WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I feel targeted by this post 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. It’s the gfs. That’s how it rolls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 There's a vort that drops down the California coast and ends up in about the same spot as our vort did at 18z yesterday, but things look different up top. Lots of confluence, cold air is getting established, and then things get their act together along the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I think I can hear the Jaws theme.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s the gfs. That’s how it rolls But it finds a way to get a storm rolling in Texas/the Gulf at nearly the same time as it did yesterday. Good patterns somehow find a way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: I think I can hear the Jaws theme.... Unless that thing gets squashed, then Amity is in for a smashing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Mix to Ice deal for us and the CMC is setting up another cutter for Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: But it finds a way to get a storm rolling in Texas/the Gulf at nearly the same time as it did yesterday. Good patterns somehow find a way... It just likes to snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: 12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. Thought this week's storm was bringin' the cold air in, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Miller A icefest. Somehow I don't think it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 And then it rains on us for Christmas. That's more likely. Basically it does the same thing as 18z yesterday, except it's 24 hours later and without the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: And then it rains on us for Christmas. That's more likely. Basically it does the same thing as 18z yesterday, except it's 24 hours later and without the snow. We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Sadly seems to be the way storms have gone the last few years. We get cold but then storms just cut right up 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Miller A icefest. Somehow I don't think it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+. I need Christmas purrn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, mattie g said: Unless that thing gets squashed, then Amity is in for a smashing. The horror ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I'd take my chances with Miller As coming out of the south at the end of December. Like the gfs is showing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: 12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now sounds like the redskins offensive line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. yes but too far east and we are toast with having the storm track miss with and hit the fish...never easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now I was looking at that, and I could tell that something was amiss, but I honestly don't have the skillz to really identify - and especially explain - the hows and whys things happen the way they do. I found it interesting that there were two storms nearly back to back, whereas previous runs squashed that initial wave. Again...I think I know why that happened, but my explanation would probably suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, Amped said: I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. I'm really surprised that you're taking the pessimistic route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. It's only fun when it's on the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 WB GEFS, on queue, prob maps are good!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ji said: euro dosent seem too interested Euro, that’s the model that showed me getting 24” of snow 48hrs ago right… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning sign, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS, on queue, prob maps are good!!! Some of that for the NW areas is for the late week deal, which we know is going to be slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning side, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week. My issue is that it showed another cutter before that one, I have never been on the pattern cancel train but it's upsetting to have it "delayed" again according to this one run. That said its just one Euro and CMC run but if it comes true I'll be slightly upset. How likely do you think it is that we get another cutter after this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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