snowmaker

Yep, we received 3.2 inches a year ago today at my house. That was the latest March snowfall we have had in a long time. Usually them first 7-8 days of March is our last window.

I mowed 3 yards today, got 3 more to cut tomorrow. At least I am getting some early work even if we go cool for a week or 2. Probably will end up on lighter side of cold advertised, and hopefully by the 10-15th of April we will have shaken any coolness left over. No doubt I could be wrong but I don’t foresee no super cold. Maybe cool for March, this years long distance bark has been worse than the actual bite. With Christmas week being the exception, which was true arctic cold. But hey next year is another year!

Climatology and the SER seem to be kicking in, it is looking more like cool side than cold side. It’s okay it’s just one of them years the long range pattern to cold is either shorter or not nearly as bad as advertised. Would love to see a quick change but mid month is now looking warmer at the moment. But I am sure we will have a few cold nights but I am having serious doubts we have any below freezing days, things are already starting to push back toward more the 20th timeframe now. I am ready for mowing season. Not throwing the towel on winter yet. But I got it in my back pocket.

The cold or very cool will eventually come East, but the SER continues to flex as well. This was my worry for a snow especially in west and middle Tennessee. That by the time cold gets here we will be on the backside of March and the cold period will be modified or shortened. I love winter weather and I hope I am wrong. But it will do what it is going to do, I am a hard core snow and winter weather lover but here we are at the 4th of March. I just don’t see enough cold getting established outside of the mountains. Again hope I am very wrong, I would love one more snow. But hey there is always next year if it doesn’t. If we had something showing up consistently inside 10 days I would be a little more optimistic but we can’t seem to get there. Sorry so long guys, and good luck to all. I will step away and keep up from afar, bring it home guys!

Let’s see that inside 5 days instead of 10-15days out. LOL

I will take panel 12 for the win Carver.

Probably going to be cold and dry, especially for west and middle Tennessee. Not near as much precipitation on that run. I know it will probably change, and I don’t doubt we will have some cool and maybe downright cold days. But just don’t see a consistent storm signal out through the 12th. Cold in March without snow is the worst and if that is the way it plays out I hope the long range plays out like most of this winter with temps, if it gets real cold it won’t have sustaining power or as we get closer it will be more cool than cold. If that happens we probably get rain. LOL! I am enjoying not expecting much, if by chance something happens and it snows here it will make the surprise better. But at this point I would be happy with spring, hoping for a legit mid March snowstorm in middle Tennessee is stretching possibilities to the limits.

Aside from Christmas the cold snaps advertised in the long range have become more cool like as we get closer. The SER continues to battle off or at least weaken cold intrusions. Things are now being pushed out to mid March. Even if there is a pattern change and it may very well change, once we get into middle and late March it really gets tough outside of the mountains in Tennessee. If things were trending colder for the 4th system or holding I would have more confidence. Really hope we see some signs of real change sometime in the first week if March. So many things start working against winter once we get into the meat of March.

The system next week looks like it will probably be nothing more than cold rain now. Sure it could change back but it falls in line with how things have trended most all year. We probably will have a cooler March than most would like but too late into winter for snow in west or middle. I just think this winter is where the 10-15 day always looks worse till it gets closer. Maybe you East Tennessee folks can score. This winter just doesn’t have it. I will have to see it to believe it at this point. Just getting to late in the year for a lot of confidence. After the first 10 days of March it gets real tough to have enough cold for snow. With all the cold mirages this year at 10-14 days this year it’s hard to count on the middle of March in west and middle Tennessee. Sorry for the doubt, I hope I am wrong.

At this time of year I will watch this from afar while continuing on toward spring. If it gets within 3 days and is showing a good snowfall I will start monitoring closer. This time of year as long as it’s not severe or vodka cold I am happy. No matter what I will be right back cheering on next years winter chances. This winter at least gave a white Christmas and a week long super cold outbreak with 2 small snows. But mostly this winter has been a lamb that tries occasionally to be a lion, only to prove it’s not. We are fixing to get the final 4th quarter grade for winter. Time for ol man winter to go big or leave no doubt that 2022-23 was a pure lamb for Tennessee.

I have no doubt on it being different. Just thought the early March possibilities may have already disappeared. Haven’t been keeping up daily as I am preparing for mowing season. If things are out in 10-12 day land In another 8-10 days my white towel may get thrown into the ring. I have already accepted this winter is likely pretty much over but still hold out hope for one good quick hitter anyway. But I will always take a good snowstorm inside the first 10-12 days of March. But at this point I don’t want any vodka cold that shunts growing season. If it’s going to do something I hope it happens by mid March or good riddance to 22-23 winter. But now if March wanted to end in a series of grand winter events that is fine with me. It could even be a grade changer if that happened. I guess time will tell, there is still time. But we are approaching mid 4th quarter and we need a TD bad and we are pretty deep in our own territory. But March can be full of surprises. I just hope something is well within 10 days by the 1st of March or sooner.

What happened with the 5th-10th window?

I’m not throwing in the towel for a snow in my area. But the window is closing, the 10 day looks just haven’t materialized well at all this year. But we will see. I see nothing to be excited about pretty much all the way through February now. Maybe somebody across Tennessee will score, I would give East Tennessee the nod for best chances for a good event. But then again we are in Tennessee, where almost anything is possible if not probable.

Here in northwest middle Tennessee in late winter the late feb- early March is usually the ticket. If we get a good snow or sleet event that stays on the ground and makes a major impact it usually happens in the first 10 days of March. Now through history there have been a few exceptions where it has come later. Just last year we received 3.2 inches on the 12th of March. We had a huge snow here on the 7-8th of March in 2009 of 9 inches. We had a massive sleet storm of 7 inches followed by a week of very cold temps that left roads in terrible conditions for days in 2015 I believe. The Clarksville area did totally whiff on the superstorm of 93 and that was heartbreaking. But I also remember a few deep march snows when I was younger but they always seemed to melt quickly. I remember on in the 70’s where there was 10 inches on the ground at 5 in the morning and was almost entirely gone by dinner time the next day. It certainly can happen in March, but I will be looking to see how the last week of February and the first week of March shake out. Usually if we crank out a good late season winter event that is the prime for West and Middle Tennessee. Now for my friends on this forum in East Tennessee your chances remain higher further in March and even into early April no doubt. Good afternoon folks!

I love reading your long range looks. Many years weather just never lines up right no matter how things look in the long range. The weather can throw curves at the most seasoned weather forecasters. Being in the mowing business after the middle of March comes my mind focuses to spring. This just seems like the year that more times than none things fall apart inside 8-10 days. At least I have recorded 3.2 inches of snow with the 2 systems right before and after Christmas. And we had 2 waves of a decent but thankfully not a bad ice storm. If I don’t get anymore at this point I will not be surprised. I would gladly take a decent to good snow event or even 2 before then. I just don’t feel it is going to happen for west or middle Tennessee this year but I would love to be wrong. Still it’s Tennessee and never say never. Tennessee can go either way in winter, folks that have lived here any length of time find that out. There is always next winter even if this one folds early. Thanks to all the folks that add great input here, it is much appreciated. Go Vols!!!!