December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[John1122]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Something I was thinking about…. It’s been a good while since we have seen a cold outbreak this strong, maybe 10 years or something. My point is most of these mods have been upgraded at least once since the last time we saw cold weather being mod like this. I’d say some of the adjustments made were minor but we don’t really know how the mods will handle the cold until we see it.


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17-18 was our last monster cold wave. Unfortunately it was also arctic dry. Had we managed snow cover we'd have seen -10s that time. Still, we were two weeks below freezing and the creek had ice 8 inches thick here. Late December and early January cold waves are different due to that low sun angle. When they hit, we get a lot of frozen creeks and ponds. Hopefully we get snow with this one. 

[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just getting able to dig through the 12z suite.  The Canadian....

 

GFS said hold my beer lol

[BlunderStorm]

10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

GFS said hold my beer lol

Almost all the cold of the Canadian but with a sub-forum wide snowstorm to boot. Honestly if something akin to that verifies a good snowpack would probably even things out low temps wise. I'd eat my gloves if the canadian verified and pulled off -10s in KY without a snow layer.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

17-18 was our last monster cold wave. Unfortunately it was also arctic dry. Had we managed snow cover we'd have seen -10s that time. Still, we were two weeks below freezing and the creek had ice 8 inches thick here. Late December and early January cold waves are different due to that low sun angle. When they hit, we get a lot of frozen creeks and ponds. Hopefully we get snow with this one. 

Yeah, you guys on the Plateau westward were alot colder with that one than Eastern area's.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, BlunderStorm said:

Almost all the cold of the Canadian but with a sub-forum wide snowstorm to boot. Honestly if something akin to that verifies a good snowpack would probably even things out low temps wise. I'd eat my gloves if the canadian verified and pulled off -10s in KY without a snow layer.

I was thinking about that as well.  If we get a snow layer, we could take a swing at some all time record lows.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS temp charts for 12z:

I think one member has a high of 0 and a low of -5 on 12/23. Man, what an ensemble mean though for that day! 

[John1122]

53 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, you guys on the Plateau westward were alot colder with that one than Eastern area's.  

I was thinking 17-18 was cold to the coast and the deep south got snow while we were mostly dry but frigid. 

[1234snow]

I think we are starting to switch from “Will there be a cold shot and East coast storm?” to “How far south can the TPV lope drop south and deepen?” Obviously it is still 7 days out at this point which is a long way in modeling but todays trends were good.

[PowellVolz]

I think we are starting to switch from “Will there be a cold shot and East coast storm?” to “How far south can the TPV lope drop south and deepen?” Obviously it is still 7 days out at this point which is a long way in modeling but todays trends were good.

Absolutely… I’m confident it will get really cold and I’m sorta confident there will be a system somewhere but I won’t feel good about it for 4 more days.


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[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

I was thinking 17-18 was cold to the coast and the deep south got snow while we were mostly dry but frigid. 

It did but just wasn't the bitter cold as was Plateau west. Coldest daily high I recorded was 23 during that. Cold but, nothing unheard of. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Absolutely… I’m confident it will get really cold and I’m sorta confident there will be a system somewhere but I won’t feel good about it for 4 more days.


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Same here. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

EPS temp charts for 12z:

I think one member has a high of 0 and a low of -5 on 12/23. Man, what an ensemble mean though for that day! 

That would rival the coldest I've recorded of which goes back several minutes. High of -4 Jan. 21, '85 and Feb. 5, '96. Both with deep snowpack. 

[John1122]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

It did but just wasn't the bitter cold as was Plateau west. Coldest daily high I recorded was 23 during that. Cold but, nothing unheard of. 

I was below freezing from around Christmas until January 10th. Had some highs in the 10s and lows below 0, which is maybe only one of three times I remember that without at least an inch of snow on the ground.

