowfall in non Nino years where Manchester MD had similarly to this year virtually no snow through New Years. 
3.4”, 4.9”, 2.2”, 4.5”, 10.3”, 3.2”, 3.4”, 0.6”

Please return the presents to Whoville.

[CAPE]

The 0z GFS shows how it could work for that period, with a couple storms that track NW, incrementally bringing some colder air southward, followed by a trailing wave that digs further south on the 10th.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Please return the presents to Whoville.

I mean even Christmas day he gotta bring this stuff up, man...a rest for one day would be nice. I didn't even wanna come on here to say Merry Christmas because I did not want the negativity. Now that it's after midnight I poke my head in and the first thing I see? That, lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, MDstorm said:

Please return the presents to Whoville.

Those numbers seem like a typical winter lately so at least we should be used to it by now. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean even Christmas day he gotta bring this stuff up, man...a rest for one day would be nice.

You asked didn’t you???

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 0z GFS shows how it could work for that period, with a couple storms that track NW, incrementally bringing some colder air southward, followed by a trailing wave that digs further south on the 10th.

 

Ya we just need 3 straight cutters followed by a perfectly timed shortwave that’s washing out to be just strong enough to drop 1-2”, if it tracks absolutely perfectly. #workingout 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You asked didn’t you???

Tbh I ain't even remember asking for that specifically. But dang it man not today...You like lookin' up depressing stuff on Christmas Day? Like I said I stayed off of here most of the day to avoid negativity, tbh Why anybody is looking up negative snow stats on Christmas Day is beyond me.

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa DC snowfall in non Nino years where Manchester MD had similarly to this year virtually no snow through New Years. 
3.4”, 4.9”, 2.2”, 4.5”, 10.3”, 3.2”, 3.4”, 0.6”

How did you fare early last winter? IIRC DCA had no snowfall whatsoever until January 3rd, with 13.2" falling through the west of the winter. I don't recall there being any events for the Northern parts of the subforum during November or December.