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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey ya 'all.   I have not been on the forms much lately.  Busy with other stuff.  I just happened to look at the crazy 18Z GFS Kuchera clown map through the whole run.  Can we lock in the 45-55" of snow for a good chunk of CNE/NNE?   Wake me up when we are within about 5 days or so.

 

Screenshot 2022-12-07 192713.jpg

Poor Tolland? Surgical strike by the NCEP guys.

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Hey ya 'all.   I have not been on the forms much lately.  Busy with other stuff.  I just happened to look at the crazy 18Z GFS Kuchera clown map through the whole run.  Can we lock in the 45-55" of snow for a good chunk of CNE/NNE?   Wake me up when we are within about 5 days or so.
 
789569768_Screenshot2022-12-07192713.jpg.0cd04c6614c01edd3fd097f3e4a9246c.jpg

That map was drawn by a NE skier.


.
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The thing about windy storms, is that you don’t have a lot of compaction the next day. I realize that I absolutely cannot stand seeing a softly fallen snow compact to half its depth in eight hours. The worst is when you see those lines on the fence where the snow was and then where it is currently. That just makes me angry.

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

18z vs. 12z EPS a touch less robust for 12/12 system... can't see H5 but guessing continues 12z-18z theme today of greater block... fluctuations in outcomes today but certainly track-worthy, especially if shortwave comes in stronger

12/12 is a lost cause for me....Ground Hog day finding a way to LBSW. Need the one after because if that is rain, I may lose it early on.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12/12 is a lost cause for me....Ground Hog day finding a way to LBSW. Need the one after because if that is rain, I may lose it early on.

I messaged Ant to see if he could take some videos of him doing donuts in the cruiser in snow covered parking lots down in NYC and send them to you Monday.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The thing about windy storms, is that you don’t have a lot of compaction the next day. I realize that I absolutely cannot stand seeing a softly fallen snow compact to half its depth in eight hours. The worst is when you see those lines on the fence where the snow was and then where it is currently. That just makes me angry.

Gotta have wind. And lots of it...

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The thing about windy storms, is that you don’t have a lot of compaction the next day. I realize that I absolutely cannot stand seeing a softly fallen snow compact to half its depth in eight hours. The worst is when you see those lines on the fence where the snow was and then where it is currently. That just makes me angry.

Angry enough to attack a snowblower with a shovel?

308D996E-5484-4B43-B4B4-2B717C0AD908.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I messaged Ant to see if he could take some videos of him doing donuts in the cruiser in snow covered parking lots down in NYC and send them to you Monday.

Watch the block be strong enough to  crunch Monday, but not enough to deflect Friday far enough south. 

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12/12 is a lost cause for me....Ground Hog day finding a way to LBSW. Need the one after because if that is rain, I may lose it early on.

Yeah I hear you. I'd say more smeared southeast than too early LBSW

Maybe ensembles last night were a flash in the pan and we'll see the block dominate going forward.

Still very possible to get a better outcome, e.g. if shortwave comes in stronger

In any case, I'm just hoping to see my first flakes lol...

Similar to your outlook, I'm keeping my higher expectations for more favorable PNA hopefully late December into January

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boxing Day must have been your favorite. 50 mph winds whipping dryslot snow grains. 

Those are the storms where a foot of snow is blown off certain spots on the driveway. I’m pretty sure that was the storm parts of the lawn in exposed spots had grass blades showing after 10+ while other spots had feet 

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah I hear you. I'd say more smeared southeast than too early LBSW

Maybe ensembles last night were a flash in the pan and we'll see the block dominate going forward.

Still very possible to get a better outcome, e.g. if shortwave comes in stronger

In any case, I'm just hoping to see my first flakes lol...

Similar to your outlook, I'm keeping my higher expectations for more favorable PNA hopefully late December into January

Semantics...I don't mean LBSW as in occlusion. It gets shunted further se the more ne it comes. 

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may just need ro rinse this 12 year la nina out once and for all and start with a clean slate.

I’ll take slack for this.. said it for years but I hate Nina’s. In a general sense they are not good for New England .Sure a rare few have been with the right ducks lined up .. but overall we want neutral or Nino . When I see a Nina .. I always prepare for a subpar winter 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll take slack for this.. said it for years but I hate Nina’s. In a general sense they are not good for New England .Sure a rare few have been with the right ducks lined up .. but overall we want neutral or Nino . When I see a Nina .. I always prepare for a subpar winter 

 I would rather have el nino all things equal, but a super el nino is the worst

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