"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I've been pouring over my local wind research for any insights on this one, and it's interesting to note the depth of the 925 layer at PWM. Current forecasts are ~ 620-630 m. That's not the lowest I've seen, but it's in the bottom half. The lower the height the more likely you find good wind gusts as long as your lapse rates aren't negative. 

Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lava rock losing power?

Almost certainly. If he's anything like the grid near our office it doesn't take much.

[wxeyeNH]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Almost certainly. If he's anything like the grid near our office it doesn't take much.

Hum,  I thought I saw a high wind warning for all of NH earlier.  Now Gray has the HWW for N NH but not for Southern Grafton and south.  Maybe I saw it wrong?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

PWM lapse rate was around 6 C/km and the depth was 608 m (both adjusted from the GYX sounding to PWM). Big pressure gradient in that one too.

This one is forecast for ~ 20 mb gradient at least too, so there are a lot of hallmarks for a good wind event for some anyway.

[ROOSTA]

BRUTAL

Guess where the FRONT is?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Hum,  I thought I saw a high wind warning for all of NH earlier.  Now Gray has the HWW for N NH but not for Southern Grafton and south.  Maybe I saw it wrong?

We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

[TalcottWx]

 

ISO NEW ENGLAND 

Hi Jay,

Thanks for reaching out. 

We are monitoring the storm and cold weather, but are not anticipating any issues at the transmission system level at this time. We are, and will continue to be, in close communication with the distribution companies, like Eversource, to understand what they’re seeing on their systems. If there are substantial outages on the distribution system, we will ask power plants to reduce their generation to ensure supply and demand remain balanced at the grid level. We’ll then call for increases in generation as distribution customers’ service is restored.

Hope that helps,

 

[KTBFFH1905]

This GFS doesn't even make sense but I want to believe it given this Grinch storm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lava rock losing power?

Many posters here will

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

NBM has some 50+ knot gusts at PWM early AM...not bad

[TalcottWx]

Driving into work tomorrow at 3 AM should be an experience.

[wxeyeNH]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

Thanks!  The other thing and we talked about it a long while ago is I wished the NWS could have stripe colored lines or some way for the public to look on the main page and see multiple advisories, watches warnings in a given area.  For instance right now if you look on the map it is just shaded for the wind advisory for much of NH but not for the flood watch which is in effect too.  I  still have 12" of snow on the ground and with 2" of water inbound that may cause it's own problems

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Seems like it’s been a while since a system affected as wide an area of the country simultaneously as this one is?

 

[SJonesWX]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you recall what Feb 2010 was offhand? I was pretty inverted in that, but obviously CON/MHT-SE roared. Quite a different sfc low position in that one.

IIRC, the winds were almost due east on that one. this one out of the south east? which I assume has to due with the sfc low position, as you noted.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

IIRC, the winds were almost due east on that one. this one out of the south east? which I assume has to due with the sfc low position, as you noted.

That thing retrograted too and had a sting jet practically for NE MA into SNH. That was ridiculous.

[FXWX]

7 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Latest wind gust from BOX

 

 

Can you send link to this page at BOX... cannot locate it for some frigg'n reason...

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks!  The other thing and we talked about it a long while ago is I wished the NWS could have stripe colored lines or some way for the public to look on the main page and see multiple advisories, watches warnings in a given area.  For instance right now if you look on the map it is just shaded for the wind advisory for much of NH but not for the flood watch which is in effect too.  I  still have 12" of snow on the ground and with 2" of water inbound that may cause it's own problems

Yeah, it is a problem. Advisories/warnings always trump watches, because they are the "imminent/occurring" threat vs "possible".

There might be some flooding, but the snowpack is pretty fresh. It's going to need some time to ripen up before it melts off completely. I suspect the first inch of rain if not 2 will be absorbed by most of the snow across the interior. The ripest snow is over Midcoast Maine, but even that has a ways to go.

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

PWM lapse rate was around 6 C/km and the depth was 608 m (both adjusted from the GYX sounding to PWM). Big pressure gradient in that one too.

This one is forecast for ~ 20 mb gradient at least too, so there are a lot of hallmarks for a good wind event for some anyway.

In 2010 Phil Eck Messenger and I conversed all night as a sub tropical  high wind circulation was drawn around and up over Cape then into the GOM. We observed University of Maine buoys gusting into the 70s before failing. 958MB as it hit the GOM. I believe the highest gust was 94 at the GOM buoy outside Portland.  Was insane seeing that translated inland. Inversion was blown out.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing retrograted too and had a sting jet practically for NE MA into SNH. That was ridiculous.

78 mph at PWM (highest on record), 94 out on Cape Elizabeth, 91 at the Isles of Shoals.

[jbenedet]

Not sure how reliable this guidance is, but not outlandish compared to BOX latest.

Widespread damage in Portsmouth, Kittery and Hampton if this verifies

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

In 2010 Phil Eck Messenger and I conversed all night as a sub tropical  high wind circulation was drawn around and up over Cape then into the GOM. We observed University of Maine buoys gusting into the 70s before failing. 958MB as it hit the GOM. I believe the highest gust was 98 at the GOM buoy outside Portland.  Was insane seeing that translated inland. Inversion was blown out.

38 ft peak wave at the Portland LNB. I thought the chain snapped and we lost the buoy for a while after that, though it seems to have been reporting wave heights after it was set adrift. 

[Lava Rock]

36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lava rock losing power?

We flickered during last wknd's storm, but I think she'll go out this time. Genny ready

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

38 ft peak wave at the Portland LNB. I thought the chain snapped and we lost the buoy for a while after that, though it seems to have been reporting wave heights after it was set adrift. 

Boston Harbor had a super high tide the low tide did not go out so the 2nd tide was even higher. By the next morning the ULL moved in overhead dumping 4 to 6 of fluff.

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

This GFS doesn't even make sense but I want to believe it given this Grinch storm. 

Just flurries/snow showers on the backside.   Nothing to get excited about for most.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Boston Harbor had a super high tide the low tide did not go out so the 2nd tide was even higher. By the next morning the ULL moved in overhead dumping 4 to 6 of fluff.

Yeah I think that is the highest surge (not tide) on record for that station. 

[CoastalWx]

Ryan is aware, but that tide is going to be bad on the CT coast? 

[UnitedWx]

23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Driving into work tomorrow at 3 AM should be an experience.

I'll be driving in at 5a.m. I still don't expect a big deal in this area. 99 times out of 100 high wind forecasts under perform here. I'd be more concerned with the cold front passage later on

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ryan is aware, but that tide is going to be bad on the CT coast? 

Our Mets, and local authorities in CT, are banging the drum extremely hard. They are very concerned. Eversource says widespread outages.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Our Mets, and local authorities in CT, are banging the drum extremely hard. They are very concerned. Eversource says widespread outages.

Is that different than any other event there?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Our Mets, and local authorities in CT, are banging the drum extremely hard. They are very concerned. Eversource says widespread outages.

Eversource probably doesn't have much a choice to say that in CT lol.