Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 56 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Obviously one run, but this would have to be a record week for East TN if it did occur. Just nuts. While I don't expect this to come to fruition, I do think this does highlight that we have a genuine shot of a great couple of weeks of winter. And yeah, not overrunning, but not sure what you call those events that happen after Christmas. I think I will just go with amazing. lol I think right now with seven days to go, there is still going to be a lot of variation. With each run new model data is added, which changes the results some. This is also the range in which modeling often "loses" systems (5-7 days). For now, we have an Arctic front rushing into the area and a slp popping on the lee side of the Apps and maybe another on the coast. Spacing could also be an issue. We have gone from almost nothing in the pattern to multiple vortices and waves - lots to juggle. With each tweek of each new vortex, it changes all of it. A Miller A, a frontal wave, overrunning...or nothing. The first three make the most since given the strength of the front to quote John. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think right now with seven days to go, there is still going to be a lot of variation. With each run new model data is added, which changes the results some. This is also the range in which modeling often "loses" systems (5-7 days). For now, we have an Arctic front rushing into the area and a slp popping on the lee side of the Apps and maybe another on the coast. Spacing could also be an issue. We have gone from almost nothing in the pattern to multiple vortices and waves - lots to juggle. With each tweek of each new vortex, it changes all of it. A Miller A, a frontal wave, overrunning...or nothing. The first three make the most since given the strength of the front to quote John. Our energy is over Russia currently. It hits the Canadian coastline in 5 days. We have a LONG way to go with this first event. Key for the next 2-3 days will continue to be the ensembles. Typically when the OPs lose a storm in this range and it is a legit threat the ensembles don't budge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Here is the Kuchera of the 6z GFS run(again...you all know the rules about taking the GFS seriously at the moment).... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 While the Kuchera map above seems destined for the scrap heap, it does represent what "could" happen with overrunning into very, very cold air. If we want a big storm, we have to be willing to live on that boundary of dry/cold and what appears to be the GOM trying to be open for business. That storm track has shown up on modeling multiple times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Regardless of snow or no snow from the 23rd through the 28th, I'm happy for the ski resorts. Looks like they will get off to a banner year and have plenty of great weather to make snow. After a few crippling duds the last 5 years, I'm glad to see them have an opportunity to get off to a good start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 While the Kuchera map above seems destined for the scrap heap, it does represent what "could" happen with overrunning into very, very cold air. If we want a big storm, we have to be willing to live on that boundary of dry/cold and what appears to be the GOM trying to be open for business. That storm track has shown up on modeling multiple times. You can basically take our last rain maker and turn it into snow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I think right now with seven days to go, there is still going to be a lot of variation. With each run new model data is added, which changes the results some. This is also the range in which modeling often "loses" systems (5-7 days). For now, we have an Arctic front rushing into the area and a slp popping on the lee side of the Apps and maybe another on the coast. Spacing could also be an issue. We have gone from almost nothing in the pattern to multiple vortices and waves - lots to juggle. With each tweek of each new vortex, it changes all of it. A Miller A, a frontal wave, overrunning...or nothing. The first three make the most since given the strength of the front to quote John. My only concern is that systems get crushed by the cold. Is that a possibility? Or are there other dynamics at play from preventing that outcome? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: My only concern is that systems get crushed by the cold. Is that a possibility? Or are there other dynamics at play from preventing that outcome? Sure. The good thing w/ a -NA0 is that it tends to shunt systems west -> east. This is a powerful block, so I think anything is on the table regarding suppression - overrunning to cold/dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 No complaints w/ the 12z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS is a Miller A - slightly organized, but take a look at it and you will see its point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yep. That'll do. Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 The 12z GFS stalls out the system over eastern NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 At 186, the slp is crawling towards the benchmark at a hefty 965. The block won't let it escape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 At 192 is is again stalled on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Well, someone feel free to post the Kuchara map. Whoa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 When I am having to find the ' instead of the "....you know that was a big run. GFS...all caveats apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We ready to create a thread for this system or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Well, someone feel free to post the Kuchara map. Whoa. Looks like the second system (26th-27th)is setting up nicely with that run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Eye candy as Carver mentioned. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It's....it's beautiful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: No complaints w/ the 12z GFS. lol. Quote of the year from an east TN perspective…. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I’ll take that run verbatim and move on to spring please 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Looks like the second system (26th-27th)is setting up nicely with that run too. Unless I’m looking at the wrong run, the 26-27th look dry and cold to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Unless I’m looking at the wrong run, the 26-27th look dry and cold to me I’m looking at the wrong run because I’m an idiot. Apologies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: I’m looking at the wrong run because I’m an idiot. Apologies. Happens to all of us! No problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS is on a island right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: GFS is on a island right? . It's liable to be way off but it did this in March this year when the Euro was reluctant to get on board at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 48 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Eye candy as Carver mentioned. This would shut up the old timers about how "it used to snow so much" follow this up with multiple runs to zero and below and you have a historic event across ETN for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's liable to be way off but it did this in March this year when the Euro was reluctant to get on board at this range. Seems like the UKie is following the GFS trends too, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Safe to say that if, big "if", that 12z GFS run came to fruition...much of the eastern half of the US is closed during busiest travel time of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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