Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: where the cold is just pouring over the pole into North America from a very, very cold Asian continent. Just saw that there was a 40 year record low in Siberia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The source region at 12z in Canada is very cold. We have had those beautiful blocks up top on modeling for weeks, but the source regions was not great. Now, the source region is cold, even by Canada's standards. I was looking at an animation of the CMC(could have been the GFS) late in the run (n hemisphere view) where the cold is just pouring over the pole into North America from a very, very cold Asian continent. Yep saw that also. That is something we rarely see in winter. It's very impressive for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just saw that there was a 40 year record low in Siberia. Good Lord! That's lung freezing cold right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just saw that there was a 40 year record low in Siberia. We really need a "wow" button. The hot dog button just doesn't suffice when we are talking eighty below zero. That is only a mere 110 degrees below freezing. I bet when the temp finally gets above freezing there, people are walking around in shorts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 12z Euro dumps the cold westward which in what would be a wild look. The differences at Memphis at 240 in re: to temps have to be staggering between the EURO vs CMC/GFS. Euro looks like a feedback issue which we have seen before. SER hooks into the NAO. Somehow the cold gets under the PNA/EPO block...Not sure any of that is physically possible, but if there is a way for it to be 70F on Christmas, it appears the Euro has found it. LOL. Wild 12z suite. There might be locals which differ by nearly 70-80 degrees in temps depending on model runs at the exact same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EPS looks like it will not follow the OP: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I'm supposed to be going to the Bills-Bengals Monday Night Football game on Jan 2nd in Cincinnati. I expected it to be cold, but hopefully this type of cold will relax a bit by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: EPS looks like it will not follow the OP: The EPS says the operational is on crack. LOL. I still cast a wary eye at the operational. I never turn my back on it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z looks just like modeling did for the 2020 Christmas eve snow event. Those strips of heavier snow in an anafrontal situation. I've noticed it often models anafrontal snow that way but we tend to all get closer to equal amounts when it happens. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 It's 1983/1989 cold as we head into Christmas per the 18z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 56 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's 1983/1989 cold as we head into Christmas per the 18z. Indeed, definitely a strong signal for some wintery possibilities as we head into the Christmas stretch. Having potential in early winter is always a huge bonus. I’m just hoping we can get through the next 24-36 hours without any flash flooding events.. winds have been whipping all day today in east Memphis, you can feel that system pushing in. Fingers crossed we avoid a gully washer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z looks just like modeling did for the 2020 Christmas eve snow event. Those strips of heavier snow in an anafrontal situation. I've noticed it often models anafrontal snow that way but we tend to all get closer to equal amounts when it happens.That is immediately the event I thought when I saw the the 18z GFS. Almost 2 years to the day as well. This one might be on crack though compared to that temp wise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Pretty chilly EPS mean for the Christmas time frame and there are some down right arctic members that look like the 18z GFS: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I’m hoping to see some clown maps soon. If it’s going to be that cold please at least let there be snow on the ground. Dry & brown does not work for Santa’s sleigh. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 hours ago, John1122 said: 18z looks just like modeling did for the 2020 Christmas eve snow event. Those strips of heavier snow in an anafrontal situation. I've noticed it often models anafrontal snow that way but we tend to all get closer to equal amounts when it happens. Will never forget that event. That has to be my favorite Christmas weather event of all time! Heavy snow on Christmas Eve to the tune of about 4.5in and then snow showers all day on Christmas. Of which, the heaviest one was right when we sat down for the Christmas meal. Plus the temps to go with it. High was around 16 degrees and low of 6. Will be hard to ever top that but the 18z run was trying to make a run at it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Will never forget that event. That has to be my favorite Christmas weather event of all time! Heavy snow on Christmas Eve to the tune of about 4.5in and then snow showers all day on Christmas. Of which, the heaviest one was right when we sat down for the Christmas meal. Plus the temps to go with it. High was around 16 degrees and low of 6. Will be hard to ever top that but the 18z run was trying to make a run at it!I had 6.5” at my house and just a few miles down the road had 2-3”. Crazy stuff but that’s how it is living in Knox Co. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I had 6.5” at my house and just a few miles down the road had 2-3”. Crazy stuff but that’s how it is living in Knox Co. . There was also a pretty tight East to West gradient for this storm as well. I stayed at my folks in Anderson County and they got about 2 inches while the totals got higher as drove back to my place in Knox. We had 5 inches at the house. That was pretty surprising. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Today was a model battle of "hold my beer who can get the coldest temps"..........83 and 89 are showing up. Bout time for one to throw a 84-85 run in for good measure. Maybe a 93-94? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Cold front gradient! Cold 8-14 day forecast by NCEP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Check out these analogs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 The GEFS extended shows moderation by early January but holds the PNA/EPO ridge in place until the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 58 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Cold front gradient! Cold 8-14 day forecast by NCEP. I would believe that if there is any moisture such as rain before that front, it would flash freeze once the front goes through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 My concern is the cold overwhelming everything and it's cold but dry. I think we then wait until mid-end January for our next opportunity. I know it sounds crazy, but just my two cents 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 My concern is the cold overwhelming everything and it's cold but dry. I think we then wait until mid-end January for our next opportunity. I know it sounds crazy, but just my two cents Yeah my fear as well. The whole suppression city situation where storms are pushed to Cuba. However even in those scenarios the transitions at the beginning and end of the cold snap give chances historically.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: I had 6.5” at my house and just a few miles down the road had 2-3”. Crazy stuff but that’s how it is living in Knox Co. . Being a Relic, I've lived to see several white Christmas's . My all time favorite being 1969 with 10" Christmas Morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0z GFS now has a clipper ushering in the frigidity on December 21st. Then it gets frigid and upslope piles up on the plateau and mountains, Even not showing up on the p-type maps the snowfall totals go up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: 0z GFS now has a clipper ushering in the frigidity on December 21st. Then it gets frigid and upslope piles up on the plateau and mountains, Even not showing up on the p-type maps the snowfall totals go up. Yeah that's easily a foot of snow for the favored upslope areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The Canadian has the GFS rain to snow idea from 18z. Also very cold, if not quite as cold as the GFS. Curious to see now if the Euro joins the cold part or keeps it's warmer idea from 12z that lacked ensemble support from the EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The GFS is so extreme that there's a late run snow event where New Orleans is too far north to be in the heavy snow axis. Mobile and Panama City do really well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Being a Relic, I've lived to see several white Christmas's . My all time favorite being 1969 with 10" Christmas Morning. Yep, I was 5 years old here in Montgomery County. The 1969 Christmas snow is my very first snow memory. We had 10 inches here as well which is close to the all time 24 hour record for Clarksville with 12 inches. That was my first memory of snow and one of the reasons I love it so much. Would love to have a white Christmas like that again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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