Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 I hesitated to even look at modeling this morning after Friday night. Things look on track for the first cold front to arrive maybe a week from tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I hesitated to even look at modeling this morning after Friday night. Things look on track for the first cold front to arrive maybe a week from tomorrow. I'm the same way, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 Digging through modeling this morning, there are some "much below normal" solutions showing up between Dec 15-20th across all global models. The 0z Euro control has this as does the 6zCFSv2(20-25 degree departures from normal over TN, and also the 0z GFS. The 0z GEPS is not warm either. I am NOT saying that is going to happen. However, many of us have seen the extreme blocking and have been curious as to why some colder solutions have not surfaced. Now let's see if we can get those inside of d10. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Gotta think solutions may trend colder assuming that Aleutian ridge can combine with what to me seems like the biggest player on the board, the -NAO. We saw several winters last decade where a -EPO and/or a +PNA helped our region out when the NAO was neutral or positive. Feels like the opposite setup here. Hopefully, the -NAO blocking holds strong this winter so we're not continually grasping at straws overanalyzing what the QBO/MJO is doing, granted I note the MJO is projected to weaken. We'll see. Perhaps the NAO will skew negative on the mean but due to the wPAC teleconnections, won't allow troughs to dig as far south and inhibit moisture potential after this wet stretch. Either way, I'm still slightly optimistic at the moment. A mixed bag for sure...but such a better look compared to last December. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Digging through modeling this morning, there are some "much below normal" solutions showing up between Dec 15-20th across all global models. The 0z Euro control has this as does the 6zCFSv2(20-25 degree departures from normal over TN, and also the 0z GFS. The 0z GEPS is not warm either. I am NOT saying that is going to happen. However, many of us have seen the extreme blocking and have been curious as to why some colder solutions have not surfaced. Now let's see if we can get those inside of d10. Griteater has a knowledge of weather. He posts on various weather platforms. I think the concensus is the mjo is a big factor currently. He mad a good post over at southern weather forum if you or anyone wants to look at it. It's under Dazzling December topic. Page 32 I believe. Also a -EAMT is ongoing, which typically retracts the jet and puts a trough on west coast. Eps is hinting at a jet extension, but it's still out in lala land. Not sure why gfs was changed because alot of forecasters aren't happy with its progress so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 Definitely a storm to track per the 12z CMC and GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 As a matter of fact, there are multiple threats to follow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 The Canadian has snow falling w/ temps in the single digits on the Plateau. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 This is the third straight set of runs where winter weather and very cold temps are showing up on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 NAO definitely doing it’s job at 12z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 The 12z Euro follows the CMC lead w/ potential for a wave riding the cold front in the day 9-10 range. Take w/ a huge grain, but the GFS sort of had it as well. With the potential for so much cold to be moving into the east, it makes sense for a wave to ride one or more of those cold fronts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just for sharing and no comment on my part. Will these looks hold? I want to see a day or two more of consistency before getting too carried away on my part. The highlights of the 12z suite of global models... @*Flash* An old saying on AmWx(and its predecessor), when we are talking about the MJO the patten is usually not good. True point on your part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dankles Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Absolutely beautiful run on the 18z GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 32 minutes ago, Dankles said: Absolutely beautiful run on the 18z GFS Yes, yes it was!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 One storm....just for kicks and giggles. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 One thing I noticed on the 18z GFS and other model runs today (as well as ensembles) is the Greenland Block hangs on for most of the runs extended period. I believe that the block will be tough to break down completely as we head into the holidays. The longer the block holds the greater our chances. Surely one wave will hit. Right? Right? Lolz 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, 1234snow said: One thing I noticed on the 18z GFS and other model runs today (as well as ensembles) is the Greenland Block hangs on for most of the runs extended period. I believe that the block will be tough to break down completely as we head into the holidays. The longer the block holds the greater our chances. Surely one wave will hit. Right? Right? Lolz Good seeing you on here Gate City representative beeb awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Good seeing you on here Gate City representative beeb awhile.Thanks! I read the sub forum everyday and watch each round of model runs. I normally don’t say much because y’all do a wonderful job of breaking the pattern down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Thanks! I read the sub forum everyday and watch each round of model runs. I normally don’t say much because y’all do a wonderful job of breaking the pattern down. Nice to have you interacting. You bring some great input. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Models still have the storm window this AM. Euro shows the NAO blocking the flow and we get a pseudo 50/50 over the Gulf of St Lawrence: OP's solution develops the storm too far west, but hey, I'm guessing this won't be the exact way it works out in 200+ hours. GFS has the same wave, but no trapped 50/50 to push it south. We're dealing with two cut offs to thread the needle for the 13 - 15th storm. One an anticyclone and one a cyclone (-NAO and possible bootleg 50/50), so I suspect model mayhem will continue. I think the best case scenario is the 18z run from yesterday (posted a few posted back) and the worst (for now, lol) is 6z GFS this AM (low cutting over Minnesota). Maybe we can split the difference and get some upslope? Window has not closed though. The more I see of this particular -NAO, the more I the more I think we have to have a 50/50 of some sort. Without that, as heights rise in front of a system, with no Pac help to force the track to our south, these storms are all going to try to force the SER to connect to the NAO, and then cut. I think someone mentioned it in the MA forum, but we could have big model swings in short periods of time for discrete storm windows, just based on if some random little low gets stuck in just the right way underneath the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Actually, looking back at the beautiful 18z GFS run from yesterday, the storm window was a bit later in next week. But it still had a nice 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 I am beginning to wonder if the GFS operational is even usable right now. It is either going to score a coup within its own suite(GEFS doesn't agree with it nor does any other global or ensemble that I can find), or it is an outlier which isn't really consistent. I may move forward with a Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS blend. Has the GFS been updated already? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Has the GFS been updated already? It has, but supposedly the newest one had lower verification scores than the old one. Not sure exactly which parameter was used for the score though. I'll see if I can dig up that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It has, but supposedly the newest one had lower verification scores than the old one. Not sure exactly which parameter was used for the score though. I'll see if I can dig up that post. It was a Maue tweet that I saw on southernwx: I think that is the 500mb pattern N hemisphere pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Robert from WxSouth said the extreme blocking being shown would cause model madness but added that basically the physics of how climate works would win out. He said the large -NAO would send storms across the south. He said they might be winter storms for anywhere from Texas to Tennessee or the deep south to North Carolina, but that the pattern would be ripe after mid-month as the -NAO sets up shop. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Does any site have the old GFS or is it abandoned? It was really good last year with storm timing. It saw a couple from beyond D12 that verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 55 minutes ago, John1122 said: Does any site have the old GFS or is it abandoned? It was really good last year with storm timing. It saw a couple from beyond D12 that verified. Maybe the GEFS control would work? That ensemble might still be run on an older version of the GFS core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Robert from WxSouth said the extreme blocking being shown would cause model madness but added that basically the physics of how climate works would win out. He said the large -NAO would send storms across the south. He said they might be winter storms for anywhere from Texas to Tennessee or the deep south to North Carolina, but that the pattern would be ripe after mid-month as the -NAO sets up shop. I saw that. I think that is good advice. I also think you are right that modeling was a bit too quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 CMC looked to be heading somewhere nice at the end of its run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Question I have is why would they update or upgrade to another version that was worse? Why not fix the kinks before updating or upgrading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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