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Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday

Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing more on-brand than the NAM reminding everyone cheering at a colder surface that Mother Nature can still find other ways to end your fun :lol:.

Its been very consistent showing sleety profiles lifting north.

Yeah it’s just something to watch for people like Dave and Ineedsnow.  Better for you as you get into the meat of this. 

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Getting snowier 

GEFS ensemble mean accumulations are up
to about 2" north of the Rte 2 corridor, which seems more realistic
than the 00Z deterministic ECMWF which brings accumulations of over
5" to the western reaches of our CWA. Given the trends mentioned
above, favoring lower end accumulations with this update, with a
coating to 2" inches possible north and west of Worcester and in the
high terrain of northern CT, with 3"+ totals isolated to the highest
elevations of the Berkshires.
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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is pretty mild 925-850 south of rt 2 when precip starts. You’ll have to hope for one of those initial bands to ride out well ahead and get the show started as snow I think because verbatim I don’t think much would fall as snow on the euro.

As usual people are rushing things 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is like 1-2 for Kev into ORH areas maybe 2-3 for Dave and Ineedweenies. I think those clown maps are more realistic as HRRR explicitly depicts snow unlike some other models. Caveat being 10:1 ratios shown and it likely will be less so probably lower range of totals?

All about rates....if it's SN- at 33F for 2-3 hours, it's gonna be mostly coatings to an inch...but if you can sneak in an hour of SN or SN+ at 31-32F, then there will be some 2" amounts prob.

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Nothings really changed… Better snow chances are C -northern New England. 

38/21  Full sun. Winter atmosphere with ease this hr  

In the interest of now casting this thing probably watch the behavior of advection over the next 24 hours.  And also it’s not so far-fetched to monitor the environmental feedback‘s… Such as if it’s clear tonight and decoupled it’s going to bottom out … then, we may actually “ CAC” tomorrow morning …end up with a low level boundary layer cold feedback that way. I think that for people north of Hartford and west of I 495 in Massachusetts up to SE VT and S NH theres a potential for some ice.  

it’s a good practice event… In a month we probably frontload this event with better snow performance… at least per guidance look. And there’s still some small chance of this thing busting colder so long as the high is draped north and the low does cut southeast 


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