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Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday


Typhoon Tip
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Obviously we've been over this and over this late Tuesday through Wednesday ordeal.  The event itself is both not a novel reach, and is of higher confidence.  What has low confidence are the weather types at discrete scales. At minimum, it will "smell" like winter (haha, making progress!) regardless, ...with that mix of cold water and distant wood smoke.   It's worth note/coverage as the first synoptic cold season system.

  •  the recent larger scale hemispheric pattern change has finished reconstructing the total manifold around one that typically does enhance the potential for eastern/east coastal cyclogenesis.  This event late Tuesday through Wednesday, regardless of total and/or specific "backyard" impacts, is a winter storm, with all the metrics in play.  There is a strong baroclinic gradient situating early in the week .. roughly VA to coastal New England astride the coast, do to that change. 
  • thinking is .5 to .75" liq equiv, and much if not all of it will likely be liquid SE of ~ HFD-BED. NW of that rough axis ...I'm a little intrigued at lower cold handling, and the fact that as we get near, there is a sneaking attempt to apply more lag to the cold ptypes.
  • my personal view is that the boundary layer may not be handled entirely well with still 72 to 84 hours in the till before we start counting flakes or raindrops on this.  We have a low with an apparent pulse of deepening as it passes between the Benchmark and Cape Cod Wednesday afternoon, while there is a modest +PP draped C-NNE.  What part of our geo-physics ever allows the interior to warm in that set up - it essentially can't.  There's likely to be a "tuck" acceleration of BL/925mb flow ...and whether that crashes back to 34 or 31 is a now-cast aspect.  But ice is not impossible there.
  • snow vs rain vs ice ...will it be cold enough?  +1 to +2C 850mb type NW cyclone arcs typically due tick closer to an isothermal 0 C as the event in question nears in modeled range... Modeling advances in recent year haven't tested that enough.  The 12z guidance did trend upward with snow chance ...mainly west of the ORH Hills and along RT 2...  not surprised.  However, with the larger synoptics described above... I don't see this getting warmer. It's really more a matter of being cold enough.  That's the direction of the correction vectoring.   I like 1-3" for NW Mass... and cat paws and with occasional soaked cotton balls west of I-495 for now, and this will increase going north into central NE and N-NE.  It is not impossible for this to trend more wintry in the intermediate interior.

 

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NAM is pretty warm aloft, but a good initial thump especially near the MA-NH-VT border on north. It is something to watch though. 
 

The high is in a decent spot as Tip said. Not really retreating so that good. That look usually is kind to the east facing slopes with the upslope cooling. So you’ll probably wetbulb nicely in areas that start as snow. 
 

You’ll also want to get a good initial thump too. You want to see good lift into the DGZ to help drop temps from wetbulbing. Gfs was sort of meh it seemed with rates. I don’t know how that will play out, but pay attn to soundings over the next 24 hours. If you can’t get the good lift, it will be a lot of sleet and cold rain. 

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles.  probably we'll lock tomorrow evening...  then now cast.   Welcome to marginal season. 

Low got stronger and even ticked north from 12z, tracking over the Cape Cod bridge, and the result seemed to be a bit more compact and cold on the north side.  Probably the hope is to get it as strong/dynamic as possible for those borderline thermals?

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles.  probably we'll lock tomorrow evening...  then now cast.   Welcome to marginal season. 

The trend seems to have gone colder today, Its more of a thread the needle scenario the further east you are, SLP looked to track over the elbow this run into the GOM, 3mb stronger too.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The trend seems to have gone colder today, Its more of a thread the needle scenario the further east you are, SLP looked to track over the elbow this run into the GOM so that was a couple tics east too from 12z.

Tick tick. I thought it went more NW with the SFC :lol:.  Love the nitpicking we do.

12z then 18z… 12z missed the Cape all together.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tick tick. I thought it went more NW with the SFC :lol:.  Love the nitpicking we do.

12z then 18z

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I had made an edit, I went back and compared the two closer, Not really that i wanted to yet but it was a bit NW as you say and about 3mb stronger too, Definitely colder at the surface here.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I went back and compared the two closer, Not really that i wanted to yet but it was a bit NW as you say and about 3mb stronger too, Definitely colder at the surface here.

I would imagine the stronger surface would help with NE surface flow there as the low trajectory is more east than north tracking?  Stronger that gets and moving east I’d think you’d drain cold in faster.  As it goes over the canal you are strengthening NE surface winds.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I would imagine the stronger surface would help with NE surface flow there as the low trajectory is more east than north tracking?  Stronger that gets and moving east I’d think you’d drain cold in faster.  As it goes over the canal you are strengthening NE surface winds.

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Yes better if its tracking more north and east pulling the boundary east instead of west more inland, Its still going to be tricky here better to the west.

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5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So much weenie joy. Fingers crossed it comes about. The let down could get ugly.

I don't think it would be a let down, I'm more interested to see which model performs the best going into the rest of winter, Snow avgs are pretty low for many in Nov.

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