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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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I figure that SER, really more of a south-central US ridge, will try to hold on through early next week. Eventually the dam breaks in December*. Just too much blocking.

*That's a generalization. Not a forecast. I have a long infamous history of jinxing weather patterns; so, just idle chatter.

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22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Those 500 charts look almost identical to the progged lr pattern. Dec. Jan. 2010-11 were cold with solid snowcover much of the time. 

Yeah, I was looking back at some of MRX's climatology.   I have my doubts if it doubles down colder after December, but 10-11 was definitely front loaded Dec/Jan.  It is a great fit for the currently ascending QBO.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS supports the operational.  Looks like it is going to be cold.  Main concern is that we are currently experiencing drought conditions.  That means timing of systems(re: snow storms) will be exceptionally important.

 

That was an issue in 1989. It was constantly cold enough for snow but it was a dry cold for the most part.

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41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

What in the world is that at the end of the 18z GFS:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611a8d26c655ed4fdd59a

The ultimate -NAO storm?

LOL.  Glad I wasn't the only one.  That might be the most screwed up GFS run I have ever seen!  I had to loop it backwards to make it look right.  I am sure it will verify as it is messed-up(like on drugs).  

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think w/ potential record AN heights in the area of Greenland....good luck to all models and may the odds be ever in their favor.  It's Hunger Games time for modeling.  

Yeah the interesting thing was that last year didn't we see a record PNA for the season when it was so negative?

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@Holston_River_Rambler, had this the other day.  The 6zGFS continues to advertise a family significant "split" of the SPV 50mb and above.  I noticed this, because the EPS Control briefly hooked the NAO into an eastern ridge.  In the past, when I have seen this...that is a precursor to a split or at least significant jostling of the higher latitude pattern.  With an early season block and SPV split underway(at the very least warming in the strat), modeling is going to struggle as evidenced by the wild model outcome of the 18z GFS yesterday.  For now, the pattern looks relatively dry.  That said, model mayhem is likely well underway.  As a note of caution, recent SSWs/SPV splits have wrecked what looked like a good pattern on modeling in the long range.  Now, in reality nothing was wrecked at all as that was what was going to happen regardless.   I will say the SPV split/SSW looks to invoke a nearly immediate response at our latitude(sometimes we have to wait 2-3 weeks).  That said, the worst of the cold may not arrive unit mid-month or just after.  The actual pattern change which initiates an east based NAO begins in about 96 hours.  That block will then retrograde in the 7-10 days which follow.  So, the actual HL shuffle is within the 5 day window.  It is the dominoes which fall due to this reshuffle which have to be ironed out.

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One of the interesting things about the strat PV disruption is that I think it is 100% related to this NAO block (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg in this case though). However, long range strat PV is showing another sort of SPV evolution that might result in a warming and not just a split:

GFS

giphy.gif?cid=790b76114315410c16a896d55c

 

Euro:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ef9c3a8cf6754c25f8

 

I think what we are looking at in the medium/ shorter range is more like what happened in 2018 when we had the nice blocking in March after the strat split or warming (can't remember which)  in late Feb. the gifs above would be like more recent SSWs but they're pretty far out in 300+ hr  "magical retrograding snowstorm on the 18z GFS" land, so who knows. 

 

It's such and awesome block, I hope someone one in the eastern half of the US gets hammered at some point. With such a big NAO, you might think we would be looking at an Archambault event as the block eventually breaks down.

 

6Fegxjv.png

 

That is a summary of the nature of the events from the page below and was written in regards to a different event. 

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html

 

I think these are the publications if anyone is interested. I may dig into one later when I have more time:

kBTEEmA.png

 

 

 

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The 6z GFS shows what could be a downright magical pattern evolution. Not saying this going to happen, but I guess it is at least on the table. Imagine what would happen if the NAO block trapped a vort under it in a massive rex block on a continental scale:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76117fe1ff2522dcc4217d

And then it retrograded west enough to keep us on the NW edge of a upper level SW flow, while maintaining cold air:

Jd1PmG3.png

 

:weenie:

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not saying that is going to happen, but that is a complete reversal by the 12z GFS at the mid latitudes - complete.  I don't think that verifies as the GFS is simply producing flavor-of-the-month runs every run.  BUT, we have seen more than one strat split/SSW cause chaos in modeling.

The Libs tampered with the Model. Climate agenda. 

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