Reb Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Weenie alert 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Reb said: Weenie alert 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 28 minutes ago, Reb said: Weenie alert 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12Z GFS says near 0 Christmas Eve on the Plateau with a few inches of snow on the ground... May be the coldest TN weather I've ever experienced! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I see on the GFS snow map Lee County snowhole sticking out. Lol. That's the result of years of erroneous data going into the model ingest system from the Pennington gap co-op site. Sad. That's why the NWSFO's need to make sure everything is up to par at those sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: 12Z GFS says near 0 Christmas Eve on the Plateau with a few inches of snow on the ground... May be the coldest TN weather I've ever experienced! And shows the plateau near -10 on the 27th.... I'm sorry to use foul language but cheese and crackers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On the GFS it still looks like it is trying to hold that 19-20th wave together more and more but still can’t can’t quite get there yet. Maybe it will. Should be some interesting model runs in the coming days. Hoping for snow on the ground at Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 It would seem general consensus for a storm is still elusive. The GFS fell in line so now for 12z it's the Canadians turn to be Dr. NO. That said it seems to evolving closer to the GFS with the overall progression in the southern stream trending north. Hopefully the high stays further west for this slightly later window so it isn't dashed into the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, snowmaker said: On the GFS it still looks like it is trying to hold that 19-20th wave together more and more but still can’t can’t quite get there yet. Maybe it will. Should be some interesting model runs in the coming days. Hoping for snow on the ground at Christmas! Yeah, I noticed that wave holding together a little better as well. Need to keep an eye on it. Would be nice to get some snow on snow with the Christmas Eve storm as well. I can't remember how long it has been since we have had snow fall on snow in the valley. Maybe 2013 or 2014? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12z GEFS through 240 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'd imagine the ratios will be greater than 10:1 with the frigid 850's 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Do we have enough stuff to track now? 6 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 The 12z CMC and GFS both are pretty solid to the end of each of their runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I love seeing so many comments when I look. Means possibilities of snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Modeling shows what minor changes means for overall potential in the 6-10 day and beyond. Northern stream further southwest, southern stream a touch slower and further north/west........ Good steps in the right direction. I'm not ready to give up on the system for Monday night and Tuesday yet either. Modeling has slowly been bringing this back around and I think it's possible a light event occurs somewhere in the southeast/mid south. We are within 120 hours, so it's probably going to have to start taking bigger steps soon............... In the words of Jim Carey from Dumb & Dumber............... "so you're telling me there's a chance" 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The ridge out west will be all the difference for our area, it needs to be a little taller than it was on the Euro to get a solution more like the GFS from 12z. The consensus now is cold, and a system that has a great deal of spread in it's evolution. So right now I'd feel very comfortable saying it's going to get very cold. Somewhat comfortable saying that there will at least be flakes in the air somewhere in our region as we head towards Christmas week, but very unsure about anything beyond that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On a separate note… it’s pretty nice today with the sun out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 It’s a big if but if we get a significant snow, it will be nice knowing we won’t have to worry about it being 70 degrees for a week the day before it snows. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Goodness, I didn't get a chance to check the rest of that GFS until now. Bone chilling temps and some snow showers and another storm trying to pop ( a little late for us) on the 27th. It is below freezing for almost a week as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Did Euro give us any whiteness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Did Euro give us any whiteness? Euro was a good pass, but not nearly as much for the valleys. That said, we are going to see a lot of variations this far out. Both the GFS and Euro have some Miller A in them. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro was a good pass, but not nearly as much for the valleys. That said, we are going to see a lot of variations this far out. Both the GFS and Euro have some Miller A in them. I’m ready for that hot sign to be showing up on a thread. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Euro was a good pass, but not nearly as much for the valleys. That said, we are going to see a lot of variations this far out. Both the GFS and Euro have some Miller A in them. Something I was thinking about…. It’s been a good while since we have seen a cold outbreak this strong, maybe 10 years or something. My point is most of these mods have been upgraded at least once since the last time we saw cold weather being mod like this. I’d say some of the adjustments made were minor but we don’t really know how the mods will handle the cold until we see it. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Quick LR update(Euro Weeklies): The Weeklies pretty much hold the pattern for the entire run. The source regions gets a bit sketch as maritime air may or may not work into the patter upstream in Canada. Basically the top of the PNA ridge height and position seem to allow maritime Canadian air to flow across the top of the ridge. Still, slightly BN to seasonal temps in January will get the job done. Fly in the ointment(always is one) is that that BN precip will be found over the area. Before anyone panics, that is often the signal for areas which get more snow(or it is just dry....lol). Snowy patterns are often not super juicy on precip anomalies. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just getting able to dig through the 12z suite. The Canadian.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Something I was thinking about…. It’s been a good while since we have seen a cold outbreak this strong, maybe 10 years or something. My point is most of these mods have been upgraded at least once since the last time we saw cold weather being mod like this. I’d say some of the adjustments made were minor but we don’t really know how the mods will handle the cold until we see it. . Good point. I would imagine that since climo adjustments have been made{jacked up normals over the years in response to warming} that there is some effect in mr outcome. Whether that would portend to a colder or warmer one is the question. Food for thought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z GFS...Yup. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS...Yup. Another big hit! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 A gif for those unable to look at the moment. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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