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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip.

So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close.

Thought this week's storm was bringin' the cold air in, lol

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And then it rains on us for Christmas. That's more likely.

Basically it does the same thing as 18z yesterday, except it's 24 hours later and without the snow.

We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip.

So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close.

Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now 

sounds like the redskins offensive line

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast.

yes but too far east and we are toast with having the storm track miss with and hit the fish...never easy

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now 

I was looking at that, and I could tell that something was amiss, but I honestly don't have the skillz to really identify - and especially explain -  the hows and whys things happen the way they do.

I found it interesting that there were two storms nearly back to back, whereas previous runs squashed that initial wave. Again...I think I know why that happened, but my explanation would probably suck. :lol:

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. 

I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th.  B)

All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning sign, but we’re at a low point :lol: 

If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning side, but we’re at a low point :lol: 

If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week.

My issue is that it showed another cutter before that one, I have never been on the pattern cancel train but it's upsetting to have it "delayed" again according to this one run. That said its just one Euro and CMC run but if it comes true I'll be slightly upset. How likely do you think it is that we get another cutter after this one? 

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