[John1122]

A met on Southern who has been designing his own model posted his latest run and it was a doozy. Unlikely to happen but his model showed a power house Miller A with widespread 12-15 inch totals across basically the same areas that got heavy snow in March. Slightly lesser totals far Eastern areas but still 6+ inches there. No idea what goes into his house model but it would be glorious if it were some how correct.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I was below freezing from around Christmas until January 10th. Had some highs in the 10s and lows below 0, which is maybe only one of three times I remember that without at least an inch of snow on the ground.

Yeah, I remember that. You guys were decidedly colder. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

A met on Southern who has been designing his own model posted his latest run and it was a doozy. Unlikely to happen but his model showed a power house Miller A with widespread 12-15 inch totals across basically the same areas that got heavy snow in March. Slightly lesser totals far Eastern areas but still 6+ inches there. No idea what goes into his house model but it would be glorious if it were some how correct.

Would be magnificent !!! 

[John1122]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I remember that. You guys were decidedly colder. 

 

Seems like there was a big snow event just to my NW and parts of Kentucky that got the snow were in the -15 to -20 range. I got to -2 or -3 4 times in a 10 day period. When that cold hit everything was shunted to the deep south/southeast coast.

[Daniel Boone]

35 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 

Seems like there was a big snow event just to my NW and parts of Kentucky that got the snow were in the -15 to -20 range. I got to -2 or -3 4 times in a 10 day period. When that cold hit everything was shunted to the deep south/southeast coast.

I remember that. Yeah, Kentucky did get hit. It was weird I remember how the cold did. I'll look up KTRI Daya on that period. Think they were even a bit less cold than here. Mainly Sunny and dry too . 

[Wurbus]

00z GFS still on board!

[jaxjagman]

Not as dry that run,assuming its right,it'd still be adding token flakes the day after Christmas

[Wurbus]

Canadian took a step in the right direction as well. Not as amped up as GFS, but better than 12z. Round 2 just showed up for the Carolina's on the GFS.....

[Matthew70]

I would think some pretty high ratios also.  That’s some ridiculously cold air rushing in. 

[jaxjagman]

Its just fun to look at

[John1122]

The Euro keeps firing blanks. It did that often with last years events as well before finally catching up. Hopefully that's the case here. 

[John1122]

I suspect the Euro may have the issue the cpc noted several days ago where models weren't allowing storms to feel blocking properly. They noted that storms should be pushed further south than they were being modeled. It doesn't make a ton of sense to see a storm heading for Michigan with a massive -NAO in place. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro keeps firing blanks. It did that often with last years events as well before finally catching up. Hopefully that's the case here. 

It may mean absolutely nothing with this next system, but the GFS was the first to jump back north with the huge upper low this weekend that the CMC and Euro had been dropping over us to give a good upslope event. Looks like it did that about the range we have for the 23rd system. Euro and CMC eventually corrected that way. 

 

That being said 6z GFS jumped back a touch north with the the amplitude of the energy's dive toward the SE. It's all just going to depend on the angle and steepness of the PNA ridge the vort runs down. Still a nice clipper though for some forum areas. 

But then it gives us this more chances after that. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Saw a WPC graphic on the MA forum, and thought it was odd that someone bothered to up a dollop of NE TN to 10 - 30% chance of 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet, instead of the 0 - 10% for the rest of the area (outside the Smokeys). 30 - 50% in the Smokeys makes sense. 

Leeside of the Eastman Bubble enhancement? 

[Carvers Gap]

6z GFS overrunning event(can't find a better term for the multiple waves....though tech not a 100% overrunning event)

 

[Dsty2001]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

6z GFS overrunning event(can't find a better term for the multiple waves....though tech not a 100% overrunning event)

 

What's wild is thats at 10:1 ratios O.o

[Silas Lang]

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

6z GFS overrunning event(can't find a better term for the multiple waves....though tech not a 100% overrunning event)

 

Obviously one run, but this would have to be a record week for East TN if it did occur. Just nuts. While I don't expect this to come to fruition, I do think this does highlight that we have a genuine shot of a great couple of weeks of winter. 

And yeah, not overrunning, but not sure what you call those events that happen after Christmas. I think I will just go with amazing. lol