Carvers Gap Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 At minimum, an upslope NW flow event looks on tap for next weekend. I am definitely watching that slp pop just to our SE. Something to watch. Dare we say the pattern is almost in reach? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: At minimum, an upslope NW flow event looks on tap for next weekend. I am definitely watching that slp pop just to our SE. Something to watch. Dare we say the pattern is almost in reach? Yeah, should be at least a couple synoptic snow events the last half of the Month along with upslope events as well if the projected 500 pattern comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 Decent snow means showing up on the ensembles(GEPS and GEFS) so far. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Looks like NW chances have diminished some today. Still a novelty event though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Looks like NW chances have diminished some today. Still a novelty event though. We will see where it goes, but I wouldn't give a lot of credence to the GFS right now. One run its a snowstorm. One run its a heatwave. The 12z had us in the upper 10s and low 20s 1am Christmas morning. The 18z has temps in the mid 60s at 1am Christmas morning. I don't think I've ever seen a model perform so wildly with basically every run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Looks like NW chances have diminished some today. Still a novelty event though. Just on the GFS as far as I can tell. It looks about the same on the Euro and CMC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Some of the 18z GEFS members till have the upslope as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The mean on the GEFS actually very slightly went up on the snowfall potential on the back end of the system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: We will see where it goes, but I wouldn't give a lot of credence to the GFS right now. One run its a snowstorm. One run its a heatwave. The 12z had us in the upper 10s and low 20s 1am Christmas morning. The 18z has temps in the mid 60s at 1am Christmas morning. I don't think I've ever seen a model perform so wildly with basically every run. Its become complete utter junk, imo. It just shows any possible outcome run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Its become complete utter junk, imo. It just shows any possible outcome run to run. I don't think they should have upgraded the gfs. It seems that It was doing better then than now imo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I love our forum but the constant flow of ads is ruining it. Absolutely drives me nuts with ads popping every 5 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, Icy Hot said: I love our forum but the constant flow of ads is ruining it. Absolutely drives me nuts with ads popping every 5 seconds. I never see ads on here. Use adblock on your browser. It's free and works well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I don't think they should have upgraded the gfs. It seems that It was doing better then than now imo It was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The GFS Op these days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 If it could be believed (I don't believe it) the suppressed look and storms passing to the South is generally what we want at this range. Odd to see Miller A's just cross the Gulf and die but no more odd than anything else the GFS is selling today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS being a schizo kind of adds to the intrigue and mystery of what could come 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: If it could be believed (I don't believe it) the suppressed look and storms passing to the South is generally what we want at this range. Odd to see Miller A's just cross the Gulf and die but no more odd than anything else the GFS is selling today. Yeah the gfs has gone to crap. We are within 5 days of a pattern change and it cannot get it's head out of the sand. Pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Icy Hot said: I love our forum but the constant flow of ads is ruining it. Absolutely drives me nuts with ads popping every 5 seconds. I don’t see ads at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I liked the 0z GFS, it was fun! It actually maintained a bit of continuity at 6z in its med - long range, in there there is a general chance of cold and wintry weather. But it spat out a fun solution for the snow showers associated with the upper low late next week. You've heard of orographic lift snows in a NW flow, you've heard of an upper level cold pool causing instability, well... I give you positive vorticity advection snow from SW --> NE on the backside of a huge upper low! Maybe it just counts as a clipper at that point? Rut Roh though, the Euro abandoned us to GFS despair at 0z: It doesn't so much get sheared out as the GFS had been suggesting, as it is able to just move ENE. The CMC also took a jump NE and looks like a compromise between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS, but favors the GFS's depiction. EPS members took a hit a 0z too, but there are still a good number of members who see the opportunity: plateau: mts: For those who like upslope, hopefully this is just a blip in these OPs and maybe the actual block will hold a bit better. *Holston cringes silently since he is planning on being in Boone next weekend* 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 hours ago, Matthew70 said: I don’t see ads at all. I'm on the app in Chrome on a Android phone. None of these ads were here last year but now every page of posts is flooded by ads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 42 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: I'm on the app in Chrome on a Android phone. None of these ads were here last year but now every page of posts is flooded by ads. It's acting as if ur not signed in then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Dec 17th has possibilities.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Seems like everything is getting pushed south of us right now. Maybe that is a good thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 There are ingredients (just spitballing) for a multi-wave over-running event for somewhere in the forum area sometime between the 17th and Christmas. If the GEFS can be believed(huge IF), the over-running characteristic are readily apparent. The gradient sets east-west over the forum area, and then the GOM moisture runs along it. The CMC is suppressed, but it has been overdoing the cold of late. Chance are that gradient is north of where it has it. The ICON has that look. Somewhere between the great bend of the TN River in Alabama and the Ohio...there is a chance for a gradient winter storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 12z Euro at 150 is the setup. No idea if this run delivers, but that is a good look. Precip building over TX. Boundary over the upper south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 At 156 snow is breaking out over northern Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Looks like it may get shunted across the mid-gulf States. That looks a lot like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I am located in northwest middle tenn. I enjoy reading on here especially getting your updates Carver. Finally recovered my password where I could post again. I know our areas need different scenarios to score sometimes but I like to hear the thoughts of folks over here. Hope all of Tennessee can have a great winter. Would love to see snow non the ground at Christmas. Now I will go back to listening more and posting shorter thoughts in the future. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Boundary will be difficult to predict at this range, but that is a gradient storm look on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowmaker said: I am located in northwest middle tenn. I enjoy reading on here especially getting your updates Carver. Finally recovered my password where I could post again. I know our areas need different scenarios to score sometimes but I like to hear the thoughts of folks over here. Hope all of Tennessee can have a great winter. Would love to see snow non the ground at Christmas. Now I will go back to listening more and posting shorter thoughts in the future. Jump right in. We need more folks from middle and west TN. Looks like a nice set-up incoming. Models are going to understandably have a difficult time. Euro hangs-up the cold in the Plains - I think the cold gets further east and I would think its ensemble will show that. This is the type of signal we saw when west TN got hammered a few years back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